2013 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 2

By , September 12, 2013 12:00 pm

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

See the difference?

I unveiled my new system this year which brilliantly differentiates the confidence that I have in each pick.

With my incredible cognitive capacity, I know which picks are true winners, and which ones I’m merely forced to make for the sake of the Dime. And this year, I figured out a way to let you in on my true brilliance, separating these picks with simple little signs ($, /, and ?) so that even if you aren’t on the same wavelength as my super-human football brain is, you could still follow along.

The results were staggering.

PICKS: 3-3-1

LEANS 4-4-0

SEE THE DIFFERENCE?

While the leans went .500, the picks went SUPER .500; that’s .500 with a tie! That’s how good I am at this! Amazing, right?!?

I still can’t believe I send this thing out for free. Kings and Princes in nations around the world would pay vast fortunes for my brilliantly accurate coin-flipping ability. I mean sure, they could just flip a coin instead, but where is the fun in that? That doesn’t take hours and hours of pointless research, game-watching, article-reading, stat-crunching, etc.

All kidding aside, I’m thrilled to go about .500 last week. The NFL didn’t take long to remind us that all of our preseason banter and predicting is good for nothing, did it?

THE RECORD

Last Week
Spread “Picks”: 3 – 3 – 1 (.500)
Spread “Leans”: 4 – 4 – 0 (.500)
Spread “Coin Flips”: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)
With the spread: 7 – 8 – 1 (.467)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)

Season
Spread “Picks”: 3 – 3 – 1 (.500)
Spread “Leans”: 4 – 4 – 0 (.500)
Spread “Coin Flips”: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)
With the spread: 7 – 8 – 1 (.467)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

(/) Baltimore (+7.5) @ Denver (-7.5)
(/) Miami (+1.0) @ Cleveland (-1.0)
(/) Atlanta (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
(/) Tennessee (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
($) Seattle (-3.5) @ Carolina (+3.5)
($) Kansas City (-4.0) @ Jacksonville (+4.0)
($) Arizona (+4.5) @ St. Louis (-4.5)
($) Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0) TIE

THE BAD

(/) New England (-9.5) @ Buffalo (+9.5)
($) Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ NY Jets (+3.5)
(?) Minnesota (+5.5) @ Detroit (-5.5)
($) Oakland (+10.0) @ Indianapolis (-10.0)
(/) Green Bay (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5)
($) NY Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)
(/) Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Washington (-3.5)
(/) Houston (-3.5) @ San Diego (+3.5)

THE PICKS

($) – Indicates a “Pick”, which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) – Indicates a “Lean”, which is the side that I’m leaning towards
(?) – Indicates a “Coin Flip”, where I don’t have much of an opinion
* – Indicates Outright Upset Pick

THURSDAY

($) NY Jets (+11.0) @ New England (+11.0)
I must be out of my mind, actually upgrading this game to a “pick”, especially when the Patriots are far and away my biggest “trouble team” to pick over the last few years. But while I’m not really sold on the Jets being more than a bottom feeder, the defense did look great in last week’s win over Tampa Bay. And New England’s offense looks suspect; and now it could be even worse with Amendola ruled out with a groin injury. There just aren’t any weapons here. I’m sure Brady will make it work, but should this team as it currently looks on paper be a double-digit favorite over anyone? Factor in the fact that the Jets have extra motivation to avoid national humiliation after the last time these two teams played (butt fumble, anyone?) and I sincerely believe the Jets make a game of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

SUNDAY

($) St. Louis (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
This one I was right on the fence about at first, but with St. Louis coming off of an emotional come-from-behind win at home against a division rival and Atlanta coming off of a last-minute-goal-line-stand loss on the road against a division rival, the “philosopy”/emotion side of this game leans pretty heavily towards Atlanta. Factor in also that the Falcons have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and the Rams have struggled on the road in recent years, and all signs seem to point to a Falcons win and cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

($) Carolina (-2.5) @ Buffalo (+2.5)
Carolina played incredibly on defense last week, and was understandably shut down by one of the league’s best defenses against the Seahawks. Going up against a much softer defense this week in Buffalo, I think Cam Newton will have a big day and lead the Panthers to their first win of the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

(/) Minnesota (+6.0) @ Chicago (-6.0)
Minnesota is going to have a down year this year, and the more I pay attention to Chicago the more I hate the fact that I bet on them to finish with under 8.5 wins on the season. Sure, we could get our standard Jay Cutler second-half meltdown, but the Bears still have an excellent defense and can do enough on offense to win footbal games.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

(/) Washington (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
So one bad half and all of a sudden everyone is over Robert Griffin III? Were you watching the second half? I know that he’s not 100%, and he’s obviously not going to be as mobile as he was last year. But Green Bay’s defense had problems last year, and if Week 1 was any indication those problems haven’t been corrected. This game looks to me to have the makings of a shootout, and I’ll take the side with the extra touchdown on the pointspread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

(/) Miami (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
If Week 1 was an accurate portrayal of both of these teams, Miami will win this game. The Dolphins looked great on defense, and the Colts looked pedestrian at home against what should be a very bad Raiders team this year. With that said, a hot mobile quarterback can make anyone look bad, and Miami’s defense gets a slightly tougher test in Andrew Luck compared to Brandon Weeden. Very interesting game and test for both teams here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

(?) Dallas (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0)
This is the one game on the board that I can’t wrap my head around. I still don’t know what to think about the Cowboys after that bizarre Sunday night game. And while I’m high on the Chiefs this year, a blowout win against Jacksonville doesn’t really tell us anything. Forced to make a pick, I like Dallas slightly better on paper, but this is one that I haven’t got a clue on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas

($) Cleveland (+6.0) @ Baltimore (-6.0)
Easily my favorite pick of the week. The defending Super Bowl Champions, who should have been playing at home but weren’t due to a Baltimore Orioles home game, were forced to go on the road last week; where they got completely manhandled and embarrassed in front of millions nationwide. This week they return home, lift the Super Bowl banner, and get to take out their aggression on a team that they have won 10 straight games against (with a 7-3 against the spread record). Does it shape up any better than this?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

(/) Tennessee (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5)
Not quite willing to lay this many points on a “$” pick as I don’t know how much Houston has left in the tank after that incredible comeback in the second half on Monday night. But make no mistake about it, the Titans’ upset over the Steelers was more of an indication of how bad Pittsburgh is than how good Tennessee is. This is a game that the Texans should be able to handle very easily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

(/) San Diego (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
Lost in all of the hoopla about Philadelphia’s amazing new offense (and it is amazing!) is the fact that this team is still susceptable on defense, as the second half revealed. In fact, if Washington hadn’t have shot itself in the foot so many times in the first half, the Redskins probably would have won the game. I think the Eagles will win this one, but like the Chargers’ offense to keep this one close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

(/) Detroit (-1.5) @ Arizona (+1.5)
I still love Arizona’s defense and the offense looked good last week… but what is to stop Detroit’s outstanding passing attack from doing what St. Louis’s eventually did, wearing out the Cardinals and coming away with a victory? Maybe home field advantage? Maybe Detroit remembers how to choke? Not sure, but I’m going with the Cards.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

(/) New Orleans (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
Tampa Bay has given New Orleans trouble in recent years, and this just “feels” like one of those likely spots for it to crop up, one week after New Orleans returned to NFL prominance with an impressive win over Atlanta. The Saints left it all on the field in that emotional win while the Bucs were a laughing stock after coughing one up to the lowly Jets last week… I’m going with my gut and saying that the Bucs pull off an upset here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

($) Jacksonville (+5.5) @ Oakland (-5.5)
I dreamed of a day that I’d be thrilled to be taking the Raiders as a favorite. Sadly, that day isn’t here because the Raiders have returned to splendor, but instead because they happen to be playing a team that is even more pathetic than they are. Jacksonville is dreadful on both sides of the ball. Oakland, meanwhile, actually looked good on both sides of the ball this week, and clearly have life on offense with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. Oakland….. rolls to an easy win?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

($) Denver (-4.5) @ NY Giants (+4.5)
Did you see the game last Thursday night? Great, so I don’t need to continue then. Denver has picked up right where it left off last season, and amazingly enough might be even better on offense this year. New York will bounce back from last week’s ugly performance against the Cowboys eventually, but I don’t think it’ll be this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

(/) San Francisco (+3.0) @ Seattle (-3.0)
What a game this is going to be. Great coaching dual, great quarterback dual, great running back dual, great smash-mouth defense dual. This one is shaping up to be one of the NFL’s most anticipated rivalries over the next few years. Oh, I have to make a pick instead of just marveling? Damn. I could so easily go either way on this one, but when in doubt, never ever pick against the Seattle Seahawks at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

MONDAY

(/) Pittsburgh (+6.5) @ Cincinnati (-6.5)
I am very high on the Bengals this year and very low on the Steelers, especially after last week’s disasterous display. But that embarrassing game could serve as motivation for the Steelers, as will not falling to a near-fatal 0-2 record on the season. Plus, I still respect the heck out of the Steeler defense, so I don’t love giving this team a lot of points. So in the end, I’m going with Cinci, but wussing out on the “$” for these reasons.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 6 – 6 – 0 (.500)

Week 3 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2013-college-football-picks-week-3

Texas Tech +3
Oklahoma -24
Virginia Tech -7.5
Louisville -13.5
Oregon -27.5
Alabama -7.5
Ole Miss +2.5
UCLA/Nebraska OVER 70
Boston College/USC UNDER 43

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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