Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

At first, I was pretty damn excited about my little hot streak.

Over the last two weeks, after going .500 for the first month of the season, I’ve managed to go a combined 18-10. Pretty awesome if I do say so myself.

Week 5: 9 – 5

Week 6: 9 – 5

I’ve also had three straight winning weeks in college football, with a 4-2 record two weeks ago, a 2-1-1 record last week, and a 3-1-1 record yesterday.

Three week total: 9-5-2

Normally, I’m thrilled to pick 64% winners. But I can’t help but wonder; is this repeating NINE TO FIVE thing the Gambling Gods’ way of mocking me for being unemployed?!? Trust me, I already think of 9 to 5 jobs all day and how badly I need one, I don’t need reminders!

On the bright side, if this is the Gambling Gods’ way of having a laugh at my expense, I can live with it. Glad they didn’t give me the early evening shift (4 – 10). Then again, I probably shouldn’t give them any ideas.

I wouldn’t mind working, say, one hour a day… maybe 12-1?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
Without the spread: 11 – 3 – 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 49 – 41 – 0 (.544)
Without the spread: 58 – 32 – 0 (.644)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 5 – 4 – 0 (.556)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0) W
Houston (+5.5) @ Cincinnati (-5.5) W
Kansas City (+6.0) @ Washington (-6.0) W
N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) W
Philadelphia (-14.0) @ Oakland (+14.0) W
Arizona (+3.0) @ Seattle (-3.0) W
Tennessee (+9.0) @ New England (-9.0) W
Chicago (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0) W
Denver (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5) W

THE BAD

Detroit (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0) L
St. Louis (+9.5) @ Jacksonville (-9.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0) L
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Buffalo (+9.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-9.5)
FIVE picks? Yikes.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Indianapolis (-14.0) @ St. Louis (+14.0)
Undefeated versus winless. The ultimate David VS. Goliath. 90% of the betting public on Indy -14, 92% on them money line. St. Louis has already burned me numerous times this year, but I just don’t know that they get much more philosophical than this (I said that last time they blew it against Minnesota, too). My model spits out a final score of Indianapolis 45 – St. Louis 7. That looks about right to me; but sticking to my philosophy guns, I must take the worst team in football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New England (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay (+14.5)
And the two touchdown spreads just keep on coming. And unlike years’ past where I feel obligated to take the points, I just don’t this year (obviously the game above is an exception). Putting the amazing effort by Brady last week aside, even if the ’07 Patriots aren’t back, they are still more than capable of stomping Tampa Bay by three touchdowns or more. What makes this different from the game above? The Pats aren’t quite as good as the Colts, and the Bucs aren’t quite as bad as the Rams… which makes the fact that the spread is a brutal half point higher even more interesting. (I know, I don’t always make perfect sense… just smile and nod.)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

San Francisco (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
Okay, so San Francisco got killed by Atlanta before their bye. What does it tell you that they are only +3, on the road, against a team coming off of a big win against Cincinnati? It should remind you that the 49ers are a tough football team, and I have them as the only upset pick I could find on the card today.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco

Minnesota (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0)
Doesn’t this spread just look way off? You have an undefeated Minnesota team coming off of a huge win against Baltimore against a Pittsburgh team that just won a lackluster game against Cleveland. The game actually opened at +4, and despite 65% betting on Minnesota, it moved all the way to +6. Very strange. Could be the difference Polamalu makes, could be Favre maybe looking ahead to what will be an extremely emotional game next week @Green Bay. Either way, +6 looks like a complete gift; and you know how much I hate gift spreads in football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5)
Something tells me this is the game that San Diego breaks out, but Kansas City has been playing pretty strong competitive football against good teams for pretty much the entire year with only one really ugly loss (against Philadelphia). San Diego’s defense has been dreadful, and the Chiefs have proven to be a thorn in San Diego’s side in the past. I’m seeing a close one here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Green Bay (-9.0) @ Cleveland (+9.0)
Last week I picked a terrible team against Green Bay, and I was rewarded with a shutout loss. This time, I think I’ll just take the better football team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

N.Y. Jets (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0)
In case you didn’t notice, the Raiders still haven’t shown any sign of an offense in over a month, with the exception of that one big play. Jets coming off of a crushing defeat to an awful team, Raiders coming off of an incredible upset win; seems like a perfect time to play the Jets to me. As a Raiders fan, I obviously hope I’m wrong here; but the Jets -6 has way too much value to pass up on, and Sanchez will have to be as bad as he was last Sunday for the Raiders to have a chance.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Buffalo (+7.0) @ Carolina (-7.0)
It pains me to pick Buffalo, as this truly is one of the absolute worst teams in football. But how much better is Carolina? Good enough to win this game I’m sure, but I’m not ready to give them 7 points against anyone.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Chicago @ Cincinnati (Pick’em)
Love the Bengals in this spot. Coming off of a loss at home as a favorite, playing another home game the following week. If they were a dog, that’d make them a philosophy pick; but they barely missed it with the PK. No matter, I still love the situation and I love the matchup anyway; I still don’t trust Cutler on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

New Orleans (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0)
Miami has a damn good football team, but New Orleans continues to give us no reason to pick against them with their outstanding play on both sides of the ball. As such, I will continue to do so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Atlanta (+4.5) @ Dallas (-4.5)
Much like the Pittsburgh game, the spread just looks way off in this one, too. Dallas has been very underwhelming this season, while Atlanta as been strong. 75% of the betting action came in on Atlanta +3, yet they moved the spread in Dallas’s favor, enticing even more betting on the Falcons. Like the Steelers game, I’ll take the home favorite since the road dog looks way too obvious in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Arizona (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Funny to see Arizona continue to get no respect. I ask again; who have the Giants beaten this year? They are obviously a top-level team, but I don’t know what they’ve done so far this season to deserve being a touchdown favorite in this spot against a solid Cardinals team. I expect the Giants to find a way to win, but to do so in a good game that comes down to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

MONDAY

Philadelphia (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0)
Last week’s loss to Oakland showed us a very serious weakness on the Eagles; the offensive line. Washington has the defensive line to exploit that (though Haynesworth is questionable), as well as a great defense in general. That said, the Eagles have a great defense as well; and Washington is in complete shambles right now. “Smart” money is probably on the Redskins, getting seven points at home against a division rival. But I really can’t see them scoring, and after getting embarassed by the Raiders last week, I expect Philadelphia to respond in a big way this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 25 – 19 – 4 (.568)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 8 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdzu5YH2qqc

Georgia Tech -5.5 (WIN)
Duke -4 (TIE)
Oregon -10.0 (WIN)
Arizona -7.5 (WIN)
Michigan State -1.5 (LOSS)

Good Luck This Week!
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