Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

There’s nothing fun about going 15-26-0 against the spread and 3-7 with my philosophy picks over a three-week period.

If not for the spread, I’d have been hailed as a genius in many football circles last week with an 11-2 record including a solid upset pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, coming off of a 48-3 loss, upsetting the New Orleans Saints.

But alas, with the spread, at 4-8-1 I wrapped up another head-scratchingly bad week.

Where do I go from here?

My parents both offered their (unsolicited) advice and words of encouragement. And considering they’re probably the only two people left reading, I must listen.

Dad, via phone call: “Dave-o, I don’t know how you do it. You have the worst luck. If I were you, I’d just quit.”

Mom, via e-mail: “I love you and I love the Dime, win or lose you are a winner in my book…”

So what to do… quit, knowing damn well that I suck at this, or press on, knowing that I’m a winner in my mother’s book no matter what?

Or wait, since I’m a winner “no matter what”, technically I’d be a winner if I quit too… Hmm…

In the end, actions speak louder than words. The last few weeks have made me hate the Dime, but if somewhere deep down under my complete inability to pick winners there wasn’t some part of me that still enjoyed this, I wouldn’t be losing sleep and burning rare free time to do it.

As long as you all keep reading, the Dime, in some form, will live on.

And while it does, maybe, just maybe, I’ll manage another winning week at some point. I’ve got 11 more tries, after all…

(If only I could find a sportsbook that win or lose, I was always a winner…)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 8 – 1 (.333)
Without the spread: 11 – 2 – 0 (.846)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)

Season
With the spread: 39 – 48 – 3 (.448)
Without the spread: 58 – 32 – 0 (.644)
^Philosophy Picks^: 8 – 12 – 0 (.400)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
Houston (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5)
New Orleans (-6.0) @ Tampa Bay (+6.0)
Minnesota (+2.5) @ Chicago (-2.5)
Buffalo (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0) TIE

THE BAD

San Francisco (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
St. Louis (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Carolina (+4.5) @ Atlanta (-4.5)
Indianapolis (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0)
Jacksonville (+12.5) @ Pittsburgh (-12.5)
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Oakland (-6.5)
Dallas (+6.0) @ New England (-6.0)
Miami (+7.0) @ NY Jets (-7.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

San Diego (+1.0) @ NY Jets (-1.0)
This is an ugly game. Neither team has looked particularly sharp this season, other than in their games against winless Miami. San Diego’s been winning more, and as a result have had less locker room turmoil and media scrutiny. As a Raiders fan, I’m rooting for the Jets, but I give a slight edge to San Diego here. I generally always go against a team coming off of a win over a division rival Monday night, and I also think that San Diego will be a bit more focused coming off of the bye week and has a more in-tune offense. We shall see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Diego

Chicago (-2.0) @ Tampa Bay (+2.0)
Off to Europe go two more teams in another edition of the “NFL International Series”. Both teams head to London coming off of big wins, figuratively with Tampa Bay topping New Orleans to take a slim lead in the NFC South and literally with Chicago crushing Minnesota. I like Chicago in this one; Tampa Bay got by against New Orleans without LeGarrette Blount thanks to Josh Freeman taking the team on his shoulders, but against this tough Bears defense I think he’ll run into some problems and Earnest Graham won’t be enough to help take the pressure off. Plus, Chicago is still better than their record indicates.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Washington (+2.5) @ Carolina (-2.5)
I was ready to pick Carolina, but at the last minute realized I was just getting caught up in the excitement. Carolina is a much more exciting team than Washington with star quarterback Cam Newton at the helm; but they’re still just 1-5, with their only win coming against pitiful Jacksonville. The Redskins have the much better defense, and with a boring running game and solid play they’ll grind out a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Atlanta (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
Jahvid Best’s injury is brutal for Detroit. They tried to acquire Ronnie Brown at the trade deadline, but that deal was voided when it was revealed that Jerome Harrison, the player they were trading, was injured. So they head into this game with Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams as their running backs; if you are saying “who?!?”, exactly. Morris is a serviceable backup, but neither of these guys are going to give Atlanta much reason to respect the run. As a result, they should be able to pin their ears back and focus on this deadly passing attack. I still respect the Lions, but I think they lose their second straight this week as the Falcons find their wings.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Seattle (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
I was stunned at how little punch there was in this Cleveland Browns team against the Raiders, especially coming off of a bye week. Peyton Hillis has fallen off the map and the Browns don’t have a running game to speak of. Colt McCoy is having a nice season, but I’m just not seeing it from this team. Seattle is substantially better at home than they are on the road, but with a bye week to prepare and Pete Carroll’s high energy to get them up for the game, I think the Seahawks can take this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Denver (-1.5) @ Miami (+1.5)
TE-BOW! TE-BOW! TE-BOW! The most popular backup quarterback in the league finally gets his shot, and he’s had a bye week to prepare for a winless team. Listen, I’m not a Tebow hater by any stretch, but there’s a reason this guy lost the starting job to Kyle Orton; he’s not an NFL-ready quarterback just yet. He can make big plays with his legs and there’s no doubting his leadership, but there will be growing pains. I agree with Denver’s decision to make the switch and was actually saying all along that he should have been starting since day one, but without the home crowd behind him I think his human side will show this week. Also, Denver’s defense is terrible, and Miami’s running backs should have a nice day. If the Dolphins don’t get their first win here, it could be a long while.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Houston (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Tennessee has had an entire bye week to stew over getting blown out by Pittsburgh and to prepare for this beat up Houston team. This game has huge playoff implications with the early lead in the AFC South on the line. I like Tennessee in this one; I think the home crowd is going to be huge, and I think the Titans defense is much stronger than Houston’s, especially with Mario Williams out for the Texans. I’m still not sure how sold I am on Tennessee, but I do think they’re good enough to pick up the big win this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Kansas City (+3.5) @ Oakland (-3.5)
So much going on this week for the Raiders, with the Jason Campbell injury, the trade for Carson Palmer, and now the injury to Sebastian Janikowski. (For my take on the Palmer trade, check out my NFL Podcast, linked down at the bottom of the Dime). Reports indicate that Palmer won’t start, which is fine by me; let him take the bye week to get re-acclimated to NFL game speed and learn up on the playbook. But whether it’s Boller or Palmer under center, the fact remains that Kansas City isn’t likely to have any kind of answer for Darren McFadden. And when they cheat the run too hard, Hue Jackson won’t be afraid to ask either of these guys to throw down the field. The Janikowski injury concerns me considering this is a division rivalry game, but two wins over bad teams don’t fix all that woes Kansas City; they’ve got issues on both sides of the ball that even without a game-ready quarterback, Oakland should be able to exploit.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Pittsburgh (-4.0) @ Arizona (+4.0)
I liked Pittsburgh, then I though maybe Arizona was a philosophy pick, but now I’m back to Pittsburgh. This looked like a trap line at first, but really, how much bigger of a favorite could they have made this Pittsburgh team on the road? Especially fresh off of a measly 4-point victory at home to Jacksonville? Despite their issues on offense, Pittsburgh is still playing great on defense; and Arizona has been brutally bad on offense. Pittsburgh should be able to beat this team by a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Minnesota (+9.5)
I don’t care how badly philosophy picks are doing, there isn’t anything about this game not to love. 1. 90% of the betting public is betting on Green Bay. 2. Green Bay looks invincible (6-0), Minnesota looks pitiful (1-5). 3. Green Bay is coming off of a blowout 24-3 win, Minnesota is coming off of a blowout 39-10 loss. 4. In a division rivalry game, the home team is a 9.5-point underdog. 5. THE HOME TEAM IN A DIVISION RIVALRY GAME IS A 9.5-POINT UNDERDOG! I think Christian Ponder will do well enough, but I wouldn’t care who was under center in this game. Everything in the world points to Green Bay, making Minnesota my absolute favorite play of the day.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Dallas (-13.5)
St. Louis has almost single-handedly ruined my philosophy pick record this season, and while I’m sure they’ll cover the spread in the one week I don’t pick them, I can’t keep sinking with this ship. Dallas has been a tough luck team and has no reason to show any mercy to St. Louis, and for once, I’m picking against this sadsack team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Indianapolis (+14.0) @ New Orleans (-14.0)
14 points is an awful lot, and I rarely take such big favorites, but New Orleans returns home from a three-week road trip, coming off of an ugly loss, facing one of the worst teams in the NFL. In prime time. All of the pieces are in place for the Saints to use Indy as their punching bag, and the Colts may not be able to do much to stop it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

MONDAY

Baltimore (-8.0) @ Jacksonville (+8.0)
Is this three straight games I’m going with the “square” pick? Looks like it. I put Baltimore behind only Green Bay at this point, they look to me like the team to beat in the AFC. We might see similar to last Monday night’s game in this one; maybe the Ravens start out slow and Jacksonville at home plays well, but as the game wears on the skill discrepancy becomes clear and the better team pulls away. Unlike Pittsburgh, Baltimore’s offense is rolling, so covering the big spread against the Jags shouldn’t be a problem.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 12 – 17 – 1 (.414)

1. Minnesota +9.5
2. Baltimore -8.0
3. Atlanta +4.0
4. Oakland -3.5
5. Miami +1.5

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 33 – 25 – 1 (.588)

Week 8 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-8/

West Virginia -14 (LOSS)
Kansas State -10.0 (WIN)
Virginia Tech -21.0 (LOSS)
Auburn +21.0 (LOSS)
Tulsa -10.5 (WIN)
Nebraska/Minnesota Over 57.0 (LOSS)
Wisconsin/Michigan State Over 50.0 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!BACK!