Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Ah, it’s like the good ol’ days. Sending the Dime out mere hours before kick-off, missing out on the sleep I so desperately need.

Plans of “getting ahead of schedule” and “sending the whole thing out Thursday” just cruel jokes of the past.

Eventually… eventually I’ll get ahead of schedule. Just you wait and see. Pigs can fly.

Coming off of another pretty awesome weekend last week actually. Not sure when the bottom is going to fall out on my nice little run (it’s a WHEN, not an if) but I’ll enjoy it while I can!

Remember folks, the best ways to show appreciation for the Dime are as follows; 1. Send me a nice email, 2. Write me in as your vote for President of the United States this week.

I don’t have Obama’s charisma or Romney’s economic background, but I’ll be damned if I don’t have a “go-get-’em” attitude. Or something.

Hmm, considering how often I complain about being behind schedule, I guess being president wouldn’t clear my slate up. Maybe we should just stick to nice emails.

For now.

Consolazio 2016.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
Without the spread: 12 – 2 – 0 (.857)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 2 – 1 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 66 – 48 – 4 (.579)
Without the spread: 84 – 34 – 0 (.712)
^Philosophy Picks^: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
$Money Picks$: 19 – 16 – 2 (.543)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
San Diego (-3.0) @ $^Cleveland (+3.0)
Miami (+2.5) @ NY Jets (-2.5)
Atlanta (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
Washington (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Jacksonville (+14.5) @ Green Bay (-14.5)
Indianapolis (+3.5) @ Tennessee (-3.5)
$Oakland (+1.0) @ Kansas City (-1.0)
NY Giants (-1.0) @ Dallas (+1.0)
New Orleans (+6.0) @ Denver (-6.0)

THE BAD

Carolina (+7.0) @ Chicago (-7.0)
Seattle (+2.5) @ Detroit (-2.5)
Seattle (+2.5) @ Detroit (-2.5) $UNDER 43
New England (-7.0) vs St. Louis (+7.0)
San Francisco (-7.0) @ Arizona (+7.0)
New Orleans (+6.0) @ Denver (-6.0) $OVER 54.5

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Kansas City (-7.5) @ San Diego (+7.5)
This one is tough. San Diego is bad; when you go into a bye week after losing a 24-0 lead at home and come out of that bye week with a 7-6 loss to a team that had just one win in its last 13 games, that’s pretty rough. But it doesn’t get much rougher than the Chiefs this year, who remarkably haven’t held a single lead in regulation through seven games. Worse yet for the Chiefs is that one week after distancing themselves from Matt Cassel by naming Brady Quinn the starter, they are forced to go back to Cassel with Quinn suffering a concussion, creating an awkward situation for everybody. I honestly hate giving 7.5 points away when taking the Chargers, but back at home I expect San Diego to put up its share of points. Cassel was a wreck turning the ball over multiple times in the Chiefs’ 37-20 loss to San Diego in Kansas City earlier this season, why should we expect much different here?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

SUNDAY

Denver (-3.5) @ Cincinnati (+3.5)
This one just screams trap to me… on the one hand, you do have Cincinnati at home coming off of a bye. But the Bengals are having a down year this season and the Broncos suddenly look like the team to beat in the AFC with Peyton Manning back in top form and the defense coming off of an incredible performance shutting down the New Orleans Saints in primetime. What’s not to like about the Broncos at this price? Looks “too easy” to me (and about 75-80% of bettors), so I’m going with the Bengals and hoping that the bookmakers know what they are doing in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cincinnati

Baltimore (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0)
If this game were generic “Team A” at “Team B”, I feel like “Team B” (Cleveland) would be a 1-point favorite at home. Cleveland is going in the right direction and has looked great on defense since getting Joe Haden back. Meanwhile, Baltimore entered its bye week struggling badly defensively and clearly feeling the effects of losing two of its best players (Lewis and Webb) on defense. But alas, this isn’t “Team A” and “Team B”, it is Baltimore and Cleveland, and the Ravens are 9-0 straight up and 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games against the Browns. They have also been a great team over the last decade while Cleveland has been terrible. Well, I’m not basing this pick on reputation; the Browns have been waiting a long time for a realistic shot at beating the Ravens, and they have it this week. The four points are huge in what could be a very close game, but I’ll go a step further and take the Browns outright as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Arizona (+10.0) @ Green Bay (-10.0)
Arizona is one of the best teams in the league at getting pressure on the quarterback and Green Bay is one of the worst teams in the league at defending against it. Green Bay also has no running game to speak of, which should make Arizona even more comfortable defending against the pass. I’d actually like the Cardinals to upset here if they weren’t so damn hopeless on offense; but alas, they are. Still, 10 points is plenty in what I expect to be a low-scoring, ugly game for both teams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Chicago (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5)
This is a super-duper philosophy pick, but I don’t know how to denote “super duper” with a little sign so I’ll stick with “^”. First of all, Tennessee lost as a favorite at home last week and is now an underdog at home this week, which is always a spot that I love for the emotional factor of not wanting to let the home crowd down two weeks in a row. Next, you have the fact that this line looks very trappy; why are the elite Bears such a tiny favorite against the lowly Titans? Lastly, despite the weird line and about 80% of bettors betting on Chicago, the line opened at Chicago -4.5 and has moved the other way down to Chicago -3.5. What gives? Either sportsbooks are doubling down on Tennessee or the really smart money is coming in on Tennessee. Either way, it is the side I want to be on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Tennessee

Miami (-1.0) @ Indianapolis (+1.0)
Two surprising AFC Wild Card contenders square off in this very important game Sunday. I like Miami quite a bit in this spot; I think the Dolphins’ defense is more than capible of handling Indianapolis’s fairly underwhelming offense, and Indianapolis has shown a weakness at stopping the run that I believe Miami will be able to exploit as one of the league’s better rushing teams averaging over 130 rushing yards per game. My model has this one at Miami 17 – Indianapolis 10, and that’s about the score I’m visualizing too. Not sure where the total of 43.5 comes from, but I think the game will stay under that and the Dolphins will make a few more plays on both sides of the ball to pick up the win in a close one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
OVER/UNDER 43.5: $UNDER 43.5

Carolina (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
Ah, the much-anticipated Cam Newton vs. RGIII showdown. This one should be fun to watch. While Griffin III and the Redskins are having the better season so far, Carolina has been coming so close in recent weeks against superior teams and is due for a win. I also like the Panthers’ defense much more than Washington’s. I think people being down on Newton and Washington being at home makes this spread what it is, but I think it should be closer to a pick’em and I lean towards Carolina taking it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Detroit (-5.0) @ Jacksonville (+5.0)
Detroit has put together some solid efforts in recent weeks with come-from-behind wins over Seattle and Philadelphia. I still don’t like giving up five points to take them, but through seven games this season we still haven’t seen the Lions look great once; this feels like a good week to put that complete game together against the lowly Jaguars. Jacksonville has fought hard in road losses over the last two weeks but has actually played a lot worse at home than on the road this season. I’m seeing a score of around 24-14 Detroit, so I’ll take the Lions.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Buffalo (+10.0) @ Houston (-10.0)
My model essentially broke when trying to plug in Houston’s explosive offense against Buffalo’s pitiful defense, in Houston no less. Both teams are coming off of the bye so no advantage for either team there, and with Indianapolis catching up Houston has motivation to stay focused and pick up this easy win this week. It’s possible that Buffalo may have corrected some things over the bye, but they aren’t likely to show up against the Texans, who are arguably the league’s most complete team at the moment. Houston is a spread-covering machine, so I don’t feel quite as bad laying the 10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Minnesota (+4.0) @ Seattle (-4.0)
This one is right on the borderline for me. Both teams are very similar in that they like to run the ball a lot and both have great backs in Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. The styles of these two teams suggest a close game, making the four points seem very enticing. But on the other hand, Seattle has the superior rushing defense and at home, the Seahawks elevate their game to another level. I could go either way, but Seattle’s home allure points me in that direction.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Tampa Bay (+1.0) @ Oakland (-1.0)
One thing is for sure, there should be plenty of fireworks in this one. Carson Palmer has quietly put together a very nice season for the Raiders, and going up against one of the league’s worst passing defenses, he should have a big day. On the other side, Oakland’s defense has been playing well since the bye week but Tampa Bay has been consistently putting up big points over the last few weeks and is in sync in both the running game and the passing game. At home, I like the Raiders to eek out a victory, but it’ll probably have to look like their 34-31 win over Pittsburgh did.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland
OVER/UNDER 47: $OVER 47

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ NY Giants (-3.5)
As if this game wasn’t hard enough to predict without the effects of Hurricane Sandy, it is now impossible. Will the Giants be distracted with everything going on and play poorly or will they use this game as a repreive and be motivated to give the fans something to cheer for? Will Pittsburgh’s gameday rituals being thrown out of whack with no hotel room have a negative effect? Toughest game on the board this week. Putting all of that stuff aside, my initial pick was going to be Pittsburgh +3.5 because I feel like the Steelers are starting to turn things around and the Giants should be exhausted after three straight intense games vs. San Francisco and two division rivals. So, I’ll stick with that, Steelers it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

Dallas (+3.5) @ Atlanta (-3.5)
On paper, there are plenty of reasons to like the Cowboys this week, especially considering how strong their pass defense is. If you can neutralize the pass against Atlanta, you can beat the Falcons. The problem is in the intangibles; Atlanta always seems to find a way to win, and Dallas always seems to find a way to lose. And with Matt Ryan under center, the Falcons just don’t lose at home. I wouldn’t be surprised at all with a Dallas upset or close loss of three points or less, but I get the feeling Dallas’s bad luck will continue and they’ll find a way to lose this one by around 4-6 points, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

MONDAY

Philadelphia (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
When this game was scheduled during the preseason it was supposed to be between two playoff contenders, but both teams have been duds this season. That adds an element of intrigue to this one though as neither team can afford a loss. After a very rare off-day for this New Orleans offense last week, I expect the Saints to get back on track at home. The problem is that the Saints are so abysmal on defense at stopping both the run and the pass that even Philadelphia’s mistake-prone offense should have no problem scoring into the 30’s on them. Philadelphia’s defense, with all of its issues is so much better than New Orleans’ that I have to take the Eagles here, especially with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 31 – 31 – 0 (.500)

Week 10 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-10/

Tulsa +9.0 (WIN)
Pittsburgh +17.0 (WIN)
Ole Miss +14.0 (LOSS)
LSU +8.5 (WIN)
Arizona State +4.0 (LOSS)
Akron/Kent State Over 58.5 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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