Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

It was my master plan all along!

I only wanted you to THINK I was terrible at picking games. I went 66-76-4 against the spread through the first 10 weeks of the season to test your loyalty!

Those that stuck by me got to see me finish 58-46-6 ATS over the last six weeks and go 3-1 ATS and 4-0 overall straight up so far in the playoffs!

Why shouldn’t I have revealed my identity as a master of NFL wisdom when I could make myself out to look like a circus clown for the first three months of the season?

I mean sure, having season-long success would have been more respectable, impressive, etc… but where’s the fun in that?!?

Let’s see if I can keep this little hot streak going. I’m not sure which is more likely… Tim Tebow stunning the world with another upset, or me actually making it through the playoffs with a winning record.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 4 – 0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)

Playoffs
With the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 4 – 0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 124 – 122 – 10 (.504)
Without the spread: 160 – 96 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 22 – 22 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

#6 Detroit (+10.5) @ #3 New Orleans (-10.5)
#5 Atlanta (+3.0) @ #4 NY Giants (-3.0)
#5 Pittsburgh (-9.0) @ #4 Denver (+9.0)

THE BAD

#6 Cincinnati (+4.0) @ #3 Houston (-4.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SATURDAY

#3 New Orleans (-3.5) @ #2 San Francisco (+3.5)
It’s not often that you see a home team underdog in the Divisional round, but considering the Saints are 9-0 straight up and against the spread in their last nine games and have scored 40+ points in four straight, it is understandable. I’m going against the public grain in this one and taking the 49ers. Historically, when a great offense goes up against a great defense, the defense usually gets the upper hand. Consider that the great defense also has home field advantage and has had an extra week to rest and game plan for this one. It is extremely difficult to pick against the red-hot Saints, but I’ve got to go with Jim Harbaugh and San Francisco’s shutdown defense to pull off the “upset” at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco
OVER/UNDER 47: Under (23-20 San Francisco)

#4 Denver (+13.5) @ #1 New England (-13.5)
What to do with Tim Tebow? Will the magic carry over for one more week, or does the Tebow Train make its last stop in Foxborough? New England has won eight straight, including a comfortable 41-23 victory in Denver back in December. The Patriots also have a chip on their shoulder as they’ve struggled in recent years come playoff time. The superior team, with great recent form, with a chip on their shoulder, at home… not even Tim Tebow can overcome all that, can he? I’m a bit worried about the 13.5 points as I could see Denver shooting out, but I think New England will take a two-score lead early and Denver will unravel. Time will tell.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 50: Over (35-17 New England)

SUNDAY

#3 Houston (+7.5) @ #2 Baltimore (-7.5)
My initial reaction to this game was “Baltimore will roll”, and through most of the week I thought I’d be taking them to cover here. While I am fairly certain the Ravens will win this game at home, I’m no longer leaning towards them covering the spread. Both of these teams finished in the Top 4 in both scoring defense and total defense (yards), suggesting this should be a very good defensive struggle. And while I like Baltimore’s offense a bit more, it hasn’t produced more than 24 points in six straight games, so why should that change against Houston’s great defense? I think Baltimore will control the tempo and get the job done, but that the score won’t get too far out of reach.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 36: Under (20-13 Baltimore)

#4 NY Giants (+7.5) @ #1 Green Bay (-7.5)
I don’t do Philosophy Picks in the playoffs as motivational factors are nullified by ALL teams wanting to win the Super Bowl and sudden death, but from the “this spread is way off” angle, I’ve talked myself into Green Bay. There’s plenty of good reason for Green Bay to be a big favorite here; they did go 15-1, including 8-0 at home and 7-1 against the spread. But the public and media all seem convinced that this will be a close game, and that New York has a great shot at winning it. Consider the last time these two teams played it was a close 38-35 game, the Giants have won three straight in dominant fashion, they’ve done this before when they made their Super Bowl run a few years ago, they are in “playoff mode” while Green Bay is in cruise control… all of these factors are true. So why isn’t New York, say, +6? I believe it is because from an X’s and O’s perspective, Green Bay is superior, and they are a veteran tight-knit group that isn’t likely to be caught sleeping. I’m with the rest of you in the media, my gut tells me it’ll be close; but the fishy line and the respect I have for Green Bay has me going the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
OVER/UNDER 52.5: Over (34-21 Green Bay)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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