Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Back in 1983, the US penny switched from being made of brass (95% copper, 5% zinc) to 97.5% zinc, 2.5% copper plating. Some people were pretty upset at the cheapening of their beloved penny.

They thought that was bad. The US dime is made of roughly 92% copper and 8% nickel.

Dave’s Dime? Tin foil and used gum wrappers.

3-13 ATS last week. No, not 3 of 13… that would be bad, huh? No no, 3 wins, 13 losses; 3 of 16 correct.

You know what the really, truly sad thing is? I’m trying. I’m trying really hard. I keep up with these teams both for my work and for fun, I run scores through different power ranking models, I analyze spreads, I look for angles… and where do I end up?

Far, far worse than a coin flip. A tin foil/gum wrapper coin, no less.

I try and joke about it, but it really does frustrate me. I do take this seriously, and I am awful at it. I like making people laugh, but I also want my predictions/analysis to be taken seriously… and I just haven’t put myself in a position for that to happen.

I’m past the point of quitting. This is too ingrained in me to give it up altogether. But big changes are coming next season. Not sure if I need to start from scratch with a brand new format and do something completely different, or just rebuild this one, but I’m making some serious changes. If I’m going to put in 20-40 unpaid hours a week into personal projects, they need to do more than portray me as a fool.

Alas, I am a fool, and an OCD one at that. Why not make the changes NOW, you ask? Because a full-blown rebuild mid-season would not sit pretty with the everything-needs-to-be-tidy side of my brain. So I’ll just try and do the best I can and finish up the season as well as I can, and take it from there.

Sorry to be so serious; but this is how I’m feeling at the moment. The Dime has always been genuine, if nothing else, for better or worse. Hopefully we’re having a bit more fun next week.

And if you actually read all of this and didn’t just skip ahead, I’m impressed. Thank you.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 13 – 0 (.188)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 78 – 92 – 6 (.459)
Without the spread: 99 – 77 – 0 (.563)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 11 – 12 – 0 (.478)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New England (-7.0) @ Detroit (+7.0)
New Orleans (-3.5) @ Dallas (+3.5)
Cincinnati (+9.0) @ New York Jets (-9.0)
Green Bay (+2.0) @ Atlanta (-2.0)
Carolina (+10.0) @ Cleveland (-10.0)
Jacksonville (+7.0) @ NY Giants (-7.0)
Minnesota (-1.0) @ Washington (+1.0)
Tennessee (+6.0) @ Houston (-6.0)
Kansas City (-2.5) @ Seattle (+2.5)
Miami (+2.5) @ Oakland (-2.5)
Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5)
San Diego (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)

THE BAD

Pittsburgh (-6.5) @ Buffalo (+6.5)
Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Chicago (+3.5)
San Francisco (-1.0) @ Arizona (+1.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

*Sorry if any of these are shorter/less detailed than usual… tired, and wanted to get this out ASAP. Thanks!

THURSDAY

Houston (+8.0) @ Philadelphia (-8.0)
Yes, Houston’s defense was lights out last week in a shutout effort over Tennessee. But Tennessee was starting an ill-prepared rookie quarterback in Rusty Smith. This week, Houston goes from being at home against one of the worst quarterbacks in the league (sorry, Rusty) to being on the road against one of the best in the league, Michael Vick. That can’t be a recipe for success, especially with such an awful secondary, can it? Should we believe that Houston is magically cured defensively based on that easy matchup last week? I say no. Houston may score enough to keep this within eight points, but I see Philadelphia scoring into the mid-to-high 30s, and that should be enough to get the cover here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

SUNDAY

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Cincinnati (+6.5)
Cincinnati doesn’t seem to follow any of the rules of showing up or getting motivated. This is a dysfunctional team on both sides of the ball, and while they have the talent to put it all together at some point, what in their recent play suggests they are capable of that change now? I’m tired of sinking with this team, and New Orleans is on a roll.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Chicago (-4.5) @ Detroit (+4.5)
Good high vs. low situation in this one with Chicago riding high after a huge win over Philadelphia and Detroit coming off of the embarrassing blowout loss on Thanksgiving Day. The wheels have been falling off a bit for Detroit, but Chicago isn’t really built to blow teams out; I think they win, but Detroit keeps it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

San Francisco (+9.0) @ Green Bay (-9.0)
Sure, it is a lot of points; but San Francisco has been awful this season. No wins against teams over .500, and now they head on the road for the second straight week, but this time draw a much better team that need’s a win after last week’s loss. Look for Aaron Rodgers to put a great day together and win this one big.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Word is that Kerry Collins will play, and that makes a world of difference for Tennessee. Rusty Smith was clearly a ways away from being an NFL quarterback, while the veteran Collins is no stranger to any game situation. The Titans need a win badly, and at home I think they can get one, even against the solid Jags.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Denver (+9.0) @ Kansas City (-9.0)
No strong opinion here, but I’ll take Denver and the points. Kansas City is certainly the better team, but I don’t think there is nine points worth of a discrepancy. The Chiefs will be looking to return the favor from being beaten badly by the Broncos a few weeks ago, but in the end I think it’ll end up being a close one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Cleveland (+5.0) @ Miami (-5.0)
Great effort by Miami last week to dominate Oakland in their own building. I’ve been wrong on my Dolphins pick something like six weeks in a row now. This team is tough to crack, but at home with Chad Henne in and last week’s momentum, I believe they will take care of business. All five of Miami’s losses have been to playoff-bound teams; and Cleveland isn’t that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Minnesota picked up a nice road win over Washington last week, but this team still has a lot of problems. While there is a chance that Adrian Peterson goes nuts on Buffalo’s spotty rushing D, Buffalo is 2-4 in their last six games and all four losses came by only three. They’ve played a better stretch of football over the last six weeks than Minnesota has, and that may continue with an outright upset Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Washington (+7.0) @ NY Giants (-7.0)
Over the course of his career, Donovan McNabb has fared well against the Giants. He gets his first crack at them as a Redskin this week, and I expect his success to continue. Even in last week’s win, the Giants seem to be off their game at the moment; sure, Washington isn’t much better, but they are worth a shot to keep it close at +7.0.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Oakland (+13.0) @ San Diego (-13.0)
Just a good ol’ fashion going against the grain Philosophy Pick. Oakland has lost in two straight blowouts, with two different quarterbacks, and have looked fairly hopeless. San Diego has won four straight including two straight blowout wins, including Indianapolis on the road. They simply look like they can do no wrong, and at home against Oakland, how do you NOT love them in a blowout? These are the types of games that drive bettors nuts; when it looks like a slam dunk of a game with a huge spread, it usually isn’t, especially in the NFL.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Carolina (+4.5) @ Seattle (-4.5)
Carolina is finally starting to get healthy again and played admirably against Cleveland last week, but I don’t think lightning will strike twice. Seattle was embarrassed in front of their great home fans last week, and given the chance to redeem themselves against the worst team in the league? I say they take it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
As I did last week, we’ll keep this simple again; Tampa Bay is 7-0 against teams under .500, and 0-4 against teams over .500. Against one of the NFL’s best? These trends are likely to continue. Atlanta is due for a slip up sooner or later, but I don’t expect it in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

St. Louis (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)
I was right in the middle of typing how awful Arizona is and how easy of a pick St. Louis is when I realized; I’ve got to go with awful Arizona as a Philosophy Pick. Embarrassed at home and on national TV Monday night, they are back at home here against a good St. Louis team coming off of a nice win. There is nothing to like about Arizona on paper, making them such an undesirable team to pick; but after losing three straight by 18+ and getting ridiculed in the media this week, if Arizona is going to get another win this season, this needs to be the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Arizona

Dallas (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
I don’t see Peyton Manning and the Colts dropping a second straight at home and falling to 6-6; but on the flip side, I never saw the possibility coming either. Dallas has played well since their head coaching change, and though Indy will likely end up on top, I do think Dallas can give them a run for their money.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)
Big Ben’s numbers against Baltimore are staggering (7-2 career, including five straight wins), and Pittsburgh looks to have a clear cut statistical advantage on both sides of the ball when it comes to the running game. This should be a great game and a potential playoff preview, and I say Round 2 of this AFC North battle goes to the Steelers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

MONDAY

NY Jets (+3.5) @ New England (-3.5)
After a few duds, Monday Night Football picks up the game of the year this week. Both sitting at 9-2, this game has playoff, division, and conference implications galore. I like New England for a few reasons; one, obviously, they are at home. But two, they’ve played some playoff-atmosphere type of football games over the last few weeks against teams like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. The Jets on the other hand, to no fault of their own, have been playing nothing but scrubs; they’ve won seven of their last eight, and all seven wins were to under-.500 teams. They seem to have developed some bad habits of keeping games close and then producing a late comeback. I expect another close one here, which is why I’ll take the points; but when push comes to shove, they don’t pull the magic off this time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 47 – 1 (.440)

Week 14 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-14/

Oregon State +16.5 (LOSS)
Virginia Tech -3.5
USC/UCLA Over 54

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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