Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I sat down at my computer at around noon Saturday to start putting my picks for this week together to send out to you all in the afternoon. It is fairly commonplace for me to get work done during commercials and downtime while I’m keeping my eye on college football games on Saturday.

What I didn’t anticipate was one of the wildest college football days in years.

I didn’t expect to see a freshman quarterback topple Matt Barkley and the USC Trojans.

I didn’t expect Baylor’s defense to stymie Heisman Front-runner Colin Klein en route to a rout of No. 1 Kansas State.

Nor did I expect No. 2 Oregon, at home in one of the best college football atmospheres in the country, to be shutdown and upset by Stanford.

Some 13 hours later I’m now finally getting around to the Dime. Today was entertaining as hell for a college football fan, but not particularly productive.

Saturday may have brought the unexpected, but last Sunday didn’t. 57% against the spread on the season, it was only a matter of time before I had a crash-back-down-to-earth week. No surprise it comes on the week that I jokingly assess that “I know better than Vegas bookmakers”.

I mean go figure, nine of the 14 games last week were decided by double-digits, yet three of the five that weren’t were the double-digit favorites that I happened to have.

For all the time and effort I put into this stuff, it is all so random and impossible to predict.

Good for talking heads that get paid to blather on about the week’s hot topics and aren’t held accountable for their predictions.

Bad for idiots that thought they could “figure it out” with enough work and effort.

(I was one of those idiots. But at least I’m enlightened now.)

Enlightened to the fact that all of my efforts are for nothing, but keep on trucking along anyway.

Now that’s idiotic.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 11 – 0 (.214)
Without the spread: 7 – 6 – 1 (.538)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 76 – 66 – 4 (.535)
Without the spread: 99 – 46 – 1 (.683)
^Philosophy Picks^: 8 – 11 – 0 (.421)
$Money Picks$: 22 – 20 – 2 (.524)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

San Diego (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
San Diego (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0) $OVER 47
NY Jets (+6.0) @ Seattle (-6.0)
Houston (+1.0) @ Chicago (-1.0)

THE BAD

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ $^Jacksonville (+3.0)
NY Giants (-4.0) @ Cincinnati (+4.0)
Tennessee (+6.0) @ Miami (-6.0)
$Detroit (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)
Buffalo (+13.0) @ New England (-13.0)
Atlanta (-1.0) @ New Orleans (+1.0)
Denver (-4.0) @ Carolina (+4.0)
Oakland (+9.0) @ Baltimore (-9.0)
Dallas (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
St. Louis (+12.5) @ San Francisco (-12.5)
Kansas City (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh (-11.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Miami (+2.5) @ Buffalo (-2.5)
Having the absolute worst week of your season can sometimes serve as one of the biggest motivators in the NFL, and Miami certainly had theirs last week. It doesn’t get much worse than losing 37-3 at home when you are a 6-point favorite. Ryan Tannehill had a three-interception day after weeks of mistake free football and the defense did nothing to bail him out. I’m sure the Dolphins are thrilled to have the short week this week to not have to wait long to get another chance to go out there and earn some redemption. Fail me as they might this season, I have to stick with my “philosophy” principles, and one of them includes picking teams coming off of huge blowout losses. And this time, it isn’t going against my gut (I think Miami is the better team) or my model (27-21 Miami). Don’t let me down, Fins!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

SUNDAY

Arizona (+9.5) @ Atlanta (-9.5)
Atlanta hasn’t really been the type to blow teams out this year, and I like Arizona’s defense. But the Cardinals have been hopeless for weeks since getting off to their strong start, and Atlanta should be looking to blow off some steam after picking up their first loss of the season last week. I could go either way for this many points, but I’m thinking of a score like 27-13 Atlanta, so I guess I’ll take the Falcons.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Dallas (-7.5)
Cleveland has had a bye week to prepare for this game, but Dallas is the better team. I’m not sure how the spread is going to go, but I do feel pretty confident that this will be a low scoring game. Cleveland’s passing attack is weak enough that Dallas should be able to hone in on the run and trust its corners in coverage, while on the other side the Browns (who are solid on defense) have had an extra week to prepare for a Cowboys attack that hasn’t been all that explosive this year. By my logic that points will be at a premium, I suppose I have to take the 7.5 points here, though I do expect Dallas to win outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
OVER/UNDER 43.5: $UNDER 43.5

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
Detroit was one of the few teams I was very confident in last week and the Lions let me down. This week, the Packers seem to be a pretty clear choice. They’ve dominated the Lions over the last six years and they are on a roll and playing well on both sides of the ball. Detroit has the capability to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers and pull off the upset in this one, but I don’t think they do as I think the Packers keep on rolling with another win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
Tricky, as both teams are coming off of strong performances last week. Kansas City almost pulled off the upset in Pittsburgh while Cincinnati dominated the New York Giants. I think the Bengals are the better team, and I also think that the Chiefs might have been playing over their heads last week and I’m not quite ready to let them back into the circle of trust. So Cincinnati it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Washington (-3.5)
Washington has had a bye week to prepare for a team that has been flat out awful of late that has a rookie quarterback getting ready to make his first NFL start on the road. The Eagles have the talent to beat anyone, but that talent simply hasn’t translated to wins or solid play at all this year. Don’t love laying the 3.5 points, but the thought of being on the Eagles again is even less appetizing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Tampa Bay (-1.0) @ Carolina (+1.0)
Maybe this is a trap line, but I suck at scoping them out this year, so what do I know? What I do know is that the Buccaneers are on a roll offensively right now and are clicking on all cylinders. Until a team holds them to less than 30 points, I don’t have much of a reason to pick against them, especially against a team like Carolina that has been a bit offensively challenged this season. It’ll probably be another shootout, so I’ll take the sharp-shooting Bucs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Jacksonville (+15.0) @ Houston (-15.0)
Who knows with crap-shoots like this? I lean towards Jacksonville here simply because Houston’s offense hasn’t been putting up a ton of points lately. Maybe it will at home against the lowly Jags, but then I doubt that Houston is all that concerned about style points here. Would a score like 24-10 or 27-13 surprise anyone? It’s just a guess, but I’ll take the Jags to figure out a way to cover with this huge spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

NY Jets (+3.5) @ St. Louis (-3.5)
The New York Jets are a mess right now. They’ve been a mess on the field for a while since Revis and Holmes went down with injuries. But now, off the field, all week there’s been controversy brewing around a bunch of players anonymously blasting Tim Tebow. What? You are bashing your backup quarterback to the media? Why? Then Shonn Greene (who is terrible) is running his mouth about how they should make a change at QB. It’s a mess. St. Louis plays very well at home and is much more dangerous offensively with Danny Amendola back. The Jets are terrible on the road. This one seems pretty straightforward.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

New Orleans (-5.0) @ Oakland (+5.0)
Two weeks ago the Titans got destroyed 51-20 by the Bears, and they followed that up with a blowout 37-3 win over the Miami Dolphins. Teams don’t like being embarrased. The Raiders were blown away by the Ravens 55-20 last week and will undoubtedly be furious coming into this week. New Orleans, meanwhile, was laying it all on the line in an impressive win over the undefeated Atlanta Falcons. How much energy do they have left in the tank, especially to travel cross-country with to try to get up for a game like this one? Those are the “philosophy” reasons why the Raiders make a strong play here. On paper, I think both of these teams are terrible defensively and both can put up big points in the passing game, and this will likely be a shootout. The Saints have been on a roll, but I’m anticipating a bit of last week’s craziness to roll over into this week as the Raiders win this one outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

San Diego (+8.0) @ Denver (-8.0)
Denver has been a well-oiled machine with four straight wins and outstanding play on both sides of the ball led by Peyton Manning on offense. San Diego is in a tailspin and looks well on its way to an offseason deconstruction. But the Chargers have two very powerful motivators in this game; their season is on the line and they are looking for revenge. Revenge for a public national humiliation on Monday night when the Broncos erased a 24-point deficit to beat the Chargers 35-24 in their own stadium, and the knowledge that a loss would all but clinch the AFC West for the Broncos while a win would pull the Chargers to within one game of the division lead. Do I think the Chargers will actually win this one? No. But I think they’ll put forth a much better fight than most expect them to and cover the spread in what should be a tightly contested divisional battle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Indianapolis (+9.5) @ New England (-9.5)
Yay, another New England game! I’m now 1-8 against the spread trying to pick games involving the Patriots, and this one is once again in coin flip territory. On the one hand, the Colts have been playing great with four straight wins and Andrew Luck should have a big day against New England’s poor pass defense. On the other, this spread almost feels like a trap is this is a LOT of points to give a team coming off of four straight wins against a team that has recently played the Jets and Bills very close. Also, Indy’s four straight wins have all come against teams with losing records. I guess I’ll take the points because I feel that Luck can either shoot out with the Pats or get a backdoor cover, but now I’m sure the Patriots will roll since I picked against them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh (+3.5)
This is purely a gut pick. On paper, without Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is going to have a very tough time topping Baltimore as the Ravens have a much better offense with Big Ben out of the equation. But the Steelers were on a roll before Roethlisberger’s injury, and they know that a loss here would all but end their chances of winning the North with their next stab at the Ravens coming in Baltimore. Not sure how they get it done, but I have a feeling the Steelers will rally together and find a way to steal one from the Ravens at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Chicago (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0)
As of right now, reports indicate that Jay Cutler will be out Monday and Alex Smith will (likely) play after both left their respective games with concussions last week. This does give San Francisco the edge, but a seven-point edge? Jason Campbell is a serviceable backup, and this Bears defense is excellent. This game has all the makings of a defensive struggle, and it isn’t often you get so many points on either side of one of those. I’m expecting something in the neighborhood of 13-10 San Francisco, so I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 35 – 35 – 0 (.500)

Week 12 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-12/

Maryland +31.0 (WIN)
Rutgers/Cincinnati Under 48 (WIN)
USC/UCLA Over 65.5 (WIN)
Tennessee/Vanderbilt Over 60 (LOSS)
Stanford/Oregon Over 64.5 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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