Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I like games like tonight’s East Carolina at Houston game.

I picked East Carolina +11.5 on my college football video. I pointed out that they have an excellent quarterback, that Houston’s defense sucks and can’t stop anyone, and that it was a pretty even matchup that could go either way, and the 11.5 points was a gift.

Houston beat East Carolina 56 – 3.

So why do I LIKE a game like that?

Because I was flat out wrong. Wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong.

There’s no woe is me. There’s no being up 14 points to see one TD with 30 seconds to go, and then the best rushing attack in the nation inexplicably fumbling the ball and having the other team pick it up and run it in for a touchdown to make you push instead of win (Georgia Tech -10). There’s no being up 41-3 at the end of the third quarter, only to be outscored 21-0 in the fourth capped off by a touchdown with eight seconds left in the game to turn a win into a loss (Tulsa -23.0). There’s no Cam Newton-led “meaningless” touchdown with three seconds to go in the game to cover the spread (Chicago -6.5). There’s no New York Giants fumble ruled not a fumble because the player “declared himself down”, leading to a game winning TD on the next play (Arizona +2.0).

There’s just being good ol’ fashion wrong. What a luxury.

It would be my weekend in Vegas that EVERY one of those fourth quarters would go the way they did…

On a more serious note, I did want to say RIP to Raiders Owner Al Davis, who died Saturday morning. While I certainly didn’t agree with all of his decisions, especially in his later years, I did always appreciate his unyielding love and passion for his team. He was a pioneer of NFL football, and while the last few years haven’t been great for the Oakland Raiders, his full body of work and his legacy deserve the utmost respect. Thanks for all the great memories back in the good ol’ days Al. Just win, baby.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 30 – 32 – 2 (.484)
Without the spread: 40 – 24 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 6 – 7 – 0 (.462)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Detroit (+2.5) @ Dallas (-2.5)
Buffalo (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
Tennessee (-1.0) @ Cleveland (+1.0)
Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5)
San Francisco (+9.5) @ Philadelphia (-9.5)
Atlanta (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)

THE BAD

Carolina (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5)
Minnesota (-2.5) @ Kansas City (+2.5)
Washington (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
New Orleans (-7.0) @ Jacksonville (+7.0)
NY Giants (-1.0) @ Arizona (+1.0)
Miami (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
New England (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0)
Denver (+12.0) @ Green Bay (-12.0)
NY Jets (+4.0) @ Baltimore (-4.0)
Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Tampa Bay (-10.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

Tennessee (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Just looking at the first four games of the season, there isn’t much reason to like Pittsburgh here, especially with their key injuries on both sides of the ball. But I’m still not quite ready to put Tennessee in the legitimate contender category yet, and even when the Steelers are down, going into Pittsburgh and beating them is legitimate contender area. Pittsburgh needs this win to get their season back on track, and at home, I think they get it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Seattle (+9.5) @ NY Giants (-9.5)
The difference between Seattle’s play at home and on the road is like night and day. I hate giving up this many points, especially on a Giants team that likely won’t have Brandon Jacobs’s services, but Seattle has lost by at least two touchdowns in each of their first two games; a trend I don’t really see them breaking here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Cincinnati (-1.0) @ Jacksonville (+1.0)
With heavy rainstorms expected and two rookie quarterbacks under center, this one should be an ugly, run-run-run type of game. While that could favor Maurice Jones-Drew, I like Cincinnati’s defense much better to make stops and come up with a big play or two; so as a result, I’ve got to go with the Bengals
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina (+6.5)
Cam Newton is a spread killer, leading his team on late drives to cover the spread in three of Carolina’s four games this season while winning the other one. Last week I though New Orleans might take a game off on the road against Jacksonville, and they didn’t… what better spot to pick against them on the road again than with this garbage touchdown expert Carolina?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Oakland (+5.0) @ Houston (-5.0)
With rain expected in this game as well, and Andre Johnson out with an injury, this will be another game with a ton of rushing plays; one that should be a lot of fun to watch with two of the best running backs in the game in Arian Foster and Darren McFadden. I like Oakland for multiple reasons here; one, in a game the weather will likely keep close, five points could be very helpful. Two, Houston is coming off of a big emotional win over Pittsburgh, while Oakland is coming off of an embarrassing home loss to New England, so this could be a good bounce-back spot for them. Lastly, with Al Davis’s passing, I think emotions run high and the Raiders find a way to win it outright in his honor. Plenty of philosophy angles in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Philadelphia has grossly underachieved to this point, and in my opinion, Buffalo has overachieved. I think this spread has more to do with Philadelphia screwing bettors over two straight weeks and less to do with the actual talent on the field. Maybe I’m underrating Buffalo far too much, but I just don’t see the Eagles falling to 1-4 this week at the hands of the Bills.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Kansas City (+2.0) @ Indianapolis (-2.0)
Last week, Kansas City willed out a win at home against a bad opponent. I think it’s Indianapolis’s turn this week; they’ve strung together two strong efforts against good teams in Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, and at home against Kansas City, this is their chance to finally get their first win without Peyton Manning.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Arizona (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
I guess I could say the same thing for Minnesota, but I think Arizona is a lot better than Kansas City. Minnesota’s pass defense has been atrocious this season, and I think Kevin Kolb can take advantage of that. Tough pick here, considering Arizona is 1-3 and hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire; but I think both teams come out fired up in this one, and the Cardinals end up on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
Great game, a legitimate coin flip in my opinion. San Francisco is starting to make a slight believer out of me, and they appear to be a runaway favorite in the NFC West all of a sudden. But then, Tampa Bay is also a tough team on the rise. Decisions, decisions. I’ll take the home team, as well as my gut pick, and go with the 49ers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

NY Jets (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
I was ready to go right back to New York as a philosophy pick again after last week’s second straight disaster and New England’s big win over Oakland, but than I realized; the Jets knocked New England out of the playoffs last season after their 14-2 regular season, so this is a big revenge game for the Patriots. Cancelling out philosophy elements? Now I don’t know what to do with this game. Guess I’ll stick with my gut; the Jets are due for a big bounce back game, they always play the Pats well, and center Nick Mangold’s return will do wonders for the offense. I’ll take the points, but Brady and company still get their revenge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

San Diego (-3.5) @ Denver (+3.5)
So let’s see, San Diego beats Miami by 10, Denver loses to Green Bay by 26, about 70% of bettors bet San Diego… and the line moves from San Diego -6.0 to San Diego -3.5?!? On paper, this is a game that San Diego should win by two touchdowns, and with the way my philosophy picks have been going this year, they probably will. But this is a major trap game, and I actually am with Vegas on this one. San Diego always starts the season off slow, and they’ve looked pretty sluggish to start the year. This is the type of game they drop every year; and “easy” one they have no business dropping. Not quite sure how, but I think Denver finds a way to win this one outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Denver

Green Bay (-5.5) @ Atlanta (+5.5)
Green Bay is riding high off of a huge blowout win and a 4-0 start, and they visit Atlanta this week; a team that everyone seems to have written off. I have to some degree as well, but not this week. After finishing the regular season 13-3, Atlanta earned a first-round bye in the playoffs; in their first playoff game, they got humiliated at home by the Packers, losing 48-21 at home while Aaron Rodgers had a huge day. This is a massive revenge spot for Atlanta, and a huge chance for them to get back into the conversation among the NFC’s elite. Green Bay won’t lose many games this year, but I think this will be one of them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Atlanta

MONDAY

Chicago (+5.0) @ Detroit (-5.0)
I love how Detroit has played this season, and I think they will win this game, but I also think this spread is off. Chicago had a brutal opening schedule against Atlanta, New Orleans, and Green Bay, and even though they are only 2-2 you could easily argue they are the best team Detroit has faced this season. At home, Detroit finds a way to win; but like the last two games, it’ll be by a slim margin.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 9 – 10 – 1 (.474)

1. Atlanta +5.5
2. Denver +3.5
3. Philadelphia -3.0
4. Chicago +5.0
5. Oakland +5.0

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 27 – 21 – 1 (.563)

Week 6 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-6/

Clemson -20.5 (WIN)
Arizona -2.0 (LOSS)
LSU -13.0 (WIN)
East Carolina +11.5 (LOSS)
Memphis/Rice Over 58.5 (LOSS)
Vanderbilt/Alabama Over 41.5 (LOSS)
Ohio State/Nebraska Over 44.5 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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