MLB Divisional Series Predictions

By , October 6, 2010

I don’t want to spend too much time re-hashing all of the great players on each team and a bunch of other stuff you already know or can find elsewhere (here’s a great start – http://espn.go.com/mlb/). Instead, I’m just going to give my predictions, and the thought processes behind them. Some will be long, others short. Enjoy.

American League

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

In a seven game series, I’d be taking the Rays. Tampa Bay is arguably the most well-rounded team in the entire league, and they have more playoff experience, too. But Texas isn’t that far off from Tampa Bay with a formidable offense and pitching staff of their own, and taking a closer look at the way this series shapes up, a Rangers upset doesn’t seem too far out of the question.

Texas has a great chance of stealing one in the first two games. David Price has been one of the AL’s best pitchers all season long, and Cliff Lee has faltered at points this season; but this is Cliff Lee we are talking about. When he is on he is nearly unhittable, and if last year’s postseason run with Philadelphia is any indication (five starts, 4-0, 1.56 ERA), he will be ready to shine. Game One is a toss-up.

James Shields takes the mound for the Rays in Game Two, and has been the weak link on this staff this season. C.J Wilson has been sharp all season, and should give the Rangers another solid chance at a win. Splitting the two games in Tampa Bay seems quite realistic to me.

A split in Texas seems quite realistic, too. On top of how jazzed up the fan base should be after a long playoff drought, Matt Garza struggled through September and doesn’t pitch as well as he does at home (8-2, 3.51 ERA) on the road (7-8, 4.27 ERA). And Wade Davis will be making his first playoff start against a team that torched him (8 earned runs in 3.1 innings).

Which would set up game five in Tampa Bay, with two of the game’s best this year in Price and Lee once again. I’d consider the Rays a slight favorite in just about every game in this series, considering they have the slightly better team; but my gut tells me this one goes to five, and the Rangers come out on top.

Prediction: Rangers in 5

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has played some excellent baseball this year, and they won’t be as easy to push over for the Yankees as they were last year. That said, I still think they get pushed over.

Despite the fact that the Twins have a very respectable staff, I don’t think any of them (with the exception of Francisco Liriano) stand much of a chance against this fully-loaded Yankees offense. And going up against Liriano will be CC Sabathia, who is clearly up to the task of matching his elite pitching. Having Andy Pettitte back healthy is monumental for the Yankee’s pitching staff, considering the monumental collapses of Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett. Phil Hughes has been quite hittable since June, but that game will be back at Yankee stadium.

New York’s lack of sure-fire pitching depth after Sabathia (Pettitte’s health, Hughes’ inexperience) may hurt them at some point this offseason, but I don’t think it will be here. Minnesota will put up their share of runs, but it won’t be enough against the overwhelming Yankees.

Prediction: Yankees in 4

National League

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

Here’s another series that I’m feeling an upset in that I likely wouldn’t be if it wasn’t only five games. Neither of these offenses impresses me, and while I might give the slight edge to San Francisco, I think this series will come down strictly to pitching, as it has for most of the year with these two teams.

Tim Lincecum over Derek Lowe in the opener seems like an obvious choice, but Lowe has been pitching lights out in September, going 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 29 Ks in five starts. With the way he’s been pitching, he’ll at least give the Braves a chance.

Tommy Hanson vs. Matt Cain provides an interesting matchup in Game Two. You do have to lean towards Cain at home where he’s been masterful (2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), but Hanson isn’t afraid to pitch on the road either (3.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). And while Hanson has pitched brilliantly in two career starts against the Giants, Cain has pitched fairly pedestrian (4.03 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) in five career starts against Atlanta. I’d favor the Giants in both games one and two, but think Atlanta can steal one of them.

And then the series heads back to Atlanta, where the Braves earned the best home record in baseball (56-25). Tim Hudson likely wins Game Three over Jonathan Sanchez; I’m a big Sanchez fan, but he has pitched very poorly against Atlanta both over the course of his career and this year specifically, and he’s also still susceptible to being a bit wild.

If the series goes back to San Francisco for Game Five, I don’t see San Francisco losing it with Cain or Lincecum on the mound. But up 2-1 at home with the chance to advance to the next round, I could see the Braves pulling off the upset in front of their home fans. I say they find a way to shock everyone again and pull it off.

Prediction: Braves in 4

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati has been one of the best stories of this entire season, winning the NL Central and making the playoffs for the first time since 1995. Joey Votto has led one of the best offenses in the league, and this team appears to have a solid core in place to potentially become a perennial contender.

Which is good, because I can’t see this being their year.

Unless something drastic happens, I can’t see myself picking against Philadelphia at any point this post season. With the 1-2-3 punch of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, there just isn’t an opening to have a chance to hit against this team. And as if that isn’t scary enough for opposing teams, they still have an elite offense, too.

Cincinnati’s loyal fans have waited for a long time for their team to get back into the postseason, so I could see them willing their team to maybe stealing Game Three at home. But I don’t believe that will be the case.

Prediction: Phillies in 3

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