Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I AM AN NFL PICKING MASTERMIND!

Or, I just got really lucky. But the mastermind thing sounds a lot cooler.

9-4-1 ATS and 10-4 straight up last week? Who am I, and what did I do with the real Dave, who couldn’t pick a winner to save his life?

I’d like to think it is hard work finally paying off, but with the way this wild season has been, maybe it was just an aberration. A very welcome aberration, mind you! After all, I’d rather be lucky than good. Because being “good” at sports knowledge hasn’t gotten me very far!

Well, in about 24 hours I should be completely drunk and chowing down on some Denny’s, which will seem like a great idea to drunken me while sober me would much prefer I reach for a salad. So it goes. Having an early Halloween party with some very good people, should be good times.

I am hoping for two things Sunday: coherency, and another winning week.

Asking too much? We’ll see.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 4 – 1 (.692)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 43 – 42 – 5 (.506)
Without the spread: 47 – 43 – 0 (.522)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 4 – 5 – 0 (.444)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
San Diego (-8.5) @ St. Louis (+8.5)
Baltimore (+2.5) @ New England (-2.5)
New Orleans (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay (+4.0)
Detroit (+10.0) @ NY Giants (-10.0)
Kansas City (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
NY Jets (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
Dallas (+1.5) @ Minnesota (-1.5)
Tennessee (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0) TIE

THE BAD

Seattle (+6.0) @ Chicago (-6.0)
Atlanta (+2.5) @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
Cleveland (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh (-13.5)
Oakland (+6.5) @ San Francisco (-6.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SUNDAY

Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
One bad game, and now all of a sudden everyone is off the Atlanta train? In favor of Cincinnati, who has looked awful on offense this year and keeps finding ways to beat themselves? Not saying this will be an easy one for Atlanta, but I do think they should be able to bounce back and pick up the win this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Washington (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
In the NFL, I believe one of the biggest motivators is coming off of a big loss at home and then playing again at home the following week. No travel is nice, as is a chance to redeem yourself to the home fans they let down the week before. On paper, I think Washington and Chicago match up pretty evenly, as both are great defensive teams. But I give the edge to Chicago coming off of last week’s embarrassing home loss to Seattle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

St. Louis (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
Same story as the game above, Tampa Bay got blown out in awful fashion last week at home against New Orleans. They are coming off of a terrible loss while St. Louis is coming off of a big win; seems like a good spot for Tampa Bay to come out strong and pick up a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

San Francisco (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
I know San Francisco is bad, but how is this spread only at three points? Doesn’t this just seem way too easy? SF has fought teams hard all year, while Carolina has been steamrolled in just about every game. They’ve scored less than 10 points in three of their five games. This spread looks way off to me, and the fact that it hasn’t moved all week is fishy to me, too. As you know, when it looks way too easy, I go the other way; I’ll take Carolina to win their first game of the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina

Buffalo (+13.0) @ Baltimore (-13.0)
Baltimore has already failed to cover one of these big spreads this year, and I don’t want to take the favorites in these very often. But Buffalo has given up 34+ points in their last four games, and facing an angry Baltimore team coming off of a loss, this may not be the week that that changes; and the offense should struggle against Baltimore’s tough defense. Baltimore should win this one in a blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Tennessee has a couple of Philosophy elements working against them; first, they’ve scored 30+ points for two straight weeks, a feat that is extremely hard to duplicate in consecutive weeks in the NFL and often leads to a letdown the following week. Coming off of a Monday Night Football win over a division rival also often creates a letdown spot. Tennessee has shown a propensity for having off games this season, and with Vince Young likely out and Philadelphia rolling… all signs point to Philadelphia.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Philadelphia

Jacksonville (+9.0) @ Kansas City (-9.0)
Hard to believe from my feelings about this team at the start of the season that I’d consider taking Kansas City -9.0 against anyone, but they have played extremely well this season and deserve a ton of respect. Jacksonville has been blown out multiple times this season, and I expect a similar result this week with Kansas City finally returning home and feeding off of the home crowd’s energy after two straight road games.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
Maybe I’m crazy, but I really think Miami is a much better team than they get credit for. It’ll take a top-notch effort from everyone, especially, Chad Henne, but I think they are capable of pulling off this upset at home this week. Roethlisberger will have to deal with a much tougher pass defense this week than he did last week against the lowly Browns, and I have a feeling he will make a few mistakes that will translate to points for Miami. It’s hard to pick against one of the league’s best teams, but I think the Dolphins have the defense to make a stand.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Cleveland (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
New Orleans had their best game of the season last week, and Cleveland had their worst. As a result, it isn’t much of a surprise that Cleveland is getting a ton of points. It also shouldn’t come as a surprise to regular readers that I’ll be taking the points on Cleveland; team coming off a big win vs. team coming off a big loss, I’m always siding with the frustrated team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Arizona (+6.5) @ Seattle (-6.5)
Not that Arizona is anything special, but I’m just not sold on this Seattle team yet. I do think they’ll win this one at home, where they seem to play at another level… but by a touchdown? It certainly isn’t impossible, but this is a division rivalry game against an Arizona team coming off of a bye and a win over New Orleans; I think they can keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

New England (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
New England coming off of another huge win, this time over Baltimore, San Diego coming off of another awful loss, this time to St. Louis. The fact that San Diego is favored in this game coming off of losses to St. Louis and Oakland is very fishy, even if they do play much better at home; who cares that they beat Arizona and Jacksonville big? This spread is just begging for action on New England’s side, so I’ll take Chargers and hope there is something in the water in SD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^San Diego

Oakland (+8.0) @ Denver (-8.0)
The Raiders get Darren McFadden back this week, which should provide a huge (and much-needed) boost to the offense. Oakland is coming off of an awful effort against San Francisco, but I still don’t believe that they should be an eight-point underdog to Denver, who aren’t exactly world beaters themselves. Oakland always plays Denver tough, and despite an awful lot of problems on both sides of the ball, I don’t think this week will be different.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5)
Yeah, we get it, Brett Favre going back to Green Bay, blah blah blah. Favre isn’t nearly as good as he was last year, and as a result, neither are the Vikings. Green Bay has also regressed due to a slew of injuries, but they may get back both Clay Matthews and Al Harris this week; either would provide a huge boost to the defense’s morale, and both would send it through the roof. Despite all of the injuries, after dropping both games to the Vikings last year, I think it is the Packers’ turn to get the win over Favre.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

MONDAY

NY Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Dallas needs this win, and badly. But what good did that do them when they needed it at home against Tennessee, or on the road against a struggling Minnesota team? It didn’t. Dallas continues to make costly mistakes and blow games, and New York does a great job forcing mistakes. Seems like a lot of people are picking Dallas to get their season back on track this week, while I’m picking the Giants to essentially end it Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Giants

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 21 – 24 – 1 (.467)

Week 8 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-8/

LSU +6
Rice +22.0
East Carolina -12.5
Washington State +34.5
South Carolina -12
Alabama -16.5
Oklahoma -3.0

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 7 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-7/
My College Football Top 25 for Week 8 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-8/

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!