The Western Conference has been narrowed down to four teams, each a mere 12 wins away from winning the Cup.

So let’s once again try to figure out who is going to win these series, and how we can make some money betting them!

#2 Detroit Red Wings (-280) vs. #8 Anaheim Ducks (+240)
There aren’t many certainties when it comes to the NHL playoffs, but one thing is for sure; Detroit will not have such an easy series this time around.

Detroit was 4-0 on the moneyline (as a favorite in every game) and 3-1 on the puckline against Columbus, making it look very easy through the first three games until an exciting offensive shootout in game four which Detroit came out on top of 6-5. The series trended under (mainly due to Columbus’s inability to score in games one through three), finishing at 1-2-1.

Anaheim was 4-2 on the moneyline (as an underdog in every game) and 6-0 on the puckline against San Jose, winning four and losing by only one in both of the losses. You would have never known that San Jose was the prohibitive favorite from just watching the series; Anaheim outplayed San Jose for the majority of the series and clearly wanted it more. The series trended under but mostly ended in pushes at 1-2-3.

Anaheim’s upset was no real surprise to people that knew these teams. The Ducks are a team built for the playoffs, they play a very physical game and aren’t afraid to take penalties if it mean’s getting under their opponents skin. The penalty kill is great, but perhaps most importantly; this is a mentally tough team that KNOWS they can win. San Jose does not have that winning culture, and it clearly showed when these two teams clashed.

The problem in this series for the Ducks is that they run into another team that is equally mentally tough and confident in their own ability to win. What the Ducks lacked on paper against the Sharks they easily made up for by dominating in intangibles. Facing a team that is not only stronger on paper but also has the mental toughness to not get rattled by a loss or a hot goaltender, Anaheim certainly has their work cut out for them.

If the Ducks can’t keep the penalty minutes down, this Wings unit will make them pay for it. Detroit had the league’s best offense this year without question, and I believe they will overpower the Ducks and take this series. I wouldn’t bet the series price at -300 though; while the Wings are the better team, the Ducks are too strong both mentally and physically to eat such big chalk against, especially if Hiller can stay sharp; something I’m not expecting against this offense, but not out of the question.

The real money to be made on this series will be on the overs. While both teams trended under in the last round, that was due to their opponent’s offensive woes, not their own. In the three regular season match ups between these two teams, 7+ goals were scored in 3 of the 4. While there may be a defensive standoff or two, I believe this series will largely come down to who can outscore who, despite both of these team’s past reputations for defense.

Whatever you do, be careful eating huge chalk on a game to game basis on Detroit. Don’t let non-hockey fans fool you into believing last round was some kind of fluke; the Ducks are for real.

PREDICTION: Detroit Red Wings in 6
BETTING STRATEGY: Overs. If you like to bet correct series prices, I’d consider betting both Detroit in 6 and Detroit in 7, each going off at +365.

#3 Vancouver Canucks (-145) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (+125)
Vancouver swept their series against the Blues, going 4-0 on the moneyline (as a favorite in every game) and 1-3 on the puckline. Roberto Luongo and the Canucks defense kept the Blues’ offense at bay, leading the series to trend under (0-2-2)

Chicago’s series with Calgary had a little bit of everything, and was the only series in the west where one team was not the favorite in every game. Chicago was 3-0 moneyline as the favorite (at home) and 1-2 moneyline as the underdog (on the road). 5 of the 6 games were within a half goal of the 5.5 over/under mark in the series, which ended up splitting the over/under at 3 apiece (3-3-0)

Honestly I know this doesn’t help much from a betting standpoint, but this series really is more of the sit-back-and-enjoy type. While Vancouver is a balanced team with great special teams and an underrated offense, they really rely on their defense and goaltending to win them hockey games. Chicago meanwhile is also relatively well balanced, but they rely on their extremely dangerous offense to tip the scales.

In a series with two clashing styles, the edge often goes to the team that plays their particular brand of hockey “better”. When neither team is an obvious step above the other? You have an excellent series that is damn near impossible to cap. Any game can go either way, and the over under is anyone’s guess.

My advice? Just eat the chalk on Vancouver to win the series. Defense tends to win these battles in evenly matched cases, and unlike Calgary, Vancouver is capable of winning on the road. I see Vancouver getting to four wins first often enough to warrant a series bet at this price, and then just kicking back and enjoying the show. Betting this series game by game looks to be more of an exercise in coin flipping technique to me.

PREDICTION: Vancouver Canucks in 6
BETTING STRATEGY: If your book only takes series bets (not exact series result bets), take the Canucks to win the series. If you have series bets, I’d bet the Canucks in 6 (+405) and the Canucks in 7 (+365) instead, because I really don’t see this series ending in 5 or less.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10924/canucks-off-running-western-conference-semifinals.aspx)

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