Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Hey all! The Dime comes to you this week live from Las Vegas, where I’m in town for Frozen Fury (the annual Los Angeles Kings preseason game that went terribly this season in a 4-1 loss).

I have plenty of clever (or at least, nonsense that I perceive to be clever) thoughts in my head, but I’m going to keep both my intro and my pick descriptions short and sweet this week, for two reasons.

1. I’m in Las Vegas. I should be drinking, gambling, and then following that up with more drinking and gambling. Not in my room typing.

2. Remarkably, since waking up from a nap at 8pm on Thursday night, I have slept two hours total. That’s right. As I write this sentence at 3 am in the morning, I’ve officially been awake for 53 of the last 55 hours. Therefore, any attempt at being articulate would likely turn my brain to goo, if it hasn’t already taken the form.

So without further a-goo (ado, get it, because I just mentioned goo? Never mind…), let’s get started.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)
Without the spread: 29 – 19 – 0 (.604)
^Philosophy Picks^: 5 – 5 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Houston (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Miami (+2.0) @ Cleveland (-2.0)
Denver (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
Detroit (-3.5) @ Minnesota (+3.5)
NY Jets (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
Kansas City (+14.5) @ San Diego (-14.5)
Green Bay (-4.0) @ Chicago (+4.0)
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Indianapolis (+10.5)

THE BAD

NY Giants (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
New England (-7.0) @ Buffalo (+7.0)
San Francisco (+2.5) @ Cincinnati (-2.5)
Baltimore (-5.0) @ St. Louis (+5.0)
Arizona (-3.5) @ Seattle (+3.5)
Atlanta (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Washington (+4.0) @ Dallas (-4.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

Once again, sorry for some of the write-ups being shorter than usual!

SUNDAY

Detroit (+2.5) @ Dallas (-2.5)
Dallas’s offense is suffering with injuries, and Detroit’s tough defense won’t make things any easier. I actually think the Lions are the superior team, and they’ve proven so far that they aren’t afraid to play on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Carolina (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5)
Cam Newton’s toughest test to date, as Chicago is not only a stingy defense but also Newton’s first true road test, apologies to Arizona’s defense. Also, this will be the Bears’ easiest opponent of the season so far with toughies against Atlanta, New Orleans, and Green Bay arguably making them look worse than they actually are. Good spot for a comfortable Chicago win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Buffalo (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
Cincinnati coming off of a home loss to San Francisco, Buffalo coming off of an incredible come-from-behind victory for the second straight week? Not only is this a nice philosophy spot on those points, but the line at just -3.0 for Buffalo here is laughable, and despite tons of action on Buffalo, it hasn’t moved. Bookmakers definitely want you on Buffalo this week, so I’ll take the opposite side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cincinnati

Tennessee (-1.0) @ Cleveland (+1.0)
Not much separating these two teams, including their surprising 2-1 starts. I’ll go with Tennessee, simply because at this point I respect their wins more than Cleveland’s, and expect Chris Johnson to wake up sooner than later.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Minnesota (-2.5) @ Kansas City (+2.5)
At first I thought this looked like a trap spread, but upon further review, I don’t think so. Both of these teams have their share of problems at 0-3, and Kansas City is at home, so making them a large underdog wouldn’t have made too much sense. So just looking at it from a football perspective, I’m with the betting public that Minnesota is the pick here; they’ve coughed up three straight big leads, but against the Chiefs, they should be able to manage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Washington (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
This line opened as a pick’em, which I thought was odd considering St. Louis has lost all three of their games this season by double digits and should have been a sizeable underdog. But I think that initial line is telling; bookmakers still seem to put some faith in St. Louis. With Steven Jackson returning and after last week’s humiliation, I think St. Louis does find a way to somehow get win number one this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

New Orleans (-7.0) @ Jacksonville (+7.0)
New Orleans seems to play down to their opponent’s level on the road quite often, and my gut tells me this will be one of those games. I think Maurice Jones-Drew will have a big day on the ground, and while the Saints will win, it won’t be by more than a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5)
Take the team names and logos off the jerseys and just look at how these two teams have played this season, and Houston should be an even bigger favorite at home, especially with Arian Foster returning. Pittsburgh will come around, but I’m not going to pick them just because of who they are; they’ve looked bad this season, and Houston looks like a legitimate playoff team. I think they make a statement that they belong with the big boys in a nice win this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

San Francisco (+9.5) @ Philadelphia (-9.5)
Is this the week that Philadelphia puts it all together on both sides of the ball? Perhaps. But with a banged up Mike Vick and much more alarmingly a surprisingly shaky defense, I can’t keep laying these huge amounts of points. I don’t love San Francisco’s chances, but I’ll guess they keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

NY Giants (-1.0) @ Arizona (+1.0)
One team goes into Philadelphia and beats the Eagles big, while the other loses to pitiful Seattle. Arizona opens as a 3-point underdog, and despite New York getting most of the betting action, the line has actually moved AGAINST Arizona down to +1.0. Something very fishy going on here; either Vegas wants us on New York, or the slim minority betting Arizona is a lot smarter (and richer) than the majority. I’ll go with those guys!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Arizona

Atlanta (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
Seattle is a different team at home; that 12th man really does do something for them. And Atlanta? They suddenly look like a shell of last season’s team, especially on the road. Their the much better team on paper, but I get the feeling this will just be another ugly game for them. Still, they should find a way to win, even if it’s closer than it should be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Miami (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
San Diego has scraped by Minnesota and Kansas City and lost badly to New England this season, not exactly top level football. But then, Miami is 0-3 and has been torched on defense against good passing attacks, which San Diego has. Who sucks less this Sunday? I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but with seven points, I think Miami can keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

New England (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0)
Tom Brady, as many are expecting, will be very angry after last week and take it out on the Raiders this week. I’m on board with that. But this is the worst New England defense we’ve seen in a long time, and it’s the best Raiders offense we’ve seen in a long time. I’m not so sure the Raiders can’t shootout with this Patriots team, if that’s what it takes. Very tough game to get a handle on, but at home, I can’t pass on six points in a game I think could be very good.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Denver (+12.0) @ Green Bay (-12.0)
Green Bay obviously has the talent to cover a spread like this against a team like Denver, but they didn’t really have a killer instinct against Carolina, and they might look ahead a little to next week’s game at Atlanta. Coin flip type of game, and since I seem to be taking the points all over the place this weekend, I’ll take them here too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

NY Jets (+4.0) @ Baltimore (-4.0)
My favorite game on the board this week. 12 of 16 games last week were decided by seven points or less; these two teams were in games that weren’t. New York got embarrassed and humiliated by Oakland in a 34-24 loss, while Baltimore coasted to an easy 37-7 victory. Not only is this a huge bounce back opportunity for the Jets and letdown opportunity for the Ravens, but you also get four points; considering both of these teams defensive styles, it seems very likely to be close either way. Baltimore is a great team, but I think Sunday night is the Jets’ spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*NY Jets

MONDAY

Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Tampa Bay (-10.0)
Curtis Painter is starting for Indianapolis. I just can’t do it. 10 points is enticing, especially after the strong effort by the Colts defense this week. But Curtis Painter? On the road? On Monday Night Football? I just can’t. Tampa Bay has to roll in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 8 – 6 – 1 (.571)

1. NY Jets +4.0
2. Cincinnati +3.0
3. Arizona +1.0
4. Chicago -6.5
5. St. Louis +3.0

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 24 – 17 – 1 (.585)

Week 5 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-5/

Penn State -15.5 (LOSS)
Texas Tech -6.5 (WIN)
Arizona +12.5 (WIN)
Georgia Tech -10.0 (TIE)
Clemson +7.0 (WIN)
Ball State +38 (LOSS)
Tulsa -22.5 (LOSS)
Notre Dame -11.5 (WIN)
Idaho/Virginia Over 52.5 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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