Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

So… would you all be cool pretending Weeks 1 through 16 didn’t happen?

Randomly, out of the blue, this random guy sends out his newsletter in Week 17 and goes 11-5 against the spread and 13-3 straight up.

Surely, this amazing man knows his stuff to fare so well! When his playoff picks arrive, they are taken seriously by his now interested fan base.

And wouldn’t you know it! 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU and Over/Under. Who is this mystery man? Clark Kent by day, but SUPERMAN by NFL Newsletter!

Faster than a speed receiver!

More powerful than an offensive lineman!

Able to leap tall point spreads in a single bound!

No one? Damnit. I guess it is hard to spend an entire season as Bozo the Clown and expect people to buy you as Superman in just two short weeks.

But can I at least be Bozo the Clown in an awesome red cape?

…Please?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Without the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
OVER/UNDER: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)

Playoffs
With the spread: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Without the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
OVER/UNDER: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 122 – 128 – 6 (.488)
Without the spread: 150 – 106 – 0 (.586)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 17 – 20 – 0 (.459)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

SATURDAY

#5 Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) @ #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0)
While the two night games are getting more buzz, this is the game I’m looking forward to watching the most. These two teams always play intense, close games that come right down to the wire. For that reason, I’m not sure how anyone can pass in the +3.0 Baltimore is getting, considering the likelihood of a close game even if Pittsburgh does win it. But I’m also taking Baltimore straight up here; not only do I still think that they are the most complete team in the league, but I also think they will be more physically prepared for this game. The Ravens are in full playoff mode now after experiencing a hostile road atmosphere last week; Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is coming off of a bye and two super-soft opponents and easy wins in Cleveland and Carolina. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baltimore jumps out to a small lead early and never looks back. Should be a great defensive battle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 37: Under

#6 Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ #1 Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
So have we all forgotten how good Atlanta is? Or how absolutely dominant Atlanta is at home? I have a ton of respect for Green Bay, and they obviously have a solid shot of winning this game; but it seems that everyone expects them to do so, and I don’t think Atlanta is getting enough credit here. This one has the potential to be the best game of the weekend with two of the best quarterbacks in the game going back and forth, but I expect Atlanta’s offense to have more success than Philadelphia’s did, and for the Falcons to find a way to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
OVER/UNDER 43.5: Over

SUNDAY

#4 Seattle Seahawks (+10.0) @ #2 Chicago Bears (-10.0)
By the numbers, nothing suggests that this will be a contest. Chicago should blow them out. But then, wasn’t that the case last week? Seattle combines a lethal combination of 1) Believing in themselves, and 2) Having no expectations whatsoever. And is Jay Cutler really above having an off game and letting this team stick around? Once again, I’m not brave enough to take them outright here, but I will be taking the points again. Look for a mind-baffling low-scoring game that Chicago winds up winning by a field goal or two.
P ICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
OVER/UNDER 42: Under

#6 New York Jets (+9.0) @ #1 New England Patriots (-9.0)
Nine points? Really? Yes, New England blew the Jets out 45-3 last time around… but New York also handed the Patriots one of their two losses this season. I fully expect the Jets to have a much better defensive effort this time around, and I also expect them to have success on offense this time, too. New England’s young defense has been outstanding over the last month, but the playoffs are a whole new ballgame, and I think they are going to come back down to earth a bit this week. This game really is close to a coin flip in my eyes, and the Jets are a lot better than the amount of smack they talk indicates. In the end, the gap between Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez is too wide for me to side with the Jets; even if Sanchez did best Manning late last week. I’ll take the Patriots to win close in a game that both teams score into the 20’s… but won’t be nearly as surprised as the rest of the football world if New York wins outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 44: Over

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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