Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

5-11 with the spread, 3-13 without the spread. That’s the sort of week that legends are made of.

For whatever reason, the more I know about the NFL, the worse I seem to do.

In years past, I was just a fan. I studied up, read box scores, crunched a few numbers, and made my picks. From 2005 to 2008, I never had a season under .500 ATS.

In 2009, I held a job as a writer and video producer in the sports gambling field. I went on to have my first losing year that year, 123-126-7.

Since 2010, I’ve been paid to write articles on sports gambling. Not making picks, but preseason previews, midweek injury reports and line movements, etc; all analytic stuff.

2010 was the first year I came into the year knowing every offseason transaction, every team top-to-bottom, tons of details that allude the casual fan. The result? 122-128-6.

And now, it would seem, I’m heading for yet another losing season.

Just goes to show you; the more you know, the harder this gets.

Maybe I should try picking by mascots or favorite colors moving forward…

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 11 – 0 (.313)
Without the spread: 3 – 13 – 0 (.188)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 66 – 76 – 4 (.465)
Without the spread: 85 – 61 – 0 (.582)
^Philosophy Picks^: 12 – 16 – 0 (.429)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Arizona (+14.0) @ Philadelphia (-14.0)
Pittsburgh (-4.0) @ Cincinnati (+4.0)
Baltimore (-6.5) @ Seattle (+6.5)
NY Giants (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
Minnesota (+13.0) @ Green Bay (-13.0)

THE BAD

Oakland (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Tennessee (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
Houston (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay (+3.5)
Washington (+4.0) @ Miami (-4.0)
Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0)
Buffalo (+5.5) @ Dallas (-5.5)
New Orleans (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
St. Louis (+2.5) @ Cleveland (-2.5)
Detroit (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
New England (+2.0) @ NY Jets (-2.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

THURSDAY

NY Jets (-6.0) @ Denver (+6.0)
So Tim Tebow has somehow miraculously led Denver on a 3-1 stretch and put the team back in position to compete for the AFC West. A six point underdog at home, obviously not too many people are sold on Denver. Put me firmly in that category. Denver has topped two lousy teams (Miami and Kansas City) and one team with a very inconsistent defense (Oakland). Going up against one of the league’s best defenses with a strictly one-dimensional offense (run, run, run, run) just isn’t going to work. Or is it? I don’t have a clue about the NFL anymore, but if I’ve got any knowledge of the sport left, it suggests that the Jets should be able to handle their business here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

SUNDAY

Tampa Bay (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Three philosophy elements going against Green Bay in this one. 1. They are coming off of a win against a division rival on a Monday night, 2. They are coming off of a blowout win (45-7) and facing a team coming off of a blowout loss (37-9), 3. They have a big look-ahead game with a Thanksgiving meeting against a division rival coming up (Detroit). It also doesn’t hurt that Tampa Bay is a solid albeit underachieving team, and that 14 points is an awful lot. Green Bay wins, but by “only” around 7-10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Carolina (+7.0) @ Detroit (-7.0)
The excitement around this Carolina team has worn off a bit, and we’re left with a 2-7 team that can’t quite put it all together. Detroit shouldn’t be caught looking ahead like Green Bay will due to the fact that they’re coming off of an ugly loss; that always helps re-focus a team. Don’t love giving up seven points, but do expect Detroit’s passing attack to have a big day against this weak pass D and do enough to get the cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Jacksonville (+1.0) @ Cleveland (-1.0)
Two of the worst offensive teams in the league playing for absolutely nothing. Sounds like a blast. Not only does Jacksonville have the best offensive player on the field (Maurice Jones-Drew), they are also going up against a very bad rushing defense. In what should be a very bad game that shouldn’t be watched by anyone outside of these two cities, I think the Jags edge out the Browns.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Oakland (+1.5) @ Minnesota (-1.5)
As a Raider fan, this game concerns me very much with tons of philosophy elements going against the Raiders. 1. The Raiders are coming off of a big upset win against a division rival, the Vikings are coming off of an awful loss to one, 2. Taking No. 1 and these team’s records into account, why is Minnesota favored in this game? Tons of action on Oakland and it looks like Vegas is setting the trap, 3. Oakland is coming off of three straight division rivalry games and is now going up against a team they “should” beat, hard to bring intensity. From an X’s and O’s perspective, Minnesota’s stingy rushing defense hurts the Raiders and Adrian Peterson should have a big day against this suspect defense. Yes, Oakland had the extra rest, but they’re also traveling cross-country and playing an early game. Hoping I’m wrong, but can’t ignore such a clear cut pick just because I’m a fan of the team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Minnesota

Buffalo (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
Very strange game. On the one hand, Buffalo’s body of work has been much more impressive than Miami’s. On the other hand, recent form and preseason expectations suggest that this is a game Miami can win. This feels like one of those damned if I do, damned if I don’t picks that’s been haunting me all season and is one of the casualties of picking every game ATS. It’s a coin-flip for me, but I guess I’ll give Buffalo the benefit of the doubt and say they get back on track this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Dallas (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0)
I’ll keep this one pretty short and simple; this is a division rival home underdog receiving a touchdown. Doesn’t matter much how bad Washington’s been, this is still the NFL. Plus, the fact that Washington is coming off of a loss to Miami and Dallas is coming off of a blowout win… shapes up to me like a game that Washington will fight in to the finish. They’ll still probably lose, but I’ll say its by three or four.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0)
This one’s another coin flip for me. I like what Cincinnati has done so far this season, but they haven’t proven it against tough opponents. Baltimore’s Jekyll and Hyde act is unbelievable as they picked up yet another awful loss last week at Seattle. Ray Lewis injury is big, but AJ Green also being out makes that a wash. At home, with the division title still very much in reach, I get the feeling Baltimore will bounce back from last week with a big game here. Cincinnati always seems to play them tough, but I guess I’m going with the Ravens.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Arizona (+10.0) @ San Francisco (-10.0)
Yet another coin flip. Yay, these have gone so well for me this year! No doubt in my mind San Francisco wins, but by 10? Frank Gore is banged up, Arizona has been showing a lot of fight lately… I’m seeing a 24-14 win, so this spread is spot on. But forced to make a selection, I have to side with the team that is undefeated against the spread at 8-0-1, considering they’ve given me no reason not to this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Seattle (+3.0) @ St. Louis (-3.0)
What’s this, three straight games that could easily go either way ATS? Fantastic. Another game between two awful teams that each have one big win over a great team (Seattle over Baltimore, St. Louis over New Orleans). Considering how terrible Seattle is on the road, this feels like a spot that they’d go from a nice win to an ugly loss in. St. Louis also seems to be coming around a little bit, and has a bit more potential on offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
Atlanta fought New Orleans hard last week, but some questionable decisions in overtime eventually led to the loss. Now still at home against a mediocre Tennessee team, this should be a spot that Atlanta can put together a nice bounce back performance in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

San Diego (+3.5) @ Chicago (-3.5)
San Diego has lost four straight both outright and ATS, and Chicago has won four straight both outright and ATS. San Diego is coming off of a terrible loss at home, Chicago is coming off of a big win. Which way do you think I’m going in this one? Unfortunately for the Raiders, I think this is about that time of the year when San Diego turns it on and finishes the season strong. Again, hope I’m wrong, but I think the extra rest gave the Chargers a chance to clear their heads and they pull off the upset this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego

Philadelphia (+5.5) @ NY Giants (-5.5)
There’s no reason that New York should lose this game, and there’s no reason I should trust my gut that has proven to be useless this season. But what the heck. Philadelphia is all but done for, and with a loss here, they’d lose the “all-but”. Not only are expectations for the season now gone, but expectations for this game are gone too with Mike Vick and Jeremy Maclin out. So what better time to start playing like the “dream team” that you were supposed to be? Seems like the type of story that makes sense in this year’s NFL.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia

MONDAY

Kansas City (+15.0) @ New England (-15.0)
I was leaning towards New England for obvious reasons, but 15 points is an awful lot. And while none of us know anything about Tyler Palko, he’s going up against the worst passing defense in the league that’s missing it’s best corner. With Kansas City’s talented wide receiving core and a quarterback no one has any tape on, I think Kansas City can get to 17-20 points. Will that be enough to cover the spread? Maybe not, but I’ll take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 46 – 35 – 1 (.568)

Week 12 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-12/

Houston -20.0 (WIN)
LSU -30.0 (WIN)
UCLA -11.0 (WIN)
Kansas State +8.5 (WIN)
Stanford -17.5 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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