Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Thursday I sent out my pick for the Indianapolis at Jacksonville game and explained that while my math model and all logic said that the game would be a 27-10 Colts victory, I had to go with the Jaguars because it was so clear that it was a trap and that Vegas linemakers know better than I do.

Not only did the Colts stomp the Jaguars, they did so by the exact score of 27-10.

Which leads me to ask… DO Vegas linemakers really know better than I do this year?

I know they used to, because I used to be on their side burying the suckers who thought that sportsbooks were handing out free money. But nowadays, it seems, sportsbooks ARE handing out free money, and I’m the sucker for not taking it.

My Philosophy Picks, comprised mostly of trap spreads, are 8-11 (42.1%) against the spread this year including Thursday’s loss. My overall ATS record without philosophy picks is 65-45 (59.1%) and my money picks ATS record without them is 13-8-2 (61.9%).

Alas, I’m not quitting picking against traps anytime soon. The logic is sound, and the track record backs it up.

But man oh man, I’m getting really sick and tired of losing by 14+ on teams that are clearly bums receiving only three points because bookmakers see something that I don’t.

Get your eyes checked, fellas! For my sake and for yours!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 7 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 73 – 55 – 4 (.570)
Without the spread: 92 – 40 – 0 (.697)
^Philosophy Picks^: 8 – 10 – 0 (.444)
$Money Picks$: 21 – 18 – 2 (.538)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Kansas City (-7.5) @ San Diego (+7.5)
Miami (-1.0) @ Indianapolis (+1.0) $UNDER 43.5
Carolina (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
Detroit (-5.0) @ Jacksonville (+5.0)
Buffalo (+10.0) @ Houston (-10.0)
Minnesota (+4.0) @ Seattle (-4.0)
Tampa Bay (+1.0) @ Oakland (-1.0) $OVER 47
Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ NY Giants (-3.5)
Dallas (+3.5) @ Atlanta (-3.5)

THE BAD

Denver (-3.5) @ $^Cincinnati (+3.5)
Baltimore (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0)
Arizona (+10.0) @ Green Bay (-10.0)
Chicago (-3.5) @ $^Tennessee (+3.5)
Miami (-1.0) @ Indianapolis (+1.0)
Tampa Bay (+1.0) @ Oakland (-1.0)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Admittedly, Philosophy Picks aren’t going all that well this year, and have been hovering around .500 recently after hovering closer to .600 in the past. Why, I’m not sure. But I still strongly stand by the belief that sportsbooks do not give away free money intentionally. Prime-time games need to be paid special attention to for the books as they receive a lot more betting action than single games on a spread out slate of Sunday mornings and afternoons do. With this in mind, Jacksonville is only a three point underdog tonight. The Jags don’t have Maurice Jones-Drew and are 0-4 straight up and against the spread at home this season with four home losses of 17 or more points. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is not only flying high on the football field with three straight wins (SU and ATS), but has become a national sensation with the inspirational backing of their coach, Chuck Pagano, who is battling Leukemia. Not only are the Colts the substantially better team this year and coming into this game in top form, they are a team that virtually everyone is supporting, too. How in the world are they only a 3-point favorite? My model has this one at Indianapolis 27 – Jacksonville 10… doesn’t that look like what just about everyone is expecting tonight? Maybe sportsbooks really have just lost their minds and have decided that in this tough economy they should give players the chance to make some free money on super obvious bets like Indy -3. Maybe I’m the crazy one. But I guess I’m banking on Andrew Luck’s road struggles to continue and going with the Jaguars in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville

SUNDAY

NY Giants (-4.0) @ Cincinnati (+4.0)
Last year, the Giants started the season off 6-2 before losing four straight to fall to 6-6 and let the rest of the NFC East get back into the division race down the stretch. This year, the Giants started off 6-2 before losing to the Steelers last Sunday. The loss should serve as a wake-up call to not repeat the same mistake again, and if Eli Manning can snap out of his mini-slump the Giants should be able to top the Bengals by about the same score Denver did last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Tennessee (+6.0) @ Miami (-6.0)
I’m high on the Dolphins, and last week’s incredible effort by Andrew Luck doesn’t change that. It was a close game that came down to a few big plays, and Luck made them at home. Tannehill has done a great job not turning the ball over lately, and Jake Locker’s return is actually good for the Dolphins as the Titans offense was running a bit smoother under Matt Hasselbeck. You never know when Tennessee is going to magically put a solid game together, but the Titans are so bad defensively that the Dolphins should be able to get to 30 at home which should be more than enough to cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Detroit (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)
Two teams going in completely different directions. Detroit has won three of its last four games and is rounding into form on both sides of the ball while Minnesota has lost three of its last four games (all by double-digits) and has looked very bad on defense and one-dimensional on offense. I expect more of the same this week, and considering my model has this one at Detroit 37 – Minnesota 17, I’m feeling pretty confident giving up only three points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Buffalo (+13.0) @ New England (-13.0)
Doesn’t matter what I pick in New England games, I’m always wrong. They should easily crush the Jets? Nah, overtime. They should struggle against St. Louis’s strong passing defense? Nah, 45-7 win. I’m 1-7 ATS on games involving this team this year, and I don’t think I’m the only one that has no clue what to expect from them. But hey, the one time I was right this season on the Patriots was picking them against the Bills, who they’ve dominated for a decade or so now. So maybe lightning will strike twice for me this Sunday despite the huge number I need to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Atlanta (-1.0) @ New Orleans (+1.0)
Getting an undefeated team with a strong offense going up against one of the league’s worst defenses at only -1 might sound like a trap, but it isn’t. The Saints have picked up some steam and public respect after their blowout win of Philadelphia Monday night, and they’ve had the Falcons’ number for years. Personally, I think Monday night’s win had more to do with Philadelphia imploding than New Orleans solving anything on defense. I think this game will be a shootout and will likely be close, but I trust Atlanta to make a key stop or to force a key turnover at some points, and I can’t say the same for the Saints.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

San Diego (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
Consider me sold on this Tampa Bay team. Doug Martin appears to be the real deal, the passing game is wide open with him keeping defense honest and the Bucs are averaging a staggering 36 points per game over their last four games. No idea how the total isn’t set in the 50s as the “Over 47” looks like a gift once again this week as it was in last week’s Tampa Bay Oakland game. I expect another shootout here, and expect the Bucs to have more ammo in the tank than the Chargers in a 38-28 type of victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
OVER/UNDER 47: $OVER 47

Denver (-4.0) @ Carolina (+4.0)
The Broncos have also been extremely impressive on offense of late averaging 33 points per game, and Peyton Manning is remarkably having one of the best seasons of his career in Denver. On paper, this looks like another easy one for the Broncos. But the Panthers defense has played extremely well of late, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the Broncos were looking ahead to next week’s game against the Chargers as a chance to essentially lock up the AFC West. I can’t pick against the Broncos outright as I don’t think Carolina’s offense can put this one out of reach and Manning isn’t one to lose games in reach. But I do believe the Panthers lose this one by four or less.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Oakland (+9.0) @ Baltimore (-9.0)
It isn’t often that my model is going to predict a 9-point underdog to win outright, but indeed, the Ravens have been that mediocre of late and the Raiders have been that competitive; 28-21 Raiders. Now, that’s just based on a few quick plug-ins and applications, I don’t actually think the Raiders should be a 7-point favorite in Baltimore. But I will say that the Raiders have been consistently good for 24+ points of late, and Baltimore’s defense isn’t the shutdown squad we’re used to. Could the Ravens put up 35+ behind a huge day from Ray Rice? Of course. But I actually expect this one to stay close and for the Raiders to get the cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

NY Jets (+6.0) @ Seattle (-6.0)
The only reason I don’t make this a money pick is due to the fact that the Jets are coming out of a bye week, which could mean they’ve got some solid preperation or tricks up their sleeves. But really, this matchup doesn’t look good for the Jets. They are a bad road team going into the building of one of the league’s best home teams. They have a mediocre offense going up against a very strong defense. And they have a terrible rushing defense going against Marshawn Lynch, one of the league’s most consistent backs. Six points is a lot, but I can’t come up with a good argument for taking the Jets, while the Seahawks I have plenty for.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Dallas (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
Two under-achieving teams that always seem to go out of their way to lose; which will succeed this week? For some reason, my gut tells me Philadelphia finds a way to pull out a win. Maybe I’m just being stubborn after this team has proven how terrible it is time and time again, and Dallas certainly passes the eye test better. But I gravitate towards the Eagles here, so Eagles it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia

St. Louis (+12.5) @ San Francisco (-12.5)
I don’t like giving up 12.5 points here in what I anticipate might be a very good defensive game. But remarkably, in four of San Francisco’s last five games the 49ers have held their opponent to six points or less including two three-point games and a shutout! Now they’ve had a bye week to prepare for a modest offense. The Rams have also been substantially worse on the road than they have been at home. I can’t find more than seven to 10 points for the Rams, and think San Francisco can get to 24 at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Houston (+1.0) @ Chicago (-1.0)
It is actually pretty remarkable how nearly identical these two teams have been statistically through the first eight games of the season. Both 7-1, both near the top of the league in offenese and defense, this could very well be a Super Bowl preview. I could honestly flip a coin here and feel fine with either side. Forced to make a decision, I chose Houston simply because I like the Texans’ offense better and believe that in what should be a very close game it could end up being the difference. But couldn’t you say the same about Chicago’s big play defense? Take your pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

MONDAY

Kansas City (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh (-11.5)
Perhaps there is a philosophy pick to be found in here somewhere, but I’m not finding it. Pittsburgh has been dominant at home for years and is 3-0 both SU and ATS over its last three games. Kansas City hasn’t held a single lead this season and has lost six of its eight games by double digits. Even if the Steelers exhale and just go through the motions in this one, that should still be enough for a two touchdown victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 32 – 33 – 0 (.492)

Week 11 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-11/

Tulsa -3.0 (WIN)
Louisiana Tech -20.0 (LOSS)
UCLA -16.0 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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