Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sorry for the very short and very late installment of the Dime this morning.

First of all, Happy New Year!

As can often happen when you spend some time with great people, time and alcohol consumption are easy to lose track of.

Somehow, getting home last night at “one or two to do the Dime” became “getting home at five to go to sleep”. But alas, I have dragged myself out of bed to get this out before kickoff (barely).

Hope you all had a safe and happy New Year’s Eve and Day! Also hope you and yours have a great 2011.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SUNDAY

Carolina (+14.5) @ Atlanta (-14.5)
I have little doubt that Atlanta will win this game and lock up their first round bye. But once they take the lead, I can’t see them keeping up their intensity for the full 60 minutes; they’ll be looking ahead to the playoffs and not worrying too much about Carolina. Even their half-effort may result in a blowout win, but I think Carolina will sneak in a late score or two and cover this big spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Pittsburgh (-6.5) @ Cleveland (+6.5)
Like last week, this is one of those popular late-season philosophy picks of taking a home division underdog AND a bad team against a team needing a win. The Steelers need to win to keep their hold on the NFC North, and the lowly Browns could give them a little bit of trouble at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Minnesota (+3.5) @ Detroit (-3.5)
Minnesota played a great game last week in upsetting Philadelphia, but I don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Detroit has played well to close out the year, and should be able to pick up the win in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Oakland (+4.0) @ Kansas City (-4.0)
With a playoff spot locked up, I’d be surprised to see 100% effort out of Kansas City, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some players rested. Oakland is looking to go 6-0 in the AFC West which would be a huge accomplishment heading into next year… Kansas City already has their accomplishment with the playoff spot. I expect Oakland to want it a little more and end up taking it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Miami (+6.0) @ New England (-6.0)
Will New England rest players? They tend not to historically, but with nothing on the line, it will be tempting. I believe they will, and even if they don’t, this is exactly the type of game that the completely unpredictable Dolphins will show up to when you least expect them to and keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Both teams have plenty to play for with New Orleans still in the hunt (needing an Atlanta loss) for a first round bye and Tampa Bay fighting for their potential playoff lives. Assuming we get both teams’ best efforts, the Saints should win pretty comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Buffalo @ NY Jets (Pick’em)
New York can’t really afford to rest anyone as they are playing the worst football of any of the playoff bound teams. Another home loss would not set the tone for a successful playoff run, while a win would at least put the Jets back on the right track. I still haven’t given up on this team, and think they will get the job done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Cincinnati (+10.0) @ Baltimore (-10.0)
Baltimore still has a slim chance of earning a first round bye if Cleveland upsets Pittsburgh. Cincinnati played great last week, and I think they’ll play well again this week with nothing to lose in the spoiler role. Doubt we’ll see an outright upset, but 10 points is a lot of points; Baltimore hasn’t been blowing many teams out this year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Houston (-4.0)
Houston fell just short last week, but I think they can end this disappointing season with a win. With Maurice Jones-Drew and Andre Johnson both out, this game loses a lot of its star power; but it should still be a good game, and Houston should be able to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

NY Giants (-4.5) @ Washington (+4.5)
Another Home Division Underdog + team needing a win vs. lowly opponent. And with the way New York has been playing, their confidence seems to be completely shot. I’ll not only take Washington to keep it close, but to pull off the outright upset as well and end New York’s playoff hopes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

Dallas @ Philadelphia (Pick’em)
After last week’s awful loss to Minnesota, I don’t think Philly will want to go into the playoffs on a two game losing streak. And even if they do decide to rest Vick, Kolb is capable of running this offense as well. At home, even if they do sprinkle in some rest, I think the Eagles win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Arizona (+6.0) @ San Francisco (-6.0)
Two awful teams in what should be an awful football game. I guess I like San Francisco to cover here; Arizona only wins games that are given to them, and while the 49ers certainly aren’t below that, I think they can finish up the season strong against a weak opponent like this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Chicago (+10.5) @ Green Bay (-10.5)
10.5 points? Lovie Smith says he won’t be resting players, and while that may not be 100% true, I do believe the Bears have no interest in rolling over for a bitter rival to make their way into the playoffs. I was thinking this would be a good, close game; more than happy to take this many points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Tennessee (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
Weak team versus team needing a win angle again. Hard to see Peyton Manning and the Colts falling short and missing the playoffs with a loss at home to the Titans… but it isn’t all that hard to see Tennessee fighting hard and making it tough on them. I’m thinking a single-digit win for the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
Division home underdog rule doesn’t really apply here since nothing is on the line for either team. Tim Tebow has sparked some life into the Broncos, but if San Diego chooses to try in this game, they should win comfortably. But will the Chargers be trying? Hard to say, but I lean yes after last week’s embarrassing loss, so I’m leaning their way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

St. Louis (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
Yuck. Which of these awful teams will end up being fodder for New Orleans in the first round of the playoffs next week? St. Louis seems to be the popular choice, but Seattle is a good home team; good enough, hilariously, to maybe make the playoffs with a 7-9 record. We shall see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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