Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

It’s Sunday morning, and I am feeling this very odd feeling.

Usually, with Sunday’s morning games just a few hours away, I feel things like fear and hopelessness.

Beads of sweat pour down my forehead. I curl up in the fetal position and cry.

I have this ingrained knowledge deep down that these oblong pigskins around the country are going to bounce, flip, and spiral in some magical combination of ways to screw me over and make my picks look like complete gibberish.

But on this morning, I have no sweat on my brow. No tears in my eyes. I have this peculiar feeling that I’ve never felt, but only read about in books.

I think they call it “confidence”.

Yesterday I went 7-2 ATS on my college picks, a remarkably good result. And it hit me; the football gods owe me a few of these.

Last year, I was their whipping boy. They arbitrarily selected me and my loyal following of seven readers as their victims. They said “This kid thinks he can pick games as well as someone randomly flipping a coin, huh? We’ll show him how superior random coin flips are to his passion and analysis!”

Well NO MORE! This year, the football gods do the opposite, and grant me super powers! They’ve had their fun, and now it is my turn!

So in summation, I’ve basically just cursed myself to 15 straight losing weeks, revealed myself to be a raving lunatic, and rambled way too long in this intro. Guess now’s a good a time as any to start, then?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 7 – 1 (.533)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.687)
^Philosophy Picks^: 3 – 3 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 15 – 15 – 2 (.500)
Without the spread: 20 – 12 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 3 – 4 – 0 (.429)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tampa Bay (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
Chicago (+6.5) @ New Orleans (-6.5)
Baltimore (-6.0) @ Tennessee (+6.0)
Jacksonville (+8.5) @ NY Jets (-8.5)
Seattle (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Arizona (+3.5) @ Washington (-3.5)
Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5)
St. Louis (+6.5) @ NY Giants (-6.5)
Dallas (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0) TIE

THE BAD

Kansas City (+7.5) @ Detroit (-7.5)
Oakland (+4.0) @ Buffalo (-4.0)
Cleveland (-2.0) @ Indianapolis (+2.0)
Green Bay (-10.0) @ Carolina (+10.0)
San Diego (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0)
Houston (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Denver (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

Houston (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
With two of the best offenses in the league meeting up in this one, it should be a fun game to watch. While I could see Houston shooting out with New Orleans down to the wire, this is easily the toughest offense they’ve faced after dealing with Indianapolis and Miami so far. This is also a more hostile road environment than last week, no disrespect to Miami fans. Ben Tate has done a fine job filling in for Arian Foster, but at less than full strength, I think Houston will fall short this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

NY Giants (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
So this looks like an awful spread, even with Mike Vick returning… but I’ll bite. Philadelphia should be amped up for their home opener, and New York has looked out of sync on offense all season; missing Mario Manningham this week will only make it worse. After last week’s collapse, the Eagles defense should be chomping at the bit for some redemption, and I believe they’ll get it in a strong showing here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Cam Newton is behind only Tom Brady in passing yards, but will this be the week it results in a win? I’m thinking yes. Blaine Gabbert will start for Jacksonville, and while it’s been a good year for rookie quarterbacks (with Newton and Andy Dalton both looking solid), I’m not convinced Gabbert is ready so soon. I’m thinking he’ll go through some growing pains, and Cam Newton will do enough to pick up NFL win number one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

New England (-7.0) @ Buffalo (+7.0)
I’m done trying to overthink the Patriots. Fact is, Tom Brady is too damn good to stop, and if Buffalo gave up a huge day to Jason Campbell and the Raiders, what chance do they have this week? And furthermore, I’m still not sold on Buffalo; so they beat Kansas City and Oakland. All of a sudden they’re a playoff team? New England has won 15 straight against Buffalo and is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games in Buffalo. Think this is a scary spot for the Pats? Surprised the Bills are getting much love in this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Miami (+2.0) @ Cleveland (-2.0)
So I keep sticking my neck out for Miami, and they keep blowing it. Well, last season they went 6-2 on the road compared to 1-7 at home… maybe their bad luck at home has carried over into this year? Whatever the case may be, keep in mind they did lose to New England and Houston, two likely playoff teams with excellent offenses. Cleveland is a much lower-tier team, and one that Miami should be able to handle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

San Francisco (+2.5) @ Cincinnati (-2.5)
At first, I was stunned that San Francisco was an underdog here. But then, they are pretty banged up, and for as bad as I had Cincinnati penciled in to be, they’ve actually been pretty competitive against fellow low-tier teams. I still consider San Francisco a low-tier team, and with Cincinnati playing their first home game while San Francisco plays their first road game, I’ll take a stab on the Bengals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Denver (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
This isn’t a slight overreaction to last week? Tennessee put it all together on both sides of the ball against Baltimore in a very impressive win, but let’s not forget, this is the same Titans team that dropped to Jacksonville in Week One. Denver is bad, but are they seven points worse than Tennessee? I don’t think so at all. Chris Johnson should be the difference here, but I’m expecting four quarters of fairly evenly-matched football between two bad teams, and Denver covers the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Detroit (-3.5) @ Minnesota (+3.5)
My favorite game of the week. Any time a team is favored one week at home and then an underdog the following week, they are automatically a philosophy pick for me, with pride and two straight weeks at home as the main reasons. Then, tack on that it’s against a team coming off of a blowout win, its a 2-0 vs. an 0-2, no one is giving Minnesota a chance, AND the spread is conspicuously low?!? I’m not sure if Philosophy Picks are ever going to get back on track, but if they do, it’ll have to be with slam dunks like this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Minnesota

Baltimore (-5.0) @ St. Louis (+5.0)
While not quite as perfect a package as the Minnesota game, this one is a real head-scratcher too. St. Louis has lost two straight games by double-digits, they are 1-5 straight up and ATS in their last six games dating back to last year, and they don’t have their starting running back or best wide receiver. How in the world is this team such a small favorite against Baltimore? Sure, Baltimore just had the ugly loss to Tennessee last week, but everyone is writing that off as a fluke; if anything, it makes them MORE dangerous this week, doesn’t it? I can’t come up with a single reason to like St. Louis here, which is probably why 90% of the betting public is on Baltimore. You know me, I HAVE to take the hopeless cases. While I will take the points, I DO think Baltimore avoids falling to 1-2.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

NY Jets (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
I’m crazy enough to pick Oakland outright in this one. Sure, they get back Kevin Boss and Darrius Heyward-Bey, two big weapons in the passing game; but this is actually about the Raiders defense against the Jets’ offense. New York hasn’t looked sharp on offense this year, and with center Nick Mangold out of this game, I expect things to be even uglier running and passing the ball. Sure, the Raider D collapsed badly in the second half of the last game; but credit the Bills for the offensive explosion. I don’t think New York is that in sync yet. It’ll take an ugly, 17-14 type of game; but with New York traveling cross-country this week and maybe even looking ahead a little to Baltimore and New England, I’ll guess they trip up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Kansas City (+14.5) @ San Diego (-14.5)
From an X’s and O’s perspective, I can’t find any good reason to expect Kansas City, who has been outscored 89-10 through two games, to put up any fight at all against San Diego. But with San Diego’s history of slow starts, and more importantly the fact that this is a division rivalry and an NFL team receiving over 14 points… on principle, I’m afraid I have to take the hapless Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Arizona (-3.5) @ Seattle (+3.5)
Seattle is a much better home team than they are a road team, which has part of me believing that they may pick up the win this week. But Kevin Kolb has looked great under center for Arizona, and the team seems to be playing with confidence right now. And honestly, I can’t get over Seattle’s terrible quarterback play. It could go either way, but I’ll side with the Cardinals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Atlanta (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
This game was the hardest on the board for me, and I went back and forth on it a dozen times before eventually just deciding to go with my gut. It might be a trap, but then it might not be. These two teams always play close, but Atlanta always comes out on top. I think it’ll come down to the last drive of the game, and Ryan and Freeman are both very capable down the stretch. Flip a coin, roll a die, do what you have to do. I’m going to take Atlanta, simply because they are in my opinion the better team and there isn’t enough here by my criteria to chalk this one up as a trap/philosophy game for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Green Bay (-4.0) @ Chicago (+4.0)
One of the few games I’m knowingly going on the heavy public side, you have to accept that when you pick Green Bay (like New England), you are going to have a lot of people on your side. As these two teams constantly prove, that isn’t always a bad thing. Chicago has given up 10 sacks already this season; look for Green Bay to send plenty of pressure, Jay Cutler to make plenty of mistakes, and Green Bay to win by a touchdown or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Indianapolis (+10.5)
My final philosophy pick of the week, much like the Baltimore game, I can’t find any way to make a case for Indianapolis. They just lost at home to the Cleveland Browns, and now they get one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. Kerry Collins is going to successfully navigate through this? They certainly aren’t going to be able to run the ball. And a Colts defense that has been torched through two games is going to make the difference? Pittsburgh may look “too good to be true”, but in the end, they are a double-digit road favorite; and no matter how obvious they may be, they often find ways to not work out.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Washington (+4.0) @ Dallas (-4.0)
This is me being stubborn to the nth degree. Miles Austin is out, Felix Jones and Dez Bryant are questionable, Tony Romo is not 100%. Yet for some reason, I’m going to not only take Dallas, but I’ll give up 4.0 points too. I STILL am not buying Rex Grossman or the Redskins as legit. Should they be able to cover a 4-point spread on what will essentially be a banged up B-team for Dallas? Probably. But I don’t care; the rest of the country will call it “heroic” when cracked-ribs Tony Romo leads the beat up Cowboys to a comfortable win; I’ll call it obvious.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 5 – 4 – 1 (.556)

1. Minnesota +3.5
2. St. Louis +5.0
3. Indianapolis +10.5
4. New England -7.0
5. Denver +7.0

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 20 – 13 – 0 (.606)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-4/

Eastern Michigan +28.5 (WIN)
Oklahoma State +4.5 (WIN)
Ohio State -16.5 (WIN)
Clemson -2.5 (WIN)
South Carolina -15.5 (WIN)
Baylor -20.5 (WIN)
Central Florida/BYU Under 44 (WIN)
Arkansas/Alabama Under 51 (LOSS)
LSU/West Virginia Under 48 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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