Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Last week pretty much sums up my NFL handicapping career.

On games that I was willing to call “Money Picks” because I was very confident in the side I was on, I went 0-4-1.

On all of the other non-Money Picks, I went 5-2-1.

In other words, I have no frigging clue what I’m doing. Or more specifically, I have no frigging clue what football wants from me.

College picks have been even funnier this year. In eight weeks I’ve had just ONE winning week with my top picks while the leans that end up as last cuts not making the video have hit around 65%. One week I even gave them at the end of the video, and that week my actual picks went 3-4 while those skipped over leans went 3-0.

It’s a rat race. I run around the maze looking for the occasional piece of cheese and pat myself on the back when I find it.

Occasionally I take a wrong turn instead, getting an electric shock instead of the cheese I was hoping for.

And you all get to read, point and laugh as I run around this endless maze for your amusement.

Depressing or hilarious? Depends on how twisted your sense of humor is, I suppose.

But alas, I love the Dime. I have major plans in 2013 to shift my focus away from sports journalism and towards other ventures, and will be quitting just about all of my extra-curricular sports stuff. But the Dime, like a drug addiction or a bad relationship, I just don’t think I can quit.

(P.S. I’ve never actually had a drug addiction, and I’m in a wonderful relationship. Considering my parents and girlfriend are among the eight of you that actually read this thing, that’s probably a good thing to clear up. To the other five of you, sorry to disappoint. I know you must of had me pegged as super hardcore and this news shatters your ultra-cool image of me.)

Okay, enough rambling. I’ve got a 7-7 week to get to!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 6 – 2 (.455)
Without the spread: 10 – 3 – 0 (.769)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 4 – 1 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 56 – 44 – 4 (.560)
Without the spread: 72 – 32 – 0 (.692)
^Philosophy Picks^: 7 – 8 – 0 (.467)
$Money Picks$: 17 – 14 – 2 (.548)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tennessee @ Buffalo $OVER 46
Dallas (-2.0) @ Carolina (+2.0)
Cleveland (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
Arizona (+6.0) @ Minnesota (-6.0)
Arizona @ Minnesota $UNDER 40
Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Oakland (-4.0)
Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Cincinnati (+1.5)
Seattle (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0) TIE
Detroit (+6.0) @ $Chicago (-6.0) TIE

THE BAD

Tennessee (+3.0) @ Buffalo (-3.0)
Washington (+5.5) @ $NY Giants (-5.5)
New Orleans (-2.5) @ $^Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Baltimore (+6.5) @ Houston (-6.5)
Green Bay (-5.0) @ $^St. Louis (+5.0)
NY Jets (+10.5) @ $New England (-10.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

Taking the points in just about every game this week. Fight on, underdogs!

THURSDAY

Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Thursday snuck up on me this week, and the game had kicked off before I remembered to send out the email. For continuity’s sake, I tweeted out my pick here (http://twitter.com/DavesDime/status/261632531525414912), which was Tampa Bay with the points but Minnesota straight up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota (LOSS)

SUNDAY

Carolina (+7.0) @ Chicago (-7.0)
The Bears showed the problem with taking them minus a decent amount of points last week when they competely dominated the Lions all game long only to give up a late touchdown to fail to cover the spread. With that said, the Bears’ defense has been nearly perfect this season, and Carolina’s offense has been awful; would anyone be surprised if Chicago shut Carolina out? This will probably be a boring 17-6 type of game, but I can’t find a case to be made for Carolina at all in this spot. The Panthers have lost three straight games by five points or less though, so maybe they’ll find some stupid way to cover the spread in a loss. I’ll take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

San Diego (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
Alright, it’s true that San Diego got humiliated on Monday Night Football, but that was against Peyton Manning. The Chargers have had a bye week to prepare for a Cleveland team that has only won one game in its last 13. San Diego has proven it can beat bad teams big this year (See Oakland, Kansas City and Tennessee) and we’re starting to get into that point of the season where the Chargers get hot. So my question would be how the heck did they open as only a 2.5-point favorite and how has the spread stayed pretty stagnant despite roughly 75% of betting action coming down on the Chargers? Maybe I’m overthinking this, but everyone and their mother seems to love the Chargers this week, and you know how much I love going against the grain.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland

Seattle (+2.5) @ Detroit (-2.5)
My model projects this game out to about 14-14. I actually agree; Detroit’s defense has been picking up some momentum, and Seattle’s has been strong all year. I have trouble seeing either team get past 17 points, and think whoever wins it does so by a score like 14-13 or 17-14. I’ll take the Seahawks to upset, but the real play is on the UNDER in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle
OVER/UNDER 43: $UNDER 43

New England (-7.0) vs St. Louis (+7.0)
Off to London go New England and St. Louis. The Patriots have had their share of trouble against NFC West teams this year in losses to Seattle and Arizona, and the tie between those two teams are great defenses with strong defensive lines. St. Louis has that, and with Sam Bradford they also have the NFC West’s most talented quarterback, which should come in handy against a New England secondary that has suddenly been completely exposed over the last few weeks. I think this will be a close game, so I’ll take the touchdown spread on the Rams; though I wish this game were in St. Louis instead of across the globe.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Miami (+2.5) @ NY Jets (-2.5)
Quite simply, the Miami Dolphins are the better team in this matchup. They’ve also had a bye week to prepare for a pretty pedestrian Jets offense. The Jets have been the beneficiaries of a terrible rush defense (Indianapolis) and pass defense (New England) over the last two weeks, but Miami is solid in all facets on defense. The Dolphins should have won the last time these two teams met, and I think this time around they close the deal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Atlanta (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
I was on Philadelphia all week, especially with that well-documented 13-0 record Andy Reid has coming off of the bye in his head coaching career. Atlanta looks vulnerable too, and has had a pretty soft schedule to this point in the season. But with all of that in mind, what has Philadelphia done this year to warrant being a favorite in this spot? The Eagles turn the ball over way too much and have major defensive lapses routinely. They fired their defensive coordinator over the bye week; will everything be fixed and ready to stop this potent Falcons attack? The Falcons have had a bye week too, so they’ll be fresh and focused coming into this game. I’d actually love to see Philly put a complete game together and beat a team big, but until they do, I’m not respecting them as a favorite based on “potential” anymore.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Washington (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
This one is right on the borderline for me. Washington plays teams tough, RGIII is a special player, and the defense is coming around. But Pittsburgh plays at another level at home, and has the offensive firepower to exploit this Redskins defense. I like the Steelers to win but am 50/50 on the spread… this isn’t the Pittsburgh defense we are used to seeing. But in Pittsburgh, I guess I’ll trust Big Ben to get me the points I need for a cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Jacksonville (+14.5) @ Green Bay (-14.5)
Green Bay appears to be back in form, and that’s a scary notion for the rest of the league. But even teams in good form take the occasional breather, and after two tough road wins (that they made look easy) against Houston and St. Louis, Green Bay returns home to play a Jaguars teams sans Maurice Jones-Drew. Do wins get much easier? Blaine Gabbert has been cleared to play, and I just have this gut feeling that the Packers take their foot off the gas and win this one by a score of something like 28-17, giving Jacksonville a cover as such a huge underdog.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Indianapolis (+3.5) @ Tennessee (-3.5)
Andrew Luck has to win on the road eventually, and he won’t find a much better spot than against the NFL’s worst defense. Sure, this could be the game that Chris Johnson finds his legs against this hideously bad Colts rushing defense. But I’ll happily take the points in what will likely be at worst a shootout for the Colts and could potentially be a comfortable win with Tennessee’s remarkably consistent ability to give up 30+ points a game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis

Oakland (+1.0) @ Kansas City (-1.0)
I’d usually be the last one to call the Raiders a “money pick”, but I’d actually be genuinely surprised if they lost this week. Kansas City raised the white flag on its season with the switch to Brady Quinn at quarterback, and the Chiefs have looked out of sorts on both sides of the ball all season long. I’m not convinced that the Raiders defense is “fixed”, but it has been solid out of the bye and can certainly handle the Chiefs. Oakland still believes it can fight for a playoff spot with a soft schedule down the stretch, and I get the feeling the Raiders want this game more. Take into account that the Chiefs ended McFadden’s season last year and he’s due for a big game, and the Raiders being 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five games in Arrowhead, and everything in my opinion points to Oakland’s best game of the season and a comfortable win over the Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

NY Giants (-1.0) @ Dallas (+1.0)
I hate being on super-popular sides, so I’m tempted to take Dallas here. The problem is back in Week 1 when Dallas ruined New York’s banner raising cermony with an upset win over the defending champs in New York. With the way the Giants have been playing lately, giving them motivation in a game (avoiding a season sweep against the Cowboys and getting revenge for that opener) and making the spread irrelevant makes it too difficult for me to pass on them here. Dallas at, say, +3.5 or better I’d be on board for, especially with how well the defense has played this season. But +1.0 against an angry Giants team? Nah.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

New Orleans (+6.0) @ Denver (-6.0)
This looks to me like one of those unconventional trap lines where the underdog is being given too many points. New Orleans has won two straight games and appears to be back on track, though the offense was never really in question. Even when the Saints were losing, they weren’t getting blown out. Doesn’t this game just scream shootout back and forth between two of the game’s best quarterbacks? About 70% of bettors are taking the points, and I think I see what bookmakers are banking on; the fact that not only does Denver have home field, but the Broncos have also had a week off to study this porous defense and also have a good enough defense to force a few turnovers. It’ll be a shootout, but I like Denver to win by a touchdown or more. Also, it may be a sucker bet, but I love the over. With the firepower on these two teams and these two quarterbacks in the second half, can you see either team failing to get to 28? This will be a fun one to watch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
OVER/UNDER 54.5: $OVER 54.5

MONDAY

San Francisco (-7.0) @ Arizona (+7.0)
In paper, there really isn’t anything to like about Arizona here. The defense is great, but the offense has come to a complete stand-still and things aren’t likely to get any better against the 49ers shutdown defense. But even though my model is calling for a three-TD San Francisco win, I’ve got to take the Cardinals with the points. There’s just something about a 7-point underdog in a division rivalry game on Monday Night Football that I can’t pass up on. I’m thinking the Cardinals find their way into the endzone once or twice on some crazy play on defense or special teams, and scrape out a cover in another low-scoring affair.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 23 – 27 – 0 (.460)

Week 9 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-9/

USC -6.5
FSU -27.5
Michigan +2.0
Notre Dame +11.5
UCLA/Arizona State Over 57.5
Oregon State/Washington Under 48

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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