David ‘Big Papi’ Ortiz and Daisuke ‘Dice K’ Matsuzaka hold the keys to whether or not the Boston Red Sox return to the playoffs for a sixth time in seven seasons.

Now that the AL East is no longer just a two horse race, will the Red Sox find a way to separate from the pack, or will they be on the outside looking in?

Projected Lineup and Rotation (per www.cbssports.com)

Lineup
Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
Dustin Pedroia (2B)
David Ortiz (DH)
Kevin Youkilis (1B)
Jason Bay (LF)
J.D. Drew (RF)
Mike Lowell (3B)
Jed Lowrie (SS)
Jason Varitek (C)

Rotation
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Brad Penny
Tim Wakefield

Being of the belief that the Tampa Bay Rays will not have a big drop off this year and coupling that with the fact that I have the Yankees penciled into a playoff spot, I was just about ready to write off the Red Sox this year. That is, of course, until I took a good look at their roster.

Now I don’t know what to think.

HITTING

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia make up a very nice 1-2 punch at the top of the batting order. Ellsbury is lethal on the basepads, swiping 50 bases last year, just four shy of Tommy Harper’s Red Sox franchise record. The only problem with Ellsbury last year was his relatively low .336 on base percentage (especially considering his .280 batting average), but there is no reason to believe he can’t take a step forward this season as he learns more patience at the plate in his second full year in the bigs.

Pedroia meanwhile has taken no time at all to establish himself as a 5-tool-player, winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2007 (with a .317 batting average) and the AL MVP and a Gold Glove award in 2008 (with a .326 batting average). His average alone makes him dangerous on a team with a heart of the order like the Red Sox’, but tack on a bit of pop in his bat (17 home runs in ’08) and excellent base running skills (20 stolen bases to one caught stealing last year), and you have a premiere hitter in the 2-spot.

David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Bay make up a mammoth heart of the order, assuming last season was an aberration for David Ortiz and wasn’t one for Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis’ batting average has improved with each full season he’s played (.279 in 2006, .288 in 2007, .312 in 2008), so it isn’t unrealistic to believe that his path to last year’s break out year was a legitimate one. The surprising stat was the home run category, jumping from 13 and 16 in 2006 and 2007 to 29 in 2008. This season will be very telling as to whether or not Youkilis has made the leap into being a true power threat.

Ortiz’s season is perhaps the most important for the Boston Red Sox. Affectionately known as Big Papi, Ortiz is the emotional leader of this club, especially with the likes of Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, and Curt Schilling no longer on board. Jason Varitek is the team’s captain and is a good presence off the diamond, but he is an awful hitter. Ortiz on the other hand has not only been the heart and soul of this team off the field, on it he had compiled four straight monster seasons, averaging 152 games played, 111 runs, 44 homeruns, 135 RBIs, and a .304 batting average from 2004-2007.

Last season injuries slowed Ortiz down in a big way as he only played 109 games and batted an uncharacteristically weak .264. Come playoff time, when Ortiz is usually a dominant force (31 runs, 9 homeruns, 30 RBIs, .381 batting average in 31 playoff games from 2004-07), he hit only .186, looking more like an easy out then the dominant plate presence he has been for years.

If Ortiz can stay healthy and even come close to what he was before last year’s struggles, the emotional and production boost might be enough to put the Red Sox over the top offensively.

Depth guys like Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay and Brad Wilkerson make for good options off the bench if their services are needed.

PITCHING

While the Red Sox have some question marks on their staff (like every other team in the league), they do have one very nice thing going for them; depth. The ability to mix and match to find the right rotation, as well as the ability to fill guys in when injuries occur is an important thing to have.

Josh Beckett is coming off of a good (not great) season, slowed down a bit by injuries. A return to 2007 form (20 wins, 3.27 ERA) would certainly make Terry Francona and the Red Sox Nation very happy. But even if he doesn’t, when healthy he should still pitch well enough to give this offense a chance to win just about every time out.

I’m a bit of a skeptic when it comes to a player’s first great season in the big leagues. I’ve seen one too many players put together a great season or two only to return to mediocrity for good shortly afterwards.  I’m not saying this will be the case for Daisuke Matsuzaka or Jon Lester at all; I’m simply saying that I’m not as willing as most people are to pencil them both in as bona fide No. 2 and No. 3 starters when last season was the first time either had pitched below a 4.40 ERA for a season.

Matsuzaka is a well-documented favorite to come crashing back down to earth, as 18-3, 2.90 ERA is way too tidy for a pitcher that gives so many batters free passes. Yes, Matsuzaka deserves credit for pitching his way out of these jams, but math and reason dictate that a pitcher can only get away unscathed from loading the bases so many times.

As for Beckett, I believe that even if there is regression from last season these two are still more than capable to give their team a chance to win on most nights. It would just be wise to tread with caution with your projections on these two relatively unproven commodities.

The bottom of the rotation will be filled out by some combination of Brad Penny, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz and eventually John Smoltz. Penny and Smoltz were both excellent injury-risk gambles by the Red Sox; Penny, when healthy, is a very capable pitcher, and Smoltz has still shown dominant stuff even in his older age when healthy. If either of them pan out they will make a great addition to this staff.

Masterson and Buchholz are two bright young arms in the Red Sox system, with Masterson being pegged higher on the depth chart due to having more success at the major league level so far in their young careers. Wakefield is simply an inning eater that can be used wherever Francona needs him.

Early projections look like Penny and Wakefield will start the season at No. 4 and No. 5, Masterson will head to the bullpen, Buchholz to Triple-A and Smoltz to the IR or DL. Manager Terry Francona will be able to shuffle as he sees fit, and I eventually see Masterson earning a rotation spot through injuries or the faltering of the bottom of the rotation.

BETTING

The Greek has the Red Sox going off at +550 to win it all and the Over/Under on regular season wins is set at 95.5 (Over -120, Under +100). I like the Under here; 96 wins is a very difficult feat, especially when you play in the same division as two of the AL’s best teams in the Yankees and Rays. There are just too many injury risks here, and while they seem to have the depth on paper to overcome them and stay in the pennant race, -120 seems like a high price to pay to grab 96 wins.

The +550 World Series price isn’t a terrible gamble at that price considering this team’s poise and recent success in the playoffs, but it is still a bit lower then I’d personally consider tying my money up for so long for.

On the spot prediction: 92 to 95 wins, second in the AL East, Wild Card Berth.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/MLB/10615/boston-red-sox-part-three-horse-race-al-east.aspx)

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