Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Maybe it’s just because I’m hopped up on 7-11 coffee. Or the fact that I haven’t had a good night’s sleep in… who knows?

Whatever it is, I’m feeling good about this week.

I’m zoned in. Only a couple of games that I’m 50/50 on… have a solid opinion on just about every game this week.

Will this actually equate to success? My guess is no.

Still, it feels good to feel smart and “on top of it”, even if only for a fleeting moment before being knocked back down to earth.

So behold, here are my glorious, brilliant, and probably ill-fated picks for Week 7!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.572)
Without the spread: 7 – 7 – 0 (.500)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 51 – 38 – 2 (.573)
Without the spread: 62 – 29 – 0 (.681)
^Philosophy Picks^: 7 – 6 – 0 (.538)
$Money Picks$: 15 – 10 – 1 (.600)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Tennessee (+6.0)
Oakland (+9.5) @ Atlanta (-9.5)
Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Cleveland (+2.5)
$St. Louis (+4.5) @ Miami (-4.5)
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)
Detroit (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5)
$Green Bay (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5)
Denver @ San Diego (Pick’em)

THE BAD

Kansas City (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay (-4.0)
Dallas (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)
$New England (-3.5) @ Seattle (+3.5)
Buffalo (+4.0) @ Arizona (-4.0)
NY Giants (+6.5) @ San Francisco (-6.5)
Minnesota (+1.5) @ Washington (-1.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Seattle (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0)
Seattle deserves more respect than it gets. Everyone thinks of Seattle as a great home team (true) and the team that screwed over Green Bay (also true), but this defense is fearsome regardless of where the game is played. Sure, San Francisco will be super cranky after last week’s blowout loss, but motivation won’t be a problem for either team in a pivotal division rivalry game in prime time. The 49ers are the better team, and at home I expect them to come away with the win. But I think it will be an ugly, gritty defensive battle that ends up along the lines of 13-10 or 17-13 as the Seahawks grind out a cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

SUNDAY

Tennessee (+3.0) @ Buffalo (-3.0)
About the only thing I feel confident about in this game is that there will be a lot of scoring. Both of these teams have terrible defenses, any my power ranking model puts this game at a final score of around 35-28 Buffalo. Tennessee has given up less than 30 points only once, and at home I think Buffalo will keep it that way. I’m thinking it will either be a shootout (likely) or a Buffalo blowout, so I have to play the percentages and take the Bills at only -3.0.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
OVER/UNDER 46: $OVER 46

Washington (+5.5) @ NY Giants (-5.5)
Simply put, this is just a bad matchup for Washington. The Redskins have the worst pass defense in the league, which is a pretty scary thing to have when heading on the road to play against Eli Manning and this lethal passing attack. The Giants have one of the most athletic defensive lines in the league that has already shown it can keep offenses with mobile quarterbacks in check (holding Philadelphia to 19 points and Carolina to seven). Considering the Giants lost both games to Washington last year and are 0-2 in division play this year, there really isn’t any reason to expect a lack of focus this week, either. It will probably be a shootout, but look for New York to make a few more stops on defense and to come away with a double-digit win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

New Orleans (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay (+2.5)
What “Joe Public” isn’t going to be on New Orleans this week? Not only did the Saints enter the bye week with a win, but they also appear to have Jonathan Vilma back on defense. A bye week to prepare for a must-win game against a team with just two wins in its last 15 games? And the Saints don’t even have to cover a full three points? This is about as big of a trap line as you’ll ever see. But looking under the hood, a Tampa Bay upset actually makes a lot of sense. The Buccaneers have been great on defense this year, allowing just 20.2 points per game against; 15 points per game if you throw out that crazy shootout against the Giants. New Orleans, on the other hand, has been hopeless defensively. This will also be the Bucs’ third straight game at home, and if you include the bye week that means four weeks of practicing in their own facilities, sleeping in their own beds, etc. Perfect spot to go against the public grain here and to take Tampa Bay.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Dallas (-2.0) @ Carolina (+2.0)
This is probably the only game on the board that I don’t have a strong lean on either way. My model doesn’t do me much good either, predicting a score of about 27-24 Carolina. In the end, I have to trust my gut that Dallas is the better team. Both teams need this win and there aren’t any noticeable motivation or letdown snags. Dallas’s three losses have come to three very strong teams in Seattle, Chicago, and Baltimore. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Carolina won, but against a mediocre opponent, I think Dallas can get back to .500 on the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Baltimore (+6.5) @ Houston (-6.5)
The big news in the NFL this week was out of Baltimore that Lardarius Webb and Ray Lewis have both likely been lost for the season due to injury. To lose both your shutdown corner and the heart and soul of your defense in one fell swoop is incredibly brutal. But with all of that in mind, I still think Baltimore covers the spread this week. This offense is more than capible of scoring with the best of them, and the return of Terrell Suggs should help offset the loss of Ray Lewis. Houston has established itself as one of the NFL’s elite, but the Texans have also been the beneficiaries of a soft schedule to start the season. I expect Houston to win, but I don’t see Baltimore rolling over and dying anytime soon.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Cleveland (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
Home field advantage isn’t always important, but when it comes to two bad rebuilding teams with rookie quarterbacks, it makes all of the difference. Indianapolis is 2-1 straight up and against the spread at home this year with upset wins over Green Bay and Minnesota, and datng back to last year Cleveland has lost 10 straight games on the road. After breaking an 11-game losing streak last week, I think Cleveland will be slightly less hungry this week, and Indianapolis coming off of a blowout loss will be looking for a big bounce-back performance. Indy’s awful run defense is frightening, but I’ll take the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Green Bay (-5.0) @ St. Louis (+5.0)
Another game that I have to fade “Joe Public” in. Green Bay is back; in prime time on Sunday night last week, the Packers crushed the then-undefeated Houston Texans 42-24 behind six Aaron Rodgers touchdown passes. Meanwhile, the Rams (without Danny Amendola) were losing to the Miami Dolphins. Of course, “Joe Public” hasn’t been paying attention to how great St. Louis’s defense has been playing. Or more specifically how great the defensive line has been, and how much tough defensive lines have been giving the Packers trouble this season. OR how well St. Louis has played at home. I do think the Packers will find a way to win, but I think it will take a late drive or a defensive stand as we’ll see an ugly game similar to the one we saw when Green Bay visited Seattle; though hopefully without the controversy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Arizona (+6.0) @ Minnesota (-6.0)
Robert Griffin III solved Minnesota’s defense last week, but that was an anomoly as the Vikings have been great on that side of the ball all season. The Cardinals have also been great on defense. But with Kevin Kolb and Ryan Williams both out and an offense ranking in the bottom five in the NFL in both passing and rushing, where are the points going to come from? I expect Minnesota to hold Arizona to 10 points or less, and with Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin on offense the Vikings should be able to get enough points to cover. My model says 21-13 Minnesota, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was even lower scoring than that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
OVER/UNDER 40: $UNDER 40

NY Jets (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
So the Jets ran all over one of the worst rushing defenses in the league last week to earn a blowout win. Good for them. Now, they go on the road to face a very angry New England team that has one of the league’s best rushing defenses. The Patriots consistently score into the 30’s when they face the Jets, and now they don’t even have to deal with Darrelle Revis. When New England takes that early double-digit lead and Mark Sanchez has to start throwing the ball, how do you like New York’s chances? The X’s and O’s are all in New England’s favor and the high-low element is as well. I think this one ends up being the biggest blowout on the board this week. I can’t see New England failing to score 30 or New York getting past 17.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Oakland (-4.0)
After almost upsetting Atlanta with a gutsy effort last week and facing a team that went into its bye week off of a 41-3 loss, the Oakland Raiders as a four-point favorite are suddenly one of the most popular picks on the board this week. It makes sense; Blaine Gabbert is one quarterback the Raiders should be able to handle. But I actually think Jacksonville pulls off the upset this week. With a bye week to stew over that blowout loss and to prepare for the Raiders, Jacksonville should be ready with its best effort. And honestly, Oakland is an easy team to prep for. Greg Knapp’s offense has been predictable and the defense is mired with tons of holes in personnel. Oakland my eke out the win at home, but with two fairly evenly-matched bad teams taking the field, four points is a gift in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Cincinnati (+1.5)
Ah right, this game. Guess the Dallas at Carolina game isn’t the only one I’m guessing on after all. With Troy Polamalu out, this Pittsburgh defense is suddenly very vulnerable. But has Cincinnati really looked any better this year? Both of these teams have underachieved. The difference being that one I expected to be a Super Bowl contender this year (Pittsburgh) and the other I expected to take a step backwards. So both coming in off of embarrassing losses and both needing a win badly to stay in the playoff hunt, I’ll go with the team I liked more coming into the season once again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Detroit (+6.0) @ Chicago (-6.0)
The Chicago Bears are a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball. That well-oiled machine has had a bye week to prepare for this game while its division rival was wrapped up in a tough overtime battle against Philadelphia. And the last time the Bears played in primetime, they were humiliated in a terrible performance against the Green Bay Packers. Chicago is the better team, my model has the game at Chicago 31 -13, and motivation and rest are on the Bears’ side too. What’s not to love? I know, I know, it is still Jay Cutler. But other than that, what’s not to love?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 20 – 23 – 0 (.465)

Week 8 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-8/

Rutgers -5.5
Notre Dame -13.5
Colorado +40.5
Louisiana Tech -30.5
Virginia Tech/Clemson Over 61.5
Georgia/Kentucky Over 58.0
Washington/Arizona Over 61.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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