Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I hate weeks that I actually feel confident.

I suck at this. You know I suck at this, I know I suck at this, the whole town knows I suck at this. Well, anyone in town that knows me, anyway.

But every now and then, a week’s schedule comes along and I feel like I’ve got it all figured out. And there’s this glimmer of hope in my eye, that I could have a big week and actually be respected as more than just a loser clown.

(Yes, I just called myself a loser clown.)

This is one of those weeks. I feel good. I like most of the games, and I’m “due for a big week”. Why not this one?

So I build myself up for the inevitable fall when everything goes to hell this Sunday. Doesn’t it always?

I’ve got my Raiders snuggie, new Kelly Clarkson CD, and a gallon of ice cream ready for the depressed mess I’ll be tonight.

And I’m only 1/3 kidding. You know I can’t eat a gallon of ice cream on my diet!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 6 – 0 (.538)
Without the spread: 10 – 3 – 0 (.769)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 52 – 60 – 4 (.464)
Without the spread: 74 – 42 – 0 (.638)
^Philosophy Picks^: 10 – 12 – 0 (.455)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis (+13.5)
Detroit (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
Washington (+4.0) @ Buffalo (-4.0)
Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Seattle (+1.5)
Cleveland (+9.0) @ San Francisco (-9.0)
New England (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh (+2.5)
San Diego (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)

THE BAD

Arizona (+12.5) @ Baltimore (-12.5)
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Jacksonville (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5)
Miami (+9.5) @ NY Giants (-9.5)
Indianapolis (+9.0) @ Tennessee (-9.0)
Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

Miami (+4.0) @ Kansas City (-4.0)
I almost always go against teams coming off of wins over a division rival Monday night, with the logic being that an emotional game on national television plus a short week will provide a letdown spot. Some games are more emotional than others, and last Monday’s win over San Diego for Kansas City was a roller coaster of emotion throughout. To win it in overtime, and take a share of the division lead, and now to be going up against a pitiful winless team? I think the Chiefs come out totally flat and the Dolphins finally earn their first win of the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

Atlanta (-6.5) @ Indianapolis (+6.5)
This one is a bit more of a stretch, but I’m going to take Indy to get their first win of the season this week as well. They’ve played each of their last three games on the road, and now they get three at home; Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Carolina. I think they look at this batch of games and know that this is their chance. Because Atlanta is the toughest of the three, it may also be Indianapolis’s most pressure-free game; this is a must win for Atlanta to hang in the NFC South while Indy has nothing to lose. Indianapolis has looked better at home, Atlanta has looked shaky on the road, and I also love that 85% of betting action is on Atlanta but the line has moved AGAINST Indianapolis. Smart money seems to be on the Colts this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Indianapolis

Tampa Bay (+8.5) @ New Orleans (-8.5)
After losing to St. Louis big last week and having the loss to Tampa Bay in mind from a few weeks ago, this looked like a big philosophy revenge spot for New Orleans. And while it may end up being a big win for them, I feel like the spread has already factored all of that in, because there’s no way Tampa Bay should be such a big underdog here. And unlike Atlanta and Kansas City, Tampa Bay isn’t on a winning streak; they, like New Orleans, are looking to get back on track too. I do think New Orleans will win, but these two teams always play close, and I think they will again this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

NY Jets (+2.5) @ Buffalo (-2.5)
Season-defining game for both teams here; the Jets can’t afford to lose this one if they want to stay in the thick of the playoff race. Buffalo is clearly legitimate, and a win here would make them a serious contender for a playoff spot. Coming off of the bye week, I love the Jets. They have the defense to contain Buffalo’s passing attack, and while Buffalo is coming off of a shutout, their defense is quite bad; New York’s offense has been shaky this season, but against this defense and with a week of preparation, they should be okay. New York should step up and win this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Jets

Seattle (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Last time Dallas had a frustrating road loss, they came home and beat St. Louis 34-7, setting the precedent for this large spread. But that’s the only win by more than a field goal that the 3-4 Cowboys have this year. Seattle is a lousy team, but I think they can keep this one within 10 points against a frustrated Cowboys team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Cleveland (+10.5) @ Houston (-10.5)
I don’t love giving up this many points on a Houston team that doesn’t have Andre Johnson, but Cleveland is just awful. No one has stepped up to fill Peyton Hillis’s spot in the running game, and while Colt McCoy is a solid young quarterback, he can’t do it all on his own. Cleveland will struggle to get to 13, and Houston can certainly get to 24 at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

San Francisco (-4.0) @ Washington (+4.0)
My favorite game of the week. San Francisco is 6-0-1 against the spread, and have given bettors no reason not to trust them all season long. Washington has lost three straight both straight up and ATS, and after losing two of their top players to injury last week on offense, they get shutout by an awful Buffalo defense. And somehow, Washington is only a 4-point underdog in this spot?!? And with 85% of bettors betting on San Francisco, the line goes from -4.5 to -4.0?!? This is as obvious of a “Vegas wants you on the obvious side” pick as they come, in my opinion. I have no clue how San Fran doesn’t win this one by a touchdown, but if Vegas does, I’ll trust their judgement.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Cincinnati is the real deal. I’m still not sure if they’re a playoff team as their toughest games are still ahead, but they can beat these middle of the pack teams. The defense should have no trouble keeping Chris Johnson’s nightmare season going, and they can do enough on offense to improve to a fairly shocking 6-2 record.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

Denver (+7.0) @ Oakland (-7.0)
My first impulse was “hahaha, Tebow, hahaha” and then to take the Raiders. But as excited as I am to see what Carson Palmer can do coming off of the bye week, and I do think he’ll be much better than what we saw against Kansas City, it’s naive to think that all of a sudden he’ll just be an elite quarterback again. And with Darren McFadden out, there’s no safety net. Furthermore, you know Denver will be bringing their best after being humiliated all week in the media and losing to Oakland at home in the season opener. Oakland should get the W, but I expect a dogfight right down to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

NY Giants (+9.0) @ New England (-9.0)
I hate giving up nine points to a solid 5-2 team, but this is a tough spot for New York. Not only are they facing a New England team that will be fired up and upset coming off of a loss, but they are devastated by injuries with Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks both out. Without their starting running back or best deep threat, New York doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Patriots. I expect a close game early, but for New England to pull away late.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

St. Louis (+2.5) @ Arizona (-2.5)
St. Louis essentially won their Super Bowl last week with the amazing upset win over New Orleans. With Kevin Kolb out, they’ve got a great shot at stringing together two straight wins, but I don’t think they do. This is one of my least favorite games on the board this week as when two bad teams meet anything can happen, but Arizona is in dire need of a win and I think at home against the lowly Rams they can rise to the occasion and eek out a victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Green Bay (-5.5) @ San Diego (+5.5)
This one’s tough because San Diego has now lost two straight including a heart-breaker Monday night, and at home they could treat this game against undefeated Green Bay as a huge statement game. But while I could see it happening, I just can’t pick against Green Bay here. San Diego has shown me nothing this season to lead me to believe they can beat an elite team, and coming off of a bye week against one of the toughest remaining teams on their schedule doesn’t look like a letdown spot for the Packers. If both teams play their best, Green Bay should win by six or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Normally a regular season loss wouldn’t qualify as a “big revenge spot”, but with as ugly as the season opener was, I think it does. Pittsburgh had seven turnovers against their hated rivals in the 35-7 loss, a shockingly one-sided affair in a series that is almost always a close game. I’m sure that Pittsburgh hasn’t forgotten, and I’m sure they’ve been waiting for this opportunity to get their revenge. With a pumped up crowd behind them, Pittsburgh should get the win; we’ll see if it’s by enough to cover, but I think it will be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Chicago (+8.0) @ Philadelphia (-8.0)
Philadelphia looked every bit as good as advertised in the preseason in that huge win over Dallas last week, but that was the first time all season that that has been the case. Perhaps they have put their slow start behind them and are ready to start winning big every week, but I’m not ready to make them an 8-point favorite over a solid team like Chicago just yet. They should win at home Monday night, but I think it’ll be a win of the three or four point variety.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 17 – 22 – 1 (.436)

1. Washington +4.0
2. Miami +4.0
3. Indianapolis +6.5
4. Pittsburgh -3.0
5. NY Jets +2.5

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 38 – 30 – 1 (.559)

Week 10 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-10/

SMU -26.0 (LOSS)
Oregon State +21.0 (LOSS)
UL Lafayette -5.0 (LOSS)
Kansas/Iowa State Over 61 (LOSS)
TCU/Wyoming Under 57.5 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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