Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Hell hath frozen over.

Pigs doth fly.

Dave’s Dime is(th) over .500!

In perhaps the most stunning development since Bruce Willis was dead at the end of the Sixth Sense (spoiler alert), I’ve somehow managed to string together three straight winning weeks and pull my record into the green.

My only concern now; am I peaking too early?

So far, this season has played out like an awful comedy/tragedy. Some walked out of the theater (unsubscribed), some slept through the film (deleted email once it came into your inbox). We laughed, we cried; well, you laughed, I cried.

But then all of a sudden the sad-sack loser main character sprouted wings. Like Rudy, or Angels in the Outfield, or the Mighty Ducks (the movie, not the God-Forsaken pro hockey team), the lovable loser has become a winner in front of your eyes. What a wonderful story!

But there are still three weeks left in the season. Rudy (the Hobbit in Lord of the Rings) finally got on the field and made a big play. The Angels won the pennant behind the arm of Tony Danza. The Ducks beat the Hawks thanks to Emilio Esteves.

No one would give a damn about a hobbit, Tony Danza, or Emilio Esteves if they didn’t finish strong.

I must finish strong. I must take my place among these icons of American cinema.

If I don’t, my season was just Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense all along.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 12 – 3 – 1 (.800)
Without the spread: 12 – 4 – 0 (.750)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 102 – 100 – 6 (.505)
Without the spread: 129 – 79 – 0 (.620)
^Philosophy Picks^: 18 – 20 – 0 (.474)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Kansas City (+10.5) @ NY Jets (-10.5)
New England (-9.0) @ Washington (+9.0)
Atlanta (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
Indianapolis (+16.5) @ Baltimore (-16.5)
Minnesota (+10.0) @ Detroit (-10.0)
Houston (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
San Francisco (-4.0) @ Arizona (+4.0)
Buffalo (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Oakland (+11.5) @ Green Bay (-11.5)
NY Giants (+4.5) @ Dallas (-4.5)
St. Louis (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
Chicago (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) TIE

THE BAD

Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

Lots of underdogs this week!

THURSDAY

Jacksonville (+14.0) @ Atlanta (-14.0)
Bettors and bookmakers obviously aren’t sold on Jacksonville’s 41-point performance, and I’m not, either. This is still a completely one-dimensional offense behind the running game of Maurice Jones-Drew, and Atlanta’s rushing defense (ranked 5th in the NFL) is a bit more daunting than Tampa Bay’s (28th). All of that said, I don’t feel comfortable laying 14 points on Atlanta. Of Atlanta’s eight wins this season, only one has been by more than 14 points; and can we really count the Indianapolis Colts as a pro team this year? Jacksonville probably doesn’t get much more than 13-17 points, but with the extra 14 tacked on, that could be enough to cover the spread. Plus, maybe last week’s explosion gives this team a little confidence boost. For the second straight week, I’ll go with the big underdog on Thursday night and hope for the best.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

SATURDAY

Dallas (-7.0) @ Tampa Bay (+7.0)
Both of these teams are awful at covering spreads (both are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games), so with that wash in mind, I just have to keep it simple and go with Dallas. Tampa Bay’s defense is abysmal against both the run and pass; there’s no good reason to believe they should be able to hold Dallas to under 30 points. Dallas loves to keep games closer than they should be, but if they score 31 to 34 points, that should be enough to get the cover. Motivation won’t be a concern either coming off of two straight losses and losing the division lead.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

SUNDAY

Carolina (+6.0) @ Houston (-6.0)
Houston has been on a remarkable run, winning seven straight and covering the spread in all seven despite key injuries all over the place. Last week, we saw San Francisco exhale after clinching their division and get upset by Arizona; I think we are going to see the same thing in this game. Houston clinched its first playoff spot in franchise history last week with a thrilling come-from-behind victory, and while they are still playing for the top seed in the AFC, they’re bound to subconsciously let up a little. Carolina is due for a big win too as they’ve been battling hard all year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Washington (+6.5) @ NY Giants (-6.5)
The last time New York won a game by more than a touchdown was back in Week 3, making them a tough team to give up 6.5 points on. But after losing four straight, the Giants pulled back into a tie in the NFC East with a huge win over Dallas last week; and they should be plenty motivated to stay there. Going up against an inferior team, even in the form of a division rival, with two tough games looming, the Giants have all the incentive they need to put their best effort together, and that should be enough to win by at least a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Miami (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
One of my favorite picks on the board this week, I love Buffalo for one simple reason; weather. Miami lost its positive momentum with an ugly loss at home last week, and Tony Sparano was fired as a result. Now, with little to play for, this warm-weather team has to travel up to Buffalo where the weather report calls for 35 degrees and 10 MPH winds; along with a 30% chance of snow. Buffalo has lost six straight and should be chomping at the bits for this opportunity to finally win again, and I think they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Seattle (+3.5) @ Chicago (-3.5)
Tim Tebow has Tebow’d plenty of teams, but last week’s version seemed to be particularly soul-crushing. There is nothing to like about Chicago’s offense, and the miraculous way they coughed up the game last week played out like an ugly swan song to the season. Seattle is red-hot with wins in four of their last five, and Pete Carroll has this team fired up; likely reminding them that they’re still alive in the playoff race, and they snuck in last year by persevering late. In what should be an ugly, defensive game, I see Seattle gutting out a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

New Orleans (-7.0) @ Minnesota (+7.0)
Plain and simple, New Orleans is not a great road team. All three of the Saints’ losses this season came on the road, and only one of their four road wins was by more than five points (back in Week 4 against Jacksonville). Couple that with the fact that Adrian Peterson returns this week and the Saints give up 4.9 rushing yards per carry, I think this is a much more dangerous spot than records (10-3 versus 2-11) would indicate. The Saints will get the job done, but my guess is it’ll be another nail-biter and Minnesota covers the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0)
It says a lot when a team that has lost four of its last five games is a seven-point favorite on the road, but that’s how bad St. Louis is. Despite the ugly stretch, Cincinnati is still alive in the AFC Wild Card race, and while they aren’t really built to cover big spreads, I have trouble making a case for St. Louis. Especially considering St. Louis has played in four straight games against divisional opponents; remember I picked against Cincinnati for that reason last week. Only expect about 10 points or so from St. Louis, and I’d imagine Cincinnati could get to 17 on this defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Tennessee (-6.5) @ Indianapolis (+6.5)
Sigh… here we are again. Indianapolis, at home, needing a win to avoid becoming the second team in modern football history, should show up in this game fighting tooth and nail. If they do, with the way Chris Johnson has disappeared in many games this season and with a few late touchdown drives under Dan Orlovsky’s belt, the Colts could conceivably pull off the upset here. I know I’m just being stupid; Tennessee is a strong team and will likely roll to a 27-3 win. But a division rival home underdog in search of its first win getting 6.5 points? Come on Indy, for once step up for me and at least keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Green Bay (-13.5) @ Kansas City (+13.5)
An awfully scary pick, but a textbook philosophy pick. Kansas City is coming off of a 27-point blowout loss, and Green Bay is coming off of a 30-point blowout win. Nearly 90% of all bettors are on Green Bay, but the line moved from +14.0 to +13.5. At this point, regular season perfection has to be so close for Green Bay that they can taste it; would failing to take a simple game like this seriously be too shocking? It’s a long shot; seeing Green Bay score less than 24 is quite unlikely, and Kansas City has scored 10 points or less in six straight games. But my hope is that with Kyle Orton back, Kansas City gets to 17 to 20… and Green Bay sleepwalks to a 31-20 win. I don’t love it, but I ignored my rule in last week’s Philadelphia at Miami game and regretted it; gotta follow it this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Detroit (-1.0) @ Oakland (+1.0)
Maybe it’s just the fan in me (not likely, since I pick against the Raiders all the time), but I think Oakland is going to win this game. The last two games have been nothing short of awful; but back at home, in a must-win situation against a team that isn’t playing very well either (3-5 straight up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games) in Detroit, I think Oakland will dig deep and find a way to win. Getting Denarius Moore back is a huge help and should help keep the secondary honest, and Michael Bush should be able to get back on track against a rushing defense that hasn’t played all that well this season. Detroit is a very good team, and this one could easily go either way; but while most have given up on the Raiders after their last two losses, I haven’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

New England (-7.5) @ Denver (+7.5)
New England is an extremely popular pick this week. After all, this has to be the week that this Tebow nonsense comes to an end, right? Just like it had to be in all of the other ridiculous upsets that this team has pulled off. My football brain tells me New England will win big, but this Denver team has team of destiny written all over it, and I’m not giving up 7.5 points at home to a team like this. Besides, New England’s defense is bad enough to let this team move the ball; they did just give up 27 points to Washington, after all. After the last two months, will anything surprise you with this team anymore?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

NY Jets (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
The New York Jets are a tough team to gauge. They look to be back in form and on their way to another Wild Card berth with three straight wins, but on the other hand, those wins came against three bad teams (Buffalo, Washington, and Kansas City). The Jets are just 1-5 in six games against teams over .500 this year and 7-0 against teams that are under .500. Are the Jets a legitimate playoff contender or just a beneficiary of a soft schedule to this point? While Philadelphia falls into the “under .500” category, this team certainly has elite talent when healthy. This game will be a good litmus test for the Jets; personally, I place them in the contender category, so I think they’ll pick up the win this week. And while Philadelphia looked good last week, they certainly haven’t been a model of consistency this year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Jets

Cleveland (+6.5) @ Arizona (-6.5)
I don’t love giving up 6.5 points on Arizona, but it beats the alternative of taking the Browns +6.5. Cleveland has scored 12 points or less in seven of their last eight games, and will be without its best offensive player Sunday as Colt McCoy was injured last week. Arizona is on a roll at 5-1 in its last six games, though all five wins were by six points or less. This one will be close, but I have to side with the hot team still alive in the playoff hunt at home over a lifeless team missing its quarterback on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Baltimore (-2.5) @ San Diego (+2.5)
Baltimore is arguably the best team in the AFC, and I may be blowing two easy wins over bad teams for San Diego way out of proportion, but it looks to me like the Chargers have their swagger back. It’s probably too little too late this year, but every year the Chargers get hot to end the season and steamroll over any and all comers; and if the last two weeks are any indication, it looks like they are back in that mode. Baltimore is a bit suspect on the road as all three of its losses have come away from home. I like Baltimore’s team better, but in San Diego, I’ve convinced myself that the Chargers will pull off the upset this Sunday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Diego

MONDAY

Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ San Francisco (-2.5)
This game to me is a test to see just how legit San Francisco really is. The 49ers have lost two of their last three, and now they get a Pittsburgh team at home that is an elite team but isn’t at their best; James Harrison is out with a suspension, and Ben Roethlisberger is hobbled with a leg injury. There’s no doubt that the 49ers are good, but are they great? A great team wouldn’t lose this game. I’m not sure yet whether San Francisco is great, but after years at the top, I know that Pittsburgh is. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if San Francisco takes it, but in a virtual coin flip between two great defenses, I have to go with the team with the proven track record.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 53 – 36 – 1 (.596)

I know I said this last week, but I’ll likely put out my “bowl picks” video *next* week.

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!