Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

(I will be posting a copy of the newsletter here on the site one day after I email it out. If you’d like to get it as soon as I email it out, email me at vegasdavesdime [at] gmail.com and let me know! I’ll add you to the list.)

The Dime comes to you live (well, I’m writing it live) from the Luxor in Las Vegas this week as I’m in town for the Los Angeles Kings annual preseason game against the Colorado Avalanche played at the MGM Grand. Should be a blast.

So forgive me if any of this comes off as rushed. The fact that I haven’t slept in over 24 hours also doesn’t lend itself to long and witty prose (as if it is ever witty…)

Last week I went 6-10 against the spread, 7-9 straight up. Uh-oh! Everyone brace themselves! There’s a hurricane of self pity on the way!

Actually, for once, there’s not.

Because as upset as I am at my miserable week (VERY upset about how terrible my philosophy picks are doing… not used to seeing these get smashed like this, but confident they’ll come around), the bigger picture is that the NFL is kind of fun and unpredictable again.

Underdogs were 11-5-0 against the spread, and had eight outright upsets last week? Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger, Kansas City, and Chicago are the only remaining undefeated teams?

It’s cool. It’s crazy. It’s fun.

And, in all likelihood, it’s going to continue to make an ass of me all season. But alas, I won’t give up without a fight!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
Without the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 20 – 24 – 4 (.455)
Without the spread: 23 – 25 – 0 (.479)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 1 – 4 – 0 (.200)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tennessee (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
Dallas (+2.5) @ Houston (-2.5)
Detroit (+11.5) @ Minnesota (-11.5)
Oakland (+4.5) @ Arizona (-4.5)
San Diego (-5.0) @ Seattle (+5.0)
Indianapolis (-5.5) @ Denver (+5.5)

THE BAD

Pittsburgh (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
Cleveland (+10.5) @ Baltimore (-10.5)
San Francisco (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
Buffalo (+14.5) @ New England (-14.5)
Atlanta (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
Washington (-3.5) @ St. Louis (+3.5)
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
NY Jets (+2.5) @ Miami (-2.5)
Green Bay (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SUNDAY

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
I’m running out of excuses for this San Francisco team. They just don’t seem to have the confidence to compete this season. Atlanta is riding high after a huge win in New Orleans, but a let down should be avoided by the three-way tie at the top of the NFC South.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
Was thinking this spread was a little fishy, but when you consider that Cleveland has kept every game close this season, it actually makes sense. One thing we have learned from Cleveland early on is that they find a way to give games away, and Cinci’s opportunistic defense should be ready when they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

NY Jets (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0)
With Mark Sanchez playing at a high level, the Jets can compete with anyone; but with the way CB Kyle Wilson is playing, the Jets can’t really afford to be without Darrelle Revis. Buffalo has played both of their other division rivals tough this season, and historically they always play the Jets tough. New York looks out of sync enough on defense to allow Buffalo to make a game of this one, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Seattle (-1.5) @ St. Louis (+1.5)
Both of these teams are extremely difficult to figure out, but both are gaining confidence each week and are coming off of huge upset wins at home. I keep going back and forth on this one, but until Seattle proves they can match the intensity they show at home on the road, I’ll have to go against them in tricky spots like this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Denver (+6.5) @ Tennessee (-6.5)
Tennessee appears to be back in form after their hiccup against Pittsburgh, taking care of the New York Giants on the road last week. They still look to be a step behind the AFC’s elite, but a team like Denver should provide another relatively easy win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Detroit (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Last week, the “revenge coming off of a big loss” angle didn’t work very well, as both Baltimore and New England failed to cover these huge spreads. Minnesota did, however; against this same Detroit team. Green Bay should do the same, and bounce back from their Chicago loss with a blowout win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Baltimore (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)
Pittsburgh has been amazing this season defensively, and against a Baltimore team that has struggled offensively, they should have another great day Sunday. But on the other hand, Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t faced a defense like Baltimore’s yet this season. I actually like Baltimore’s offense enough to give them the slight edge, perhaps winning in ugly fashion like they did in week one on the road against the Jets.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Carolina (+13.5) @ New Orleans (-13.5)
Tricky. Carolina has lost all three of their games by exactly 13 points, and New Orleans can’t seem to get double-digit separation on anyone. I’m tempted to take the points, but I believe that New Orleans defensively will give Carolina a lot of fits, and the offense should be able to do enough to get the cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Jacksonville (+7.0)
Oh Philosophy Picks, will this be the week you return to me? Indianapolis is coming off of two straight double-digit wins, and the public loves to bet on them. Jacksonville is coming off two straight losses by a 25-point margin, and the public loves to bet against them. Over 80% of the public is on Indianapolis. Indianapolis is playing their second straight road game and third in their first four games, Jacksonville hasn’t had to travel as this is their second straight home game and third of their first four at home. So travel, public perception, one high team versus one low team, and lastly, a division underdog, at home, getting an entire touchdown of points? I can’t pass on Jacksonville in this spot. Indianapolis wins, but by a slim margin.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Houston (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
I have no clue what to make of this. Houston is clearly the better team in my opinion, and I can’t really make a case for Oakland being a philosophy pick due to Houston’s losing by double digits last week. Both teams should be plenty motivated, and Houston should win this game. If this is a trap, I’m springing it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Washington (+5.5) @ Philadelphia (-5.5)
The media will make this about the Donovan McNabb return to Philadelphia angle, which admittedly is an interesting one, but it’s not the reason I’m taking the points. Washington is the toughest defense Vick has started against, and over the last few years, these two teams always battle hard and often end up in very close games. This one should be a good old fashioned NFC East dogfight, and Washington should be able to keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Arizona (+8.5) @ San Diego (-8.5)
I can’t continue to emphasize enough how bad this Arizona team is. Yes, I know people are worried about San Diego too, but back at home against an opponent of Arizona’s caliber, we should see the same result we saw in week two for both of these teams; a blowout loss for Arizona, and a blowout win for San Diego.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Chicago (+3.5) @ NY Giants (-3.5)
This is another one of those Philosophy Picks that just write themselves.

1. Off Spread – NY Giants 1-2 with two blowout losses, Chicago 3-0 with wins over two of the NFC’s elite in Green Bay and Dallas, and the spread is giving Chicago more than a field goal?
2. NY Giants Motivation – Last week, the Giants got blown out at home. The week before, the Giants got blown out on Sunday Night Football; two completely humiliating results. Now, they play at home again and on Sunday Night Football again? New York should have plenty of frustration to take out on the Bears.
3. Chicago Letdown Spot – Week one was a trying win over Detroit, week two was a win IN Dallas, and week three was a hard fought Monday Night Football win over division rival Green Bay. I always go against a team coming off of a win against a division rival on MNF; but tack on the two games before it, too, and a letdown seems imminent.

If the Giants have even a hint of pride, which I believe they do, Chicago should be walking into a warzone this weekend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^NY Giants

MONDAY

New England (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)
I’ve made the New York Jets to Miami Dolphins comparison multiple times, and I think it showed in last week’s game between the two teams. New England is still an elite team that can compete against anyone, but their defense is a serious concern. Like the Giants, Miami will also be looking for revenge after last week’s prime time loss with another prime time game this week. With home field advantage and the edge on defense, I think Miami will beat New England like the Jets did.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 11 – 14 – 0 (.389)

Week 5 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-5/

BYU -4.5 (LOSS)
Northwestern -5.5
Florida State -7
Washington State +27.0
Texas El Paso -15.0
Arizona State +3.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 4 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-4/
and my College Football Top 25 for Week 5 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-5/

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