With the 2009 season fast approaching, could a World Series hangover and the decision to send young southpaw David Price to the minors lead to a slow start out of the gate for the Tampa Bay Rays?

I’d like to start off with a disclaimer: I’m not one of those people that are writing last season off as a fluke for the Rays. They were and are an excellent young team, and as they continue to improve on an individual level as well as gel as a unit, there is good reason to believe they will be a serious contender in the AL East for years to come.

As I always like to point out when I mention tailing or fading a team, I never recommend doing so blindly. Looking over a particular game’s match up, you may love the Rays at a certain price, or strongly dislike the price the books are giving you on the other side. Picking your spots is never a bad idea.

Articles like this one are just giving you an angle to consider. And with that, lets look at a few reasons why the Rays might be worth betting against in the early stages of the 2009 season.

WORLD SERIES HANGOVER

Surviving a 162-game regular season, a best-of-five wild card round, and a best-of-seven league championship series to get to the World Series takes a physical and emotional toll on a team. It is difficult for many teams, especially ones that seemingly “come out of nowhere,” to come fresh out of the gate the next season and match the same intensity and enthusiasm they had the year before.

Over the last three years, only the Boston Red Sox have made it to the World Series and then made the playoffs the following year. Colorado did not last year, Detroit and St. Louis did not in 2007, and Houston and Chicago did not in 2006.

There is more to this than just the emotional “hangover” aspect. With success comes respect; and instead of a team finding itself flying under the radar, they find themselves with a huge target on their back. Opposing teams that look at the schedule and see the Tampa Bay Rays are no longer thinking “easy win” or looking ahead to the series after it, they are instead circling that series as an important one against the defending American League Champions.

This is true of the reverse as well. As an underdog trying to prove the world wrong, it is much easier to play high energy nothing-to-lose baseball than it is as an established winner. It is a lot easier to second guess gutsy calls or stolen base attempts in games you are supposed to win as opposed to games you have no business winning.

DAVID PRICE IN TRIPLE-A: SENDING THE WRONG MESSAGE?

Unlike the Evan Longoria situation last year when the Rays were trying to save themselves an extra year until arbitration, David Price is signed through the 2012 season, so that really shouldn’t be a motivating factor here. Then again, it is hard to believe that the arbitration clock has nothing to do with it when looking at all the facts.

As the front office is explaining it, they want to closely monitor Price’s innings and pitch count this season, and allow him some more time to develop in the minors.

Interesting. Couldn’t they monitor his innings and pitch count in the big leagues?

Last season in the regular season, Price appeared in five games, pitching in 14 innings. He had a 1.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts. In the postseason he pitched 5.2 innings with a 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, eight strikeouts, a win, and a save.

In 8.1 innings pitched this spring, he continued where he left off last year, allowing only one run and striking out 10. Price was the first overall pick in 2007, and is the top ranked pitching prospect in baseball as well as the 2008 Minor League Player of the Year.

It is a very difficult sell to try and convince anyone that this guy doesn’t deserve to be in the majors right now, especially after the impact he had on the team in the playoffs last season. Whether the front office is really this anal about his delivery and development or if they are just trying to save themselves some money down the line is irrelevant to me; I’m looking at what effect this move could potentially have on the players on the active roster.

And no matter what the front office or the manager was telling me, if I was a player on the Rays I’d be extremely upset. The front office is coming outright and saying, “This move is for our success long-term.” But what about the present? Stuck in the toughest division in baseball with two of the league’s juggernauts, Tampa Bay needs to put their best players out there every single night to have a chance to stay alive in this race. Taking a player of this caliber away from a team for the sake of the future sends the message that you are conceding the present, whether that is actually true or not.

As a player, having in the back of your mind the fact that ownership does not believe that this team can win right now on top of not having a teammate that you know would give you a better chance to win with you might have some adverse affect on you. Even if these thoughts are buried deep in the back of a player’s mind, they can still cause tension in the locker room and mistakes on the field.

VALUE

When a new season is just beginning, bookmakers have limited information to set lines on, and public perception can factor in as well. Due to Tampa Bay’s success last year and the public’s new found respect for them, when they find themselves playing against teams not named the Yankees and Red Sox, they will likely find themselves getting unfavorable money line and run line numbers. Finding good numbers on the other side shouldn’t be too rare of an occurrence.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Tampa Bay Rays have a great baseball team full of plenty of young players with their best years still ahead of them. They shouldn’t be taken lightly at any point next season, not even the early stages that I’ve highlighted here.

That said, even the best teams in the league aren’t immune to getting rattled or having bad stretches over the course of a long season, and this is even truer of a team as young as the Rays are. My hunch is that this will be exactly what happens to start off 2009, and fading the Rays will be a profitable affair in April and maybe part of May as well.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/MLB/10640/fade-tampa-bay-rays-april.aspx)

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