Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

First thing is first; thank you guys so much for all of the support!

These aren’t easy times, and having so many of you guys take a few minutes out of your day to email and wish me well really means a lot to me. When Sunday rolls around and I find myself cursing at the TV when all my games are going wrong and wondering why the hell I do the Dime in the first place, you guys always find ways of reminding me. So thank you.

As we enter week five, we now have a whole month of football under our belts, so now we actually somewhat know what to expect from these teams. The problem is, so do the linesmakers, who are always one step ahead.

That said, I’m more than happy to escape the murky waters that are the first four weeks with a .500 record. For the first week all season I feel like I have a pretty good grasp on things, so let’s get started!

(Of course, feeling confident can also lead to a nice 2-12 punch in the face; but hopefully the Gambling Gods will be nice. I’ve been screwed over enough!)

THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)

^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 31 – 31 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 38 – 24 – 0 (.613)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 – 3 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Pretty remarkable… home teams went 12-2 against the spread last week.

THE GOOD

Detroit (+10.0) @ Chicago (-10.0) W
Cincinnati (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0) W
N.Y. Giants (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0) W
Seattle (+10.0) @ Indianapolis (-10.0) W
Buffalo @ Miami (Pick’em) W
San Diego (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0) W

THE BAD

Tennessee (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0) L
Oakland (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0) L
Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5) L
St. Louis (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:
Baltimore (+2.0) @ New England (-2.0) L
N.Y. Jets (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0) L
Dallas (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0) L
Green Bay (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Baltimore (-9.0)
This is a bit ridiculous, isn’t it? If not for an absurd fluke play against Denver, Cincinnati would be undefeated. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Cincinnati has shown that they can compete this year; and as much as I love the new-look offense in Baltimore, the defense has not been it’s usual shutdown self. Baltimore could win this one by double digits, but I have far too much respect for the Bengals to pass up on 9 points in a division rivalry.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Cleveland (+6.0) @ Buffalo (-6.0)
When two teams that seem to go out of their way to lose games meet up, it’s hard to even imagine either of them coming out on top. Conventional wisdom would say to take the points in a game like this; but I actually see Buffalo covering in this one. On top of the homefield advantage and coming off of an embarassing loss, Cleveland also trades away one of it’s best offensive weapons. Buffalo is bad, but not THIS bad. At least I don’t think so… we’ll find out Sunday.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Washington (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0)
As Washington struggles through three of the absolute worst teams in the league, everyone has written them off; and the offense is downright dreadful, don’t get me wrong. But what has Carolina done any better? Their offense has been pretty useless too, and unlike the Redskins who have at least been getting good defense, Carolina’s defense hasn’t slowed down anyone this year. This one looks like a pretty even matchup to me, so I’ve gotta take the points. I’ll take the straight up upset too, while I’m at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit (+10.5)
Terrible Detroit gets blown out by Chicago, defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh dominates the Chargers at home… Stafford injured… doesn’t this one seem a little too easy? 80% of bettors seem to think so, yet the line mysteriously moves from 11.5 to 10.5. Hmmm… don’t really quite see how Detroit’s defense stops the Steelers, but that’s the fun of philosophy picks sometimes; watching the madness unfold.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Dallas (-7.5) @ Kansas City (+7.5)
A lot of people love Kansas City and the points here, but what if you entertain the notion that the Broncos defense really is that good? At this point, I’m certainly willing to. And while the Cowboys may not be an NFC powerhouse any more, they are still perfectly capible of dismantling the bottom-feeder types; and I expect them to do just that this week, even on the road.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Oakland (+15.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-15.0)
As a general rule, I will not lay more than two touchdowns in the NFL. This isn’t college football; it’s the pros. But in breaking down this game, this is such a disasterous matchup for the Raiders that I can’t find any reason to believe they will cover. The Raiders are decimated by injuries on offense, Jamarcus Russell is getting no guidance whatsoever from the coaching staff, and with McFadden, Miller, and Schilens all out, the Raiders are hurting bad for playmakers. Meanwhile, on defense, the Raiders refuse to break from the man-to-man despite it being terribly outdated in today’s NFL; and with the way Eli Manning and his wide receivers are playing, whoever isn’t being covered by Asomugha should have a field day. You could take the Raiders and pray for some special teams or defensive touchdowns, but this one looks about as hopeless as it gets.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay (+15.0) @ Philadelphia (-15.0)
Again, I really really hate laying this kind of chalk in the NFL, and I know I’m going to pay for it. But my formula churns out about a 4-TD victory for the Eagles here, and Andy Reid is notoriously great off of bye weeks, too. Figuring out this Tampa Bay offense should be a lot more like a jumbo 100-piece puzzle than a rubik’s cube. Again, maybe the “smart” thing to do is take the points, but I just can’t in this one either.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Minnesota (-10.0) @ St. Louis (+10.0)
This game is pretty much as philosophical as they come.

One team that is nationally adored by the media and bettors, undefeated, unstoppable. The other team that hasn’t won a game that people are picking to possibly go winless this season that is considered absolute bottom of the barrel.

Even better, Minnesota is coming off of a highly-emotional Monday Night Football game against a division rival; a prime letdown situation. Especially considering HOW emotional and huge that game was, the letdown crash should be even bigger. St. Louis is coming off of a humiliating 35-0 loss. Aaand Minnesota has a huge game to look forward to next week against Baltimore.

All of that doesn’t spell out how perfect of a philosophical pick this is? How about NINETY percent of the public on Minnesota?

This one is so textbook I even have to take the Rams to win it outright. Don’t get me wrong, Minnesota is the MUCH better team. But the NFL is all about the unexpected, and just about every emotional factor points in St. Louis’s favor Sunday.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis

Atlanta (+2.5) @ San Francisco (-2.5)
They aren’t flashy and they don’t pretend to be, but the San Francisco 49ers are a smash mouth football team that goes out and wins football games. I like Atlanta quite a bit, but they are still running off of last year’s reputation; this year San Francisco has been the better team, and at home, I’m going to take them until they give me a good reason not to.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New England (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
As a die-hard Raider fan, it brings me no joy to say this; but I’m sold on this Denver defense. For four games this team has shut down any and all comers. New England might be the team to buck that trend; but the numbers point to Denver here. Only reason the spread is where it is right now is because of the logos on the helmets. As a Bronco-hater I’d be happy to be wrong, but they are the pick this week; especially getting points at home.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Jacksonville (+1.0) @ Seattle (-1.0)
Total toss-up; even with Hasselbeck starting, can Seattle slow down a Jacksonville offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders? I think that they can; I feel like part of the reason the Seahawks defense has struggled is because the offense has put them in tough spots. I also think the Jags are due for an off-week offensively. That said, I never seem to get these two teams right; so who knows?

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Houston (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Alright, I agree; a dominating effort against the Raiders doesn’t mean that your weaknesses are magically fixed. That said, Arizona has only lit up the scoreboard once in their three games this season; twice the offense has looked very pedestrian. Against a weak Houston defense they’ll probably get their share of points; but I don’t think they’ll do much to stop Houston from doing the same. 6 points is a lot in what looks like a close game to me.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5)
An undefeated Colts team VS. a winless Titans team; the Titans being a division rival and a home dog here. As enticing as it may be, this isn’t your every day 0-4 home dog; for the last two weeks, Tennessee has been getting far too few points because they are “due to win”. Pretty clear that Albert Haynesworth’s presence is missed, because the defense has been awful. This may very well be the week, but there is nothing in the numbers that leads me to believe that 3.5 points is enough to take the Titans. Oh, and it’s Peyton Manning in a night game. I’ll take my chances.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

N.Y. Jets (-1.5) @ Miami (+1.5)
Tons of money is coming in on the Jets side, and while I was originally thinking this spread felt kind of trap-like, I needed to remind myself that the Jets are coming off of a 14 point loss and the Dolphins are coming off of a 28 point win. So the spread is what it is. To me, it looks like two strong defenses VS. two quiet offenses with rookie QBs at the helm. Without a strong opinion, I’m left going with my gut feeling of fading the public and counting on the home-field advantage Monday Night.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami
THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 16 – 15 – 2 (.516)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 6 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlvkXXIYxoE

Rice +11.0
Arizona State -20.5
Colorado +32.5
Memphis +2.0
Florida -7.5
Arizona/Washington Over 52.5

Good Luck This Week!
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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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