2012 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Conference Championship Week

By , January 19, 2013 7:00 pm

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

With three games to go in the playoffs, I’ve already locked up a winning record ATS. Way to go me!

In just about 12 hours from when I’m writing this, the Los Angeles Kings will raise their Stanley Cup Banner to the ceiling of Staples Center and the 2013 NHL season will get underway.

24 hours later, the Championship round of the NFL playoffs will be kicking off in Atlanta.

Fun little weekend for sports. Hopefully capped off with another poker tourney win for me in the Commerce Casino Facebook Tourney Sunday night!

In any case, hope you all have a great weekend and enjoy the football. We’re only three games away from a loooooong offseason, so soak them in!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
Over/Under: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
$Money Picks$: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Playoffs
With the spread: 6 – 2 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 5 – 3 – 0 (.625)
Over/Under: 5 – 3 – 0 (.625)
$Money Picks$: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 162 – 93 – 1 (.640)
^Philosophy Picks^: 12 – 21 – 0 (.363)
$Money Picks$: 34 – 33 – 2 (.507)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

#4 Baltimore (+9.5) @ #1 Denver (-9.5) OVER 46
#3 Green Bay (+2.5) @ #2 San Francisco (-2.5)
#5 Seattle (+2.5) @ #1 Atlanta (-2.5)
#3 Houston (+9.5) @ #2 New England (-9.5)
#3 Houston (+9.5) @ #2 New England (-9.5) OVER 47.5

THE BAD

#4 Baltimore (+9.5) @ #1 Denver (-9.5)
#3 Green Bay (+2.5) @ #2 San Francisco (-2.5) UNDER 45
#5 Seattle (+2.5) @ #1 Atlanta (-2.5) UNDER 46

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

SUNDAY

#2 San Francisco (-4.0) @ #1 Atlanta (+4.0)
My head says San Francisco here, and after Colin Kaepernick’s performance against Green Bay last week, who’s wouldn’t? I also feel that the 49ers are the better team. But you know what? I’m going with the Falcons. Last week I was sure that the Seahawks were going to beat them, and for three quarters the Falcons dominated that game. And they did so in ways I’d never have expected, with a powerful and effective running game and a great job on defense of stuffing the run, two things they didn’t show all year. This week, they face a San Francisco team that is built almost exactly the same as Seattle is; young up-and-coming star at quarterback, elite veteran running back, top-notch defense. So what’s to say the game will play out so much differently? Considering I think San Francisco is the better team and that Harbaugh is the better coach, I don’t love that I’m picking against the 49ers here… but the defense has shown vulnerability against elite passing attacks (30+ points allowed against Green Bay and New England), and my gut tells me Matt Ryan has a big day at home and leads his Falcons to an upset to gain some of the respect this team continues to lack.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
OVER/UNDER 48.5: Over (34-31 Atlanta)

#4 Baltimore (+8.0) @ #2 New England (-8.0)
I’m not sure how anyone can be thinking about giving Baltimore eight points in this game. I’m not saying that the Patriots aren’t capible of winning this game by double-digits; with this offense, of course they are. But in the last six meetings between these teams, only one game has been decided by more than six points, and that was when Baltimore stomped New England 33-14 in the playoffs back in 2010. Furthermore, Baltimore has allowed more than 27 points to New England only once in their last eight games; and that was when the Ravens beat the Pats 31-30 earlier this season. Now granted, past trends and results should always be taken with a grain of salt, but let’s also factor in how high of a level Baltimore is playing at in the playoffs since Ray Lewis returned. After crushing the Colts, Baltimore ended Denver’s 11-game winning streak with an improbable upset win last week. And while the 35 points against look bad, remember that 21 of them came on special teams. Baltimore outplayed New England last year in the AFC Championship but came up just short, something the Ravens aren’t likely to have forgotten. I kind of feel like an upset might be coming, but I’m not quite ballsy enough to pick against Brady and Belichick at home in this spot. I will gladly take the points, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 51: Over (28-27 New England)

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 40 – 37 – 1 (.519)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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