Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

3-0 both straight up and against the spread on Thanksgiving Day?!?

That couldn’t be right. How could I, in the midst of my worst year ever, have such an awesome day? What was different?

As Green Bay rolled over Detroit, I watched while woofing down eight pancakes and a three-egg bacon and cheese omelet at IHOP.

As Miami kept it close all game long against Dallas only to lose a close one in the end, I chowed down on spinach dip with Fritos and Hawaiian bread.

Baltimore gutted out a tough one over San Francisco while I filled my gut with turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, green bean casserole, and corn followed by cheesecake, pumpkin pie, and apple pie.

As I rolled around in bed last night, likely 15 pounds heavier than I was 24 hours ago, it hit me; the thinner I get, the worse I get at picking football games.

On the day I eat like an elephant, I go 3-0. Coincidence? I think not.

So here’s the question; do I go against the best interest of common sense, my health, my parents, and my girlfriend and balloon back up to epic proportions in the name of bringing the Dime back to splendor?

This is a lot to chew on.

Speaking of chewing, I hear leftovers calling from the fridge. I’ll be back in a few.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 8 – 1 (.385)
Without the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 71 – 84 – 5 (.458)
Without the spread: 93 – 67 – 0 (.581)
^Philosophy Picks^: 14 – 18 – 0 (.438)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tampa Bay (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Carolina (+7.0) @ Detroit (-7.0)
Dallas (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0)
Arizona (+10.0) @ San Francisco (-10.0)
Philadelphia (+5.5) @ NY Giants (-5.5)
Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0) TIE

THE BAD

NY Jets (-6.0) @ Denver (+6.0)
Jacksonville (+1.0) @ Cleveland (-1.0)
Oakland (+1.5) @ Minnesota (-1.5)
Buffalo (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
Seattle (+3.0) @ St. Louis (-3.0)
Tennessee (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
San Diego (+3.5) @ Chicago (-3.5)
Kansas City (+15.0) @ New England (-15.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

THURSDAY

Green Bay (-6.0) @ Detroit (+6.0)
Plenty has been made all week about how Detroit is “built” to beat Green Bay. And I’ll agree to some extent; I like the way they match up with their ability to rush the quarterback and their strong passing attack better than most. That said, pressuring Aaron Rodgers just isn’t enough; he can throw on the run, too. I also don’t like Detroit’s running game without Jahvid Best healthy, and if the running game isn’t keeping Green Bay off the field, the Packers will get their share of points. It may end up being a good game, but I like Green Bay to pull away and win it by a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Miami (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
Both teams come into this one riding three-game winning streaks, and Miami is finally looking like the team I thought they were going to be this season. At home, on Thanksgiving, you have to figure that Dallas will get the job done. But Miami’s defense is playing well enough (as is their Matt Moore led offense, surprisingly) to make this a good game, so I’ll take the points on Miami.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

San Francisco (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)
I have the utmost respect for San Francisco, and think they are the real deal. That said, I like Baltimore Thursday night. The Ravens have had some ugly losses this year, but in games at home and against opponents over .500, they’re perfect. San Francisco has nine wins, but none have come against a team as good as Baltimore. Also, the 49ers having to travel three time zones on a short week is brutal; especially considering that Baltimore didn’t have to travel at all with last week’s game at home. While San Francisco winning wouldn’t surprise me too much, I think most of the signs point to a Baltimore victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

SUNDAY

Houston (-6.5) @ Jacksonville (+6.5)
I liked this one a lot more earlier in the week when it was Houston -3.5, but my logic remains about the same here. Jacksonville has been awful all season on offense, mustering up just 12.5 points per game; and while Houston’s defense isn’t among the NFL’s elite by any stretch, it’s been capable enough this year. I don’t think the Jaguars get many more than 10 to 14 points; and even with Matt Leinart at the helm, the Texans have a strong enough supporting cast to crack 20 points, and that should be enough for the win and cover here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Buffalo (+9.5) @ NY Jets (-9.5)
Buffalo has been absolutely useless in two straight huge blowout losses, and the Bills just lost their star running back Fred Jackson, too. But I still like them here for a few reasons; one, they’re bound to show a pulse sooner or later. Two, it was the Jets that sent the Bills into this tailspin; getting revenge to the tune of all but knocking the Jets out of playoff contention should be enough motivation for the Bills to bring their best this week. Lastly, with the way this Jets offense is playing, can they really be spotted 9.5 points? I’d be surprised if the Jets lost, but I do think the Bills will make it look respectable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Cleveland (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0)
Cincinnati has lost two straight, but they were to Pittsburgh and Baltimore; no reason to believe they can’t still beat the bad teams. It also looks like it might rain in Cincinnati Sunday, which would only benefit the Bengals more; look no further than the Browns being 29th in the NFL in rushing and 29th in rushing defense as well. The Bengals should be able to get their season back on track against their offensively-challenged rival this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Minnesota (+9.5) @ Atlanta (-9.5)
Minnesota fought hard even after losing Adrian Peterson last week, but fell short at home against Oakland. Now the Vikings go on the road without Adrian Peterson to face a very good team starting to round into playoff form. I don’t love giving up so many points with an Atlanta team that tends to keep it closer than it needs to be, but I think Minnesota falls flat here and starts thinking next week against Denver is a better spot for them when they fall down early in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Arizona (+2.5) @ St. Louis (-2.5)
Who knows? Two lousy teams battling it out with nothing on the line, bound to come down to an ugly bounce or two. Considering the Rams just lost at home last week to a team they could have beaten (Seattle) and they lost in overtime last time they faced Arizona, they’ve got a bit of extra incentive to put together a strong effort, so I guess I’ll go with them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Carolina (-3.5) @ Indianapolis (+3.5)
Indianapolis has been at home for a month now. The players have slept in their own beds, had a full month to hear the local media talk about how much they suck, how excited the city is to get Andrew Luck. They’ve had a bye week to prepare, and a 2-8 team is coming to town. Honestly, this has to be Indianapolis’s win, doesn’t it? If it isn’t, I doubt they get it at all in their remaining five games.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
At 5-5, Tennessee is one of the most consistently under-the-radar teams in the NFL this season. It’s remarkable they’ve even managed five wins with Chris Johnson being a complete no-show this season. Tampa Bay has lost four straight in large part due to its brutal schedule; but on the other hand, what have the Bucs done to show that they can win on the road? Hard to believe I’m so clueless on the state of two teams in Week 12, but here we are. This feels like it should have been a pick’em to me, especially after Tampa Bay’s strong effort against Green Bay; the fact that Tennessee is favored suggests to me that bookmakers made them that way for a reason. I’ll go with the Titans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Chicago (+4.0) @ Oakland (-4.0)
Oakland caught a huge break with Jay Cutler going down with an injury right AFTER beating San Diego; but if the Raiders expect this 7-3 team on a five-game winning streak to just roll over, they’re mistaken. Chicago can still run the ball well (something the Raiders have had trouble with), and let’s not forget that Chicago’s defense is still its bread and butter. I think Oakland comes out on top at home, and Caleb Hanie may make a mistake or two, but I expect this one to be close right down to the wire and Sebastian Janikowski’s kicking leg to get tested.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Washington (+3.5) @ Seattle (-3.5)
Written off as a lousy team long ago, Seattle has quietly strung together two straight wins and a 6-1-1 ATS record in its last eight games. Washington battled admirably last week against Dallas but fell short. Now back on the road against a good home team, without much to get up for without a hated rival opposite them, I think the Redskins go through the motions and pick up their 7th straight loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Denver (+6.0) @ San Diego (-6.0)
Denver is 4-1 straight up and ATS in its last five games, San Diego is 0-5 SU and ATS… and Denver is a six-point underdog?? This is almost a reverse philosophy pick; normally I’d be on the team trending downwards, but it goes to show just how much the public and experts hate Denver that this spread isn’t closer to a pick’em. I cant figure out the “Tim Tebow” factor either, or when the Broncos will finally come crashing back down to earth. But what we do know is that if it’s close late, Denver finds a way. With the way Philip Rivers and this Denver defense is playing, I think this one will be close late. You know what that means. Te-bow! Te-bow! Te-bow! Can’t believe it, but I really am leaning that way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

New England (-3.5) @ Philadelphia (+3.5)
Would a Philadelphia win shock me? No. But with Michael Vick likely out, Nnamdi Asomugha banged up… this doesn’t seem like a spot that New England slips up in in late November, even going up against a team in desperation mode. That half-point may come back to bite me, but I’ll count on Tom Brady and the gang to win this one by four or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
Last week, I took big points on Kansas City and Tyler Palko against New England, and I was rewarded with a 34-3 loss. Now I’m supposed to repeat that mistake against a better defensive team, namely one in need of a win to keep pace with Baltimore in the AFC North? No thanks. Once I heard Kyle Orton wasn’t starting, my decision was made for me, square or not.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

MONDAY

NY Giants (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
I’m not quite ready to pull the plug on New York just yet. The Giants have lost two straight and have a brutal schedule ahead, but I don’t expect them to just roll over and surrender the division to Dallas. Going into New Orleans and beating the Saints as they are coming off of a bye week doesn’t seem likely to me, but each of New York’s last two losses was by one touchdown; I don’t think this one will be by much more. And if Ahmad Bradshaw is able to play, it’d increase New York’s upset prospects.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 46 – 35 – 1 (.568)

Week 13 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-13/

Georgia -6.0
Oregon -27.5
USC -16.0
Virginia Tech/Virginia Under 45.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!