Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

So here we are, at long last; the Super Bowl. It took five grueling months, but we have reached what should be an excellent game to cap off the season.

I’d like to take this last intro of the season to apologize to my readers for the Dime this season.

No, not my sub-par record. There is nothing I can do about that; you know I give it my all when it comes to capping, and you know I suck. That’s nothing new.

What bothers me is that I didn’t put the passion into my work that I always have in years’ past, and my loyal readers deserve more.

It’s been a really, really difficult season for me. I was fired from the job that I moved 1500 miles away from all of my friends and family to accept on Thursday, September 10th; opening day of the 2009 NFL season. Not the greatest omen to start the year off with.

Over the course of the last five months (wow, has it really only been five months?), I’ve had my world turned completely upside down. I’ve had to seriously question whether or not my heart is still in sports journalism (something I’m still not sure of) for the first time in a long time. I’ve had to move 1500 miles out of my own pocket for the second time in less than a year, get unpacked and settled in in a new place, all the while struggling with some serious life decisions that I today seem no closer to solving than I did five months ago.

To say I’ve been a bit distracted would be quite an understatement. I’ve done the best I could under the circumstances, but a lot of my work was abrubt and uninspired this year, and that’s why I feel the need to apologize.

I’m so grateful to have so many of you take the time to read the Dime and support me. It means a great deal to me. Thank you so much for everything, your support and your understanding.

On that note, let’s get to the big game. Have a great Super Bowl Sunday and a great offseason as well! Drop me a line anytime.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
OVER/UNDER: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Playoffs
With the spread: 3 – 7 – 0 (.300)
Without the spread: 4 – 6 – 0 (.400)
OVER/UNDER: 4 – 6 – 0 (.400)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

SUNDAY

#1 New Orlean Saints (+5.0) @ #1 Indianapolis Colts (-5.0)
For all of the twists and turns that this NFL season has thrown our way, we’ve actually ended up with the dream matchup that seemed scripted from the start of the season. The two teams that got off to 13-0 starts and earned home field advantage throughout the playoffs both used that advantage to earn a trip to the Super Bowl.

So who comes out on top? With only one shared opponent (and that opponent being the hapless St. Louis Rams), it’s difficult to gauge how these teams will match up against eachother. All we can really use are the stats we have and our instincts.

If the Saints are going to win this game, they are going to do so by running the ball effectively. Obviously the attention in this one is on the quarterbacks and the potential for a shootout; but it is interesting to note that one of New Orleans’ biggest statistical advantages is in the running game. Their 131.63 yards per game was good for 6th best in the NFL, and the Colts’ 126.5 rushing yards against ranked 24th in the NFL. If the Saints can run the ball effectively, it will not only keep the defense honest and open up the passing game for Drew Brees, but it will also keep Peyton Manning off of the field.

As for the Colts, the bread and butter is clearly still in the passing game. Dwight Freeney playing at less then 100% will obviously hurt, but getting to Drew Brees has been a tough task all season anyway, and no one is expecting the Saints to get shut down completely. The Saints take the NFL’s 4th best passing attack (272.19 YPG) up against the 14th ranked pass defense (212.69 YPG). Peyton Manning, meanwhile, leads the league’s second best passing offense (282.19 YPG) against the leagur’s 26th ranked passing defense (235.56 YPG).

In a game that seems destined to rest on the shoulders of the quarterbacks, Manning’s Colts seem to have a clear advantage in the passing game.

I also think the Colts’ experience helps them in a big way here. They’ve been here before, handled this media blitz before, handled this pressure before. For the Saints, this is all new and surreal, and even for the most focused of teams it will be difficult not to get a little caught up in the moment.

I think the Colts win this one, and cover. Might be good news for you superstitious Saints fans; I’m rooting for the Colts, and the team I have rooted for in the Super Bowl has lost 12 of the last 13 years, which I’m fairly certain is the worst active stretch in the United States of America.

The one win, though, was the Colts over the Bears three years ago. Let’s see if Peyton can do it again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 56.5: Over

Good Luck!
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