Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I guess pigs can fly after all!

I finished over .500 ATS on the season! It was only by two games, hardly anything worth taking a full-page ad out in the newspaper for, but for me, that’s a pretty joyous occasion.

I hope you all had a great, happy, safe New Years Eve and New Years Day. 2012 won’t really sink in for me until January 11, when I turn 26.

26? Entering the back-nine of my twenties? Yikes. It seems like only yesterday that I was a young 18 year old lad starting up the Dime back when AOL was still relevant and Facebook was brand new. Twitter didn’t even exist yet…

Then again, if it were only yesterday, I would have been a lot more of a cynical bastard than I was back then. I had my whole 20’s ahead of me back then!

But I’m going to assume the vast majority of you don’t want to hear about how “old” 26 is. So why don’t I just start picking some playoff games?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 5 – 2 (.643)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season (Final)
With the spread: 124 – 122 – 10 (.504)
Without the spread: 160 – 96 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 22 – 22 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Carolina (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
San Francisco (-10.5) @ St. Louis (+10.5)
Detroit (-6.0) @ Green Bay (+6.0)
Washington (+8.5) @ Philadelphia (-8.5)
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
Kansas City (+2.0) @ Denver (-2.0)
Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati (+2.5)
Pittsburgh (-7.0) @ Cleveland (+7.0)
San Diego (+3.0) @ Oakland (-3.0)
Tennessee (-1.0) @ Houston (+1.0) TIE
Seattle (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0) TIE

THE BAD

Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
Chicago (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
NY Jets (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Atlanta (-10.0)
Dallas (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SATURDAY

#6 Cincinnati (+4.0) @ #3 Houston (-4.0)
Two rookie quarterbacks, two great defenses… should be a defensive struggle just like it was the last time these two teams played. Despite their ugly recent form, I have to give the Texans the ever-so-slight edge at home. This will be the Texans’ first ever playoff game, and this crowd should be electric; and Arian Foster is capable of carrying this team to a win at home. Could easily go either way, and am stunned to see Cincinnati getting so many points; can’t pass on those despite my pick against the Bengals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
OVER/UNDER 38: Under (20-17 Houston)

#6 Detroit (+10.5) @ #3 New Orleans (-10.5)
Usually in a game like this I’d break down different elements and talk about how Detroit shouldn’t be a double-digit underdog to anyone, but honestly, I’m struck with awe over this New Orleans team. 8-0 straight up and against the spread in its last eight games AND in all eight of its home games this year? 40+ points in three straight games? AND added motivation of last year’s early exit from the playoffs? What’s not to love about the Saints here? If Detroit makes me pay, so be it; I don’t see any way that I can pick against New Orleans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
OVER/UNDER 59: Over (38-24 New Orleans)

SUNDAY

#5 Atlanta (+3.0) @ #4 NY Giants (-3.0)
This one I’ve gone back and forth on numerous times; in fact, when I recorded my podcast, I took the Falcons due to the potential for a big day running the football and the revenge factor from last year’s ugly playoff performance. But two factors have me leaning New York’s way; 1. They are already in playoff form. They had the must win game against the Jets and then the play-in game against Dallas; Atlanta meanwhile has beaten three soft teams and been destroyed by New Orleans, coasting into a Wild Card spot. 2. Home field advantage. Since the Jets game wasn’t really a road game, the Giants have been at home for a month now; no travel, sleeping in their own beds, practicing in their own facilities, while Atlanta has to travel up to chilly New Jersey. Therefore, as I send this out, I’m going with the Giants… but I may feel differently in an hour or two.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants
OVER/UNDER 48: Over (27-24 New York)

#5 Pittsburgh (-9.0) @ #4 Denver (+9.0)
Call me crazy, but I love the Broncos to cover the spread here. Pittsburgh has scored 14 points or less in four of its last six games, Ben Roethlisberger is nowhere close to 100%, and Denver’s defense (save the two-game blowup against New England and Buffalo) is quite good. As for the Broncos, they’ve been very bad; but would it really surprise anyone if this goofy Tim Tebow story had one more crazy chapter in it? I genuinely love the +9, I don’t actually “love” the Broncos as an outright upset… but I’m in the mood to make a bold prediction here. I’ll say the Pittsburgh Steelers get Tebow’d.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver
OVER/UNDER 33.5: Under (16-13 OT Denver)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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