All teams are starting the 2009 MLB season with some injuries, but identifying which teams can hold their own while star players are out and which teams are in early trouble is the key.  The Yankees will miss Alex Rodriguez at least until late May, but should be able to weather that storm while the Seattle Mariners will be without the heart and soul of their team with Ichiro Suzuki sidelined by a bleeding ulcer.

Like any other year, the 2009 baseball season will see a slew of key players on the disabled list before the season even begins. Finding which teams can take these injuries in stride and which teams will fall apart because of them can help contribute to a profitable April.

Injuries in sports are a regular occurrence, as is their use as an excuse among fans. When their team is winning while their star player is watching from the sidelines, fans talk about how the team stepped up in the player’s absence and came together as a team. When the team is losing, fans argue they wouldn’t be losing if it weren’t for injuries.

These stances, while vastly overused by the common fan, aren’t always inaccurate. Not all injuries are created equal; some can cripple a team’s spirits on and off the field while others can lift the team to carry the load in their teammate’s absence. It all depends on coaching, the maturity of the players, and of course the depth of a team’s reserves; you can be as mature as you want, but without talent, it is tough to win in the big leagues.

So let’s take a look at five of the key injuries this season, and whether or not they should affect your betting patterns.

BE CAUTIOUS BETTING OR CONSIDER FADING

BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
Considering the fact that there were already a number of reasons to fade the Rays early in the season which I went over in my article aptly titled “Fade the Tampa Bay Rays in April,” losing one of their best young hitters doesn’t do much to change my mind. After a surprisingly powerless regular season with only nine home runs, Upton finally flashed the power that scouts and fans had been waiting for, hitting seven home runs in the postseason.

Add on the fact that he stole over 40 bases last year, and Upton is one of the most important pieces to this young Rays offense. The injury shouldn’t keep Upton out too long, but if you weren’t convinced to stay away from betting the Rays before this injury, you may want to consider jumping the fence now.

Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Take away the heart and soul of one of the worst teams in baseball. Then take away their best defensive player. While you are at it, take away their best offensive player and their best base runner. Oh, wait, this is exactly what has happened.

There won’t be a whole lot of money to be made fading this team as there will be some big numbers on the favorite on the other side, but please do yourself a favor and don’t get tempted by huge dog numbers. Don’t rationalize betting them because they are a home dog and King Felix or Eric Bedard is on the mound. Save yourself the agony, at least until Ichiro gets back.

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers
If you bet the Brew Crew much last year, you know all about the pain and agony of trying to get through the late innings of a game with this team. Bringing in Hoffman was a smart move; despite the fact that he is past his prime and much more hittable in his old age, he is still a serviceable closer that will get you the win much more often than not. His injury bumps Carlos Villanueva into the closer role, who I think will do fine there, but lacks experience in the may become a factor.

But he isn’t the one I’m worried about; it is bridging the gap from starter to closer that has me scratching my head. Handing the ball off to Seth McClung, Todd Coffey, David Riske, or Jorge Julio to get key outs in the later innings of the game just makes me shudder. I’m not suggesting ignoring the Brewers completely; their offense can hit with anyone, and young pitchers like Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra will be well worth a look. I’m just pointing out that betting this team will not be for the faint at heart in the early stages of this season; and no one will want to hear you complain that you had the lead the whole game and got screwed. You didn’t. Bullpens are a part of baseball, too, as many teams and bettors know all too well.

DON’T WORRY ABOUT IT TOO MUCH

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
It certainly doesn’t help to have one of the best hitting catchers in the league on the DL to start the season. But you don’t really bet the Twins for their high-powered offense (as they don’t have one, even with Mauer in lineup). Guys like Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn will still likely be found at a good value early in the season (as will Scott Baker when he returns from the DL), and Jason Kubel should take a big step forward this season and help Justin Morneau carry this offense until Mauer gets back. There is enough young talent and speed in this lineup to produce runs without Mauer, and I hope the books overcompensate for his absence and give us even better numbers than they would have if he were in the lineup.

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Not many lineups can lose the best hitter in baseball and take it in stride; but the New York Yankees are one of them. With Mark Teixeira, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Xavier Nady, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, and Jorge Posada still powering the lineup, this team will never be easy to pitch against. With a much improved starting rotation and a great bullpen to go with it, this Yankees team should still perform at an elite level without their best bat in the lineup.

Then again, did it really matter what I wrote here? Yankee haters and faders were going to bet against this team regardless preaching about value on the underdogs, and Yankee fans and lovers were going to bet them every night preaching about this being their year anyway.

Whether you agree or disagree with my assessments on these players’ injuries, make sure to always stay on top of your injury news! Not being caught off guard when the team you bet is missing a great player (or perhaps more importantly, betting against teams missing great players before the public moves the line) will be a key to your handicapping success in 2009.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/MLB/10713/factoring-injuries-into-early-season-mlb-betting.aspx)

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