Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

There are a lot of things that I am thankful for. NFL football on Thursdays is not one of them.

The turkey and pie tasted a little less happy after going 0-3 ATS Thursday. Brings me to 0-5-1 on Thursday night games this year. Yay.

I must apologize for both getting the Dime out a bit late this weekend and keeping it a bit short. I have a ton of work to do that I am way behind on, which is made even worse by the fact that I still have a bad case of food coma from all the eating this holiday weekend.

So alas, I’d like to spend a bit more time on some “self-depreciating humor” (or as I call it, the sad truth), but I must get this show on the road. Expect a double dose next week; aren’t you in for a treat!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
Without the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 75 – 79 – 6 (.487)
Without the spread: 89 – 71 – 0 (.556)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 11 – 11 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)
Houston (+7.0) @ NY Jets (-7.0)
Oakland (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Baltimore (-11.0) @ Carolina (+11.0)
Seattle (+11.5) @ New Orleans (-11.5)
Indianapolis (+4.0) @ New England (-4.0)
Denver (+10.0) @ San Diego (-10.0)

THE BAD

Chicago (+1.0) @ Miami (-1.0)
Buffalo (+5.5) @ Cincinnati (-5.5)
Detroit (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
Washington (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
Arizona (+8.5) @ Kansas City (-8.5)
Cleveland (+1.5) @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
Atlanta (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
NY Giants (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

THURSDAY

New England (-7.0) @ Detroit (+7.0)
I’ve gone back and forth on this one right up to typing these words, but sadly I think I’ve actually talked myself into taking Detroit with the points, even though it has become an annual tradition for the Lions to get blown out at home over the last few years. Detroit is 4-0 against the spread at home, meaning they’ve played every game tough, and should play with some added pride on Thanksgiving. New England, meanwhile, has to be exhausted; after losing to Cleveland, they’ve had to play two straight emotional games against two of the AFC’s elite in Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, and next week they have another big one against the New York Jets. While I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots ran roughshod over the Lions, I think it is more likely that they play a less-than-stellar game, and end up winning by only a few.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

New Orleans (-3.5) @ Dallas (+3.5)
A lot of people seem to be convinced that Dallas is “back”… but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The upset win over the New York Giants was very impressive, but it’s only a one game sample size; beating Detroit at home doesn’t count for much. New Orleans has found their grove on both sides of the ball lately, and will be tough for any team to beat down the stretch. The way I see it, if Dallas plays at the level they’ve played over the last two games, it could go either way… we’ll say 50/50. If Dallas shows that the Giants game was a fluke (what I’m expecting), New Orleans almost certainly wins comfortably. As such, the percentage play here seems to be New Orleans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ New York Jets (-9.0)
I really hate siding with Cincinnati here, as they’ve burned me all year; but this one looks pretty PHILOSOPHICAL to me, and you know I’ve gotta go with my instincts on those, even if they are only .500 this season. While it’s hard to pick a “most embarrassing” point of this awful season for the Bengals, but giving up 35 unanswered points at home to the worst team in the league to erase a 17-point second half lead has to be pretty high on the list. New York on the other hand is coming off of another crazy last-second win; a big emotional high last week, and like New England, they have to be looking ahead to next week’s big showdown a bit. So it’s that high VS. low angle I love taking the low side of.
But perhaps even more importantly; revenge. Last year, Cincinnati lost to the Jets in Week 17 when they decided to rest their players and take on the Jets again in the playoff the following week. The result in the playoffs was a comfortable New York Jets victory. Cincinnati has undoubtedly had this game circled on their calenders since the beginning of the season, hoping to exact revenge on the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season. I’m not quite comfortable taking them to win outright, but all philosophical signs point to Cincinnati making a game of this one in my eyes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

SUNDAY

Green Bay (+2.0) @ Atlanta (-2.0)
Not an easy game to call between two of the NFC’s elite. I lean slightly towards Green Bay; Atlanta’s secondary is a concern, and Aaron Rodgers has been lights out lately.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

Pittsburgh (-6.5) @ Buffalo (+6.5)
Hard to believe this is the same Buffalo team that looked so hopeless at the beginning of the year; they are playing inspired football on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh is coming off of a big blowout win and is probably looking ahead to a huge showdown next week against Baltimore… Buffalo is pesky enough to keep this one close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Carolina (+10.0) @ Cleveland (-10.0)
Hard to believe that the Cleveland Browns are a double-digit favorite against anyone, and maybe harder to believe that I’m siding with them. They’ve looked great for the last month or so, while Carolina isn’t even fielding an NFL team at this point.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Jacksonville (+7.0) @ NY Giants (-7.0)
Jacksonville deserves some respect, but I’m not giving them any this week. New York has been struggling of late, and all of a sudden they find themselves in somewhat of a must-win situation. At home, with their backs against the wall, I think the Giants can put a complete game together in this one and pick up a big win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Minnesota (-1.0) @ Washington (+1.0)
Minnesota hasn’t won on the road this season, and has looked generally lost all year. Washington is no world beater, but at home against the Vikings, I think they can manage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Tennessee (+6.0) @ Houston (-6.0)
I actually like Rusty Smith, followed him a bit at Florida Atlantic and liked his game. Against the worst defense in the league, I think that he (along with Chris Johnson’s help) can put up some points and at least keep this rivalry game close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Kansas City (-2.5) @ Seattle (+2.5)
Tough one to call between two fringe teams, but I have to side with Seattle at home. They really are an excellent home team, and I’ve been expecting the wheels to fall off on Kansas City. I think they let this one get away from them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Miami (+2.5) @ Oakland (-2.5)
Quarterback issues, inconsistency, coming off of an awful loss. Who am I talking about? Both of these teams. I actually like Oakland in this spot to bounce back; with Nnamdi Asomugha back and Brandon Marshall out, Oakland’s defense should be fine against whoever Miami sends out there.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

St. Louis (+3.5) @ Denver (-3.5)
Both teams are coming off of big losses, and neither is particularly easy to read this year. While I don’t love giving up that extra .5, I do think Denver picks up the win at home here, so I’ll reluctantly side with them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Chicago (+3.5)
Probably going to regret picking against Michael Vick again, but Chicago’s defense is outstanding, and they have the linebacking core to contain him. As long as Jay Cutler doesn’t repeatedly shoot himself in the foot, I think the Bears can remind the league that they are still a threat in the NFC.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5)
Quite simply, Tampa Bay is 7-0 against teams under .500, and 0-3 with two blowout losses against teams over .500. Baltimore is due for a big game at home, too, so I’ll take the Ravens.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

San Diego (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
This is a tough one to call, as San Diego is in the midst of their late season surge, and the Colts look vulnerable. Still, I can’t pick against Peyton Manning at home in this spot, especially in a game the Colts need to win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

San Francisco (-1.0) @ Arizona (+1.0)
Both of these teams are awful, and looked it last week. I’m fairly sure that Arizona is more awful, though. We’ll soon find out, but I’ll take the disappointing 49ers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 34 – 46 – 1 (.425)

Week 13 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-13/

Arizona State -12.5 (WIN)
Boise State -14.0 (LOSS)
Ohio State -16.5 (WIN)
Stanford -13.0

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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