Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

We are right in the heart of the holiday season this weekend.

Apparently the NFL decided that it didn’t want to try and compete with Jolly Ol’ Saint Nick for ratings (or make most of its players play on Christmas Day), so we get a Saturday full of NFL action.

Last week, the league reminded us just why people like me have no chance in predicting this stuff as a winless 0-13 team beat a team in the hunt for a playoff spot and an undefeated 13-0 powerhouse lost to a lousy team with little offense. “Any given Sunday”, as they say.

All I want for Christmas/Hannukah this year is an Oakland win Saturday and a winning record here on the Dime. Is that SO much to ask?

Whatever you celebrate and whoever you are celebrating with, have a wonderful weekend everyone!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 2 (.429)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 108 – 108 – 8 (.500)
Without the spread: 138 – 86 – 0 (.616)
^Philosophy Picks^: 19 – 20 – 0 (.487)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Dallas (-7.0) @ Tampa Bay (+7.0)
Carolina (+6.0) @ Houston (-6.0)
Seattle (+3.5) @ Chicago (-3.5)
Tennessee (-6.5) @ Indianapolis (+6.5)
Green Bay (-13.5) @ Kansas City (+13.5)
Baltimore (-2.5) @ San Diego (+2.5)
Cincinnati (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0) TIE
Detroit (-1.0) @ Oakland (+1.0) TIE

THE BAD

Jacksonville (+14.0) @ Atlanta (-14.0)
Washington (+6.5) @ NY Giants (-6.5)
Miami (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
New Orleans (-7.0) @ Minnesota (+7.0)
New England (-7.5) @ Denver (+7.5)
NY Jets (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Arizona (-6.5)
Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ San Francisco (-2.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

THURSDAY

Houston (-7.0) @ Indianapolis (+7.0)
There is a very good chance that Houston imposes its will on both sides of the ball and wins this game easily. But I get the feeling it will go differently; with Houston’s loss last week, the Texans’ chances of getting a first round bye look much bleaker, and with Indianapolis remembering what it feels like to win with a win last week, I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out fired up at home to feel that feeling again. I half expect Houston to settle into “stay-healthy-for-the-playoffs” mode and ease up a bit while Indianapolis goes full throttle for another win. Also, I’m no conspiracy theorist, nor do I believe teams throw games on purpose; but if you were the Texans, wouldn’t losing to the Colts this week and giving Indy a chance to play their way out of Andrew Luck benefit you long term? Just throwing it out there… I’m guessing this one stays close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

SATURDAY

Oakland (+2.5) @ Kansas City (-2.5)
Before they beat the Green Bay Packers last week, the Kansas City Chiefs were a team that had lost five of their last six games while scoring no more than 10 points in any of those games. Oakland has certainly fallen off in recent weeks, but its been partially due to the quality of competition. The stars aligned perfectly last week for Kansas City, and credit to them, they played an incredible game; but Oakland is the better team here, and in dire need of a win to stay alive in the playoff race, I think they get one Saturday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
Tennessee was humiliated last week after losing to the then-winless Colts, and now the Titans get the perfect team to take their aggression out on this week in a very weak Jacksonville team. I don’t love giving up seven points on Tennessee, especially with Chris Johnson banged up, but I expect frustration from last week to boil over into a strong effort which should be enough to top the Jaguars by double-digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Miami (+9.5) @ New England (-9.5)
This one isn’t easy as both teams have been playing great lately. Miami had the slip up against Philadelphia, but that’s starting to look more like Philadelphia finding its form than the Dolphins losing theirs. New England has left no doubt that they’re the team to beat in the AFC at this point and they aren’t going to lose this game at home; but Miami’s defense is good enough to keep the Patriots to around 28 to 31 points, and the offense can get the required 21 to 24 points to earn the cover here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Arizona (+4.5) @ Cincinnati (-4.5)
Arizona has been playing great, and I believe this game is a 50/50 that will come right down to the wire. I give Cincinnati the slight edge with home field advantage, but these are both defense driven teams playing with a lot of confidence right now. Could go either way, but I’ll say Cincinnati wins it on a late field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Denver (-2.5) @ Buffalo (+2.5)
Denver has the league’s best rushing attack with Tim Tebow at the helm, and Buffalo ranks 29th in the league with an awful rushing defense. Denver’s defense is much better than it looked last week and should be able to contain Buffalo’s offense, and the Bills have lost seven straight and haven’t put up much of a fight along the way. Tebow can’t seem to win without making the game into a late-heroics episode, but this one should be fairly easy for the Broncos if they play to their potential, which they have plenty of motivation to do to eliminate San Diego from contention.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

St. Louis (+12.5) @ Pittsburgh (-12.5)
Pure and simple, Pittsburgh’s offense has been struggling. The decision to start Charlie Batch this week is wise for the playoff run, but it certainly isn’t going to help the offensive issues. The Rams also have to look at Roethlisberger’s day off as a slight to them; Pittsburgh is basically saying they can beat the Rams without their starting quarterback. I think they are right, but that doesn’t mean St. Louis has to like it. I think the Rams will give it their all, which might be enough to keep this loss within 10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

NY Giants (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)
I honestly have no clue on this one. Both teams are playing for their playoff lives, both teams are coming off of extremely ugly losses, and both teams are playing in their home stadium. On their best days, these are two teams that look capable of making a Super Bowl run; at their off days, it’s ugly. I guess I have to go with the Jets as the Giants have been awful on defense and have struggled to run the ball, which should give the Jets the chance to hone in on the passing game and get the job done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Minnesota (+7.0) @ Washington (-7.0)
Last week, Washington pulls off a thrilling upset over New York, dominating the game from start to finish on the road. Meanwhile, at home, Minnesota gets completely pummeled by New Orleans. Look what happened last week when Kansas City came in off of a blowout loss and Green Bay came in off of a blowout win, or the week before when Philadelphia came in off of a big loss and Miami came in off of a big win, or the week… you get the idea. I love these high-low spots in the NFL, and this one definitely fits the bill; and besides that, from a talent perspective, I don’t think much separates these two teams anyway.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Minnesota

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Carolina (-7.5)
See above. Carolina just beat one of the AFC’s best teams on the road convincingly, while Tampa Bay lost its eighth straight game on a Saturday night when no other games were on to mask the embarrassment. I do think Carolina is a better team than Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers have to look at this as their last legitimate chance to get a win this season with a road trip to Atlanta coming next week, and there’s still enough talent here to put up a fight against a division rival. Love the +7.5, and while the outright upset is a lot riskier, I’ll go with that too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Tampa Bay

Cleveland (+12.0) @ Baltimore (-12.0)
This one is tricky. I see something in the 21-10, 24-10, 24-13, 27-13 range here; some of those scores gets Baltimore the cover, others give the edge to Cleveland. Forced to choose, I guess I’ll go with the Ravens covering the big spread at home. After last week’s awful loss to San Diego and needing to hold on to the AFC North lead over Pittsburgh, Baltimore should be plenty motivated to have a big game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

San Diego (+2.0) @ Detroit (-2.0)
This spread seems strange to me. San Diego has looked excellent in its last three games, and I definitely think they are the better team at this very moment than Detroit is. Most seem to agree, as about 70% of betting action is coming in on San Diego. Is that enough to make Detroit a philosophy pick? I don’t think so; this is a Lions team that is 9-5 and looking to clinch a playoff spot, at home. How much different could the spread really be? Maybe it’s a trap, but if so, I’ll spring it and go with San Diego.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Diego

Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Dallas (-1.0)
Much like San Diego, Philadelphia is finally rounding into form very late in the season. If the Giants lose to the Jets, Dallas would have the opportunity to clinch the NFC East with a win. But on the flip side, if the Giants lose and Philadelphia wins, the Eagles would keep their playoff chances alive, so motivation would go both ways. No disrespect to Dallas, but I think the Eagles playing to their potential can beat anyone, and getting them right now at +1.0 is too good to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia

San Francisco (-1.0) @ Seattle (+1.0)
Yet another tough spread. First instinct suggests that Seattle should be a philosophy pick as such a small underdog against an 11-3 team coming off of a big win against Pittsburgh. But looking at the Seahawks, they are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games and have won five of their last six; why shouldn’t they be considered a threat to win this one at home? Especially with San Francisco needing to travel on a short week. With that in mind, I do consider this a very close game, but I once again have to go with the road team. Seattle’s success has been driven by Marshawn Lynch, and the 49ers just don’t allow teams to run. It should be a good, close game, but I think the 49ers prevail.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

SUNDAY

Chicago (+11.0) @ Green Bay (-11.0)
A few weeks ago, this would have looked like must-see-TV on Christmas; the undefeated Packers going up against a hated division rival fighting for a playoff spot. Now, it’s a very bad Bears team decimated by injuries going up against a far-superior Packers team that has a loss. It’s hard to believe I’m going to give 11 points to the Bears, especially with their excellent defense, but the Packers need this win to clinch home field advantage and I’m sure they’ll also want a confidence boosting effort on both sides of the ball after last week’s awful performance. At home, I expect Green Bay to get back on track with a blowout victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

MONDAY

Atlanta (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Despite plenty of signs pointing towards the Saints in this one (they are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their last six games and in all six of their home games this year), I can’t pass up on seven points on Atlanta. The Falcons have also been playing very well lately, and they’d love to clinch a playoff spot and get some revenge for their overtime loss at home to New Orleans earlier this year. I don’t see New Orleans losing this game at home, but these two teams always play close, and I believe this game will be no exception.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 53 – 36 – 1 (.596)

Bowl picks video coming out this week, stay tuned!

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!