Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

It isn’t often that I’m THRILLED with a 6-8 week against the spread.

But as I mentioned last week, I knew the Football Gods would be out to get me. And with San Diego up 24-14 in the third quarter and the lowly New York Jets waiting for me Monday night, I thought I was on my way to a 4-10 week.

Nothing says “14-1 was the biggest fluke of all time” like 4-10 the following week.

But alas, New Orleans came back, won, and covered the spread. The Jets, miraculously, covered the spread. And I was a sad (but much less sad than 4-10) 6-8.

So what’s next? Is it time for another winning week, or did I use up a season’s worth of good fortune in Week 4?

Let’s find out.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

Season
With the spread: 43 – 32 – 2 (.573)
Without the spread: 55 – 22 – 0 (.714)
^Philosophy Picks^: 7 – 6 – 0 (.538)
$Money Picks$: 13 – 9 – 1 (.591)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Green Bay (-7.0) @ Indianapolis (+7.0)
$Atlanta (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
Cleveland (+8.5) @ NY Giants (-8.5)
Seattle (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
San Diego (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
Houston (-8.0) @ $^NY Jets (+8.0)

THE BAD

Arizona (-2.5) @ St. Louis (+2.5)
Miami (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
Baltimore (-6.0) @ Kansas City (+6.0)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ $Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Chicago (-5.5) @ $^Jacksonville (+5.5)
Tennessee (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Denver (+6.5) @ New England (-6.5)
$^Buffalo (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Tennessee (+6.0)
I really hate this game. I hate that it is on a Thursday night, and now even worse, I hate that it gets its own email. What do you do with this one? Pittsburgh has shown no ability to cover the spread, doing so only once in a blowout win at home over the Jets. Tennessee has shown no ability to keep games close, except for the one random win over Detroit at home. Emotionally, both teams should be invested here on prime time and in need of wins. Both teams are also “due” for big performances, I think. I’ve been staring at this game all week, and I think logically I can’t ignore the fact that Tennessee has given up 30+ points in five straight weeks, but emotionally I have this strange feeling that Tennessee covers. Trust my brain or my gut? I’ll go with Tennessee to cover, and will apologize for wasting your time with this useless, un-insightful, rambling pick. I’ve got nothing. I’m just shooting in the dark.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

SUNDAY

Oakland (+9.5) @ Atlanta (-9.5)
On paper, there isn’t much stopping Atlanta’s passing attack from putting up 40+ on this battered-up secondary. But with that said, there are a lot of factors that make me lean towards Oakland here. The Raiders have had the bye week to prepare for Atlanta, and defensively that should mean drawing up a lot of pressure, which almost led to Carolina upsetting the Falcons a few weeks ago. Offensively, the Raiders should give Atlanta a heavy dose of Darren McFadden as Atlanta has one of the weakest rushing defenses in the league. Lastly, over the course of the season, when the Falcons have jumped out to an early lead, they’ve pulled back and focused on running out clock. Atlanta isn’t losing this game, but it might be closer than most anticipate.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Cleveland (+2.5)
Cincinnati is undoubtedly the better team. But over the course of Cleveland’s current 11-game losing streak, the Browns have lost seven games by a touchdown or less and are 7-3-1 against the spread. Eventually a team playing games this close has to catch a break or two and win, doesn’t it? With the return of Joe Haden to lockup A.J. Green and home field advantage against a hated in-state rival, I say that this is the week that the Browns put it all together and pick up the upset win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

St. Louis (+4.5) @ Miami (-4.5)
This spread baffles me. I think Miami has an outstanding defense, and in all honesty should be 4-1 if not for bad bounces and turnovers against Arizona and New York. But St. Louis has also been very impressive on defense this year, most notably in its ability to get pressure on the quarterback as we saw last week when the Rams handed the Cardinals their first loss of the season. In what should be a very low scoring game, look for Tannehill to make a few more of the mistakes that have plagued him all year to give the Rams the upset. And even if I’m wrong, 4.5 points? Way too many in this defensive showdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Indianapolis (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)
I tend to like teams that lost at home the week before that are back at home this week. What about a team that is playing its third straight game at home coming off of two losses, one on national TV on Monday night? Going up against a team coming off of an emotionally draining come-from-behind win with a rookie quarterback going on the road for just the second time of his career? I know the Jets are bad, but this is a spot that they have to come away with a win in, and I think they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Detroit (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5)
I predicted that Detroit would take a step back this year, and so far the Lions have. But two things to consider; one, four of Philadelphia’s five games have been decided by two points or less. Two, Detroit is coming off of a bye week, and has the defensive line to execute a gameplan that keeps Philadelphia’s turnover woes going. Also, as much as I love Nnamdi Asomugha, the Eagles don’t have an answer for Calvin Johnson. In what I’m sure will be another super-close game, I like the Lions to upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Kansas City (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay (-4.0)
I had circled Tampa Bay and was writing out how the Bucs were coming off of a bye and how the Chiefs are so bad we should give four points to them. But when trying to break it down logically, I couldn’t. The reality is, Tampa Bay has the worst passing defense in the league, and it just got even worse with the suspension of Aqib Talib. Kansas City’s defense has been pretty solid, but turnovers have plagued the team. With Brady Quinn taking over, the mantra will be DON’T TURN IT OVER, and with a solid running game and a soft secondary, Quinn would love to make the most of his starting shot with a clean game. Tampa Bay is 1-13 over its last 14 games. Why on earth should I trust the Bucs as a 4-point favorite?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Dallas (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)
This one should be a great game, especially on the defensive side of the ball. It is made trickier by the fact that the Cowboys are coming off of a bye week, one that they went into after an embarassing loss that they’ve had extra time to stew over. Will they bounce back strong this week, or will the lack of confidence on offense that they went into the break with follow them out of it? Baltimore hasn’t been the sharpest team in the league over the last two games, especially in last week’s dud against Kansas City, but I expect the Ravens to rise to the occasion against a more talented opponent. This team is excellent at home, and while I’d strongly consider Dallas at +4.5 or more, at three I’ll take the Ravens.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

New England (-3.5) @ Seattle (+3.5)
It is well-documented by this point how great Seattle is at home, especially as an underdog. But what some may not be aware of is how strong New England is on the road; the Patriots are 14-4 straight up and 14-3-1 against the spread in their last 18 road games. So putting the effect of home/road aside and putting this game in a vacuum, who do you like? New England’s rushing defense has been excellent, which should limit what Seattle loves to do in giving Marshawn Lynch a heavy workload. And even if Seattle’s defense does play well, is it really going to hold New England to less than 21 or 24? If New England were undefeated, I’d consider this a trap spot, but off to a modest 3-2 record, focus won’t be an issue. The Patriots should win this one by a touchdown or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Buffalo (+4.0) @ Arizona (-4.0)
Arizona’s loss to St. Louis doesn’t change how strong this team is on defense. Buffalo is not only a terrible road team, but a terrible defensive team as well. This is a good matchup for the Cardinals; they should be able to force some turnovers on defense and do enough on offense to bounce back from their first loss of the season last week with a comfortable win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

NY Giants (+6.5) @ San Francisco (-6.5)
All week I’ve loved the 49ers in this game. Not only have they looked damn-near unstoppable virtually all year, but this is a huge revenge spot as well as San Francisco lost the NFC Championship game to the Giants in San Francisco last season. But as the week has gone on, it has become pretty clear that EVERYONE loves the 49ers in this game, and they are all the way up to -6.5. New York has a habit of showing up for big games, so as much as I feel like San Francisco will win by double digits, from a mathematical perspective I’d feel a lot better not having to cover such a big spread against the defending champion. Sticking with my gut that San Francisco rolls here, but can’t call it a “money pick” at this line.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Minnesota (+1.5) @ Washington (-1.5)
It has been a “will he/won’t he” in regards to whether Robert Griffin III would play this week all week. Throughout the week, I’ve had the mindset that he’s play, and that I’d still like the Vikings. Minnesota has been one of 2012’s biggest surprises, and with an outstanding defense (especially against the rush), I like the Vikings’ chances to contain RGIII. Washington’s defense has been better over the last few weeks than it was to start the season, but it is still suspect, and Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin should both have nice days. Oh, and Washington’s home field advantage isn’t too scary these days with eight straight home losses. I think Minnesota makes it nine.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Green Bay (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5)
To this point in the season, very few teams have looked as good as the undefeated Houston Texans. The Green Bay Packers meanwhile have been a major disappointment, especially on offense. With that said, I like Green Bay a lot this Sunday. From a motivational perspective, the Packers need this game much more; they have fallen far behind Chicago and Minnesota in the NFC North, and can’t keep losing if they want to keep pace in the wild NFC playoff race. Houston has already essentially locked up the AFC South and is the only undefeated team in the conference. There are also two concerns on the Texans’ side. One, Brian Cushing’s injury will be a huge blow to the defense. Two, who have they played? The win against Denver was nice, but otherwise, it’s been all fairly soft opponents (MIA at home, JAX, TEN, NYJ). That isn’t Houston’s fault, but the fact that the Texans haven’t been battle-tested to this point could hurt them. Try as I might, I can’t see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers losing this game in prime time, especially after last week’s embarrassing loss to Indianapolis and the Monday Night Football debacle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

MONDAY

Denver @ San Diego (Pick’em)
I give up. I have no idea what to think of these two “titans of the AFC West”. I feel like Denver is the better team, and has simply had to deal with a much more brutal schedule than the Chargers have. But the Broncos have done most of their damage in the second halves of games that were already out of reach, so the fact that they’ve “kept it close” against great teams doesn’t hold as much weight as I’ve tried giving them credit for. I came into the year thinking San Diego was weak, and until they beat a team over .500, I will continue to do so. So, Broncos it is, I guess.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 20 – 23 – 0 (.465)

Week 7 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-7/

Northwestern -3.5 (WIN)
West Virginia -4.0 (LOSS)
Alabama -21.0 (WIN)
Baylor -7.0 (LOSS)
Washington +13.0 (WIN)
Texas A&M/Louisiana Tech Under 80.5 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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