2010 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 9
Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
THE INTRO
Last week, I said to “expect the unexpected”. I complained about my Philosophy Picks not winning, and bragged about my overall record.
Shocking, then, that I go 5-8 against the spread overall last week but 3-0 on Philosophy Picks.
Expect the unexpected…
So when you begin to expect the unexpected, it is the unexpected that becomes the expected, therefore the expected must occur for the unexpected to continue to be unexpected.
How’s that for philosophy?
Sorry, I’ve went and confused myself. What was I saying?
Oh yeah. Unexpected something or other. I just hope I didn’t jinx the Raiders, too, as I used their dominance as another example of the “unexpected”.
Feeling good about this week’s picks. Pretty sure that means absolutely nothing as far as their likely accuracy is concerned, but always better to feel confident heading into the week.
Especially when you are coming off of an 0-6 college, 5-8 pro weekend. Real confidence booster.
But hey, I’m always picking teams coming off of terrible weeks, so why can’t I pick myself coming off of a terrible week?
Can I be a philosophy pick… of myself?
You haven’t skipped down to the picks yet? I’m pretty sure I haven’t made a lick of sense since the get go here. I’ll spare you the trouble of trying to figure this nonsense out, and get on with some football stuff.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 8 – 0 (.385)
Without the spread: 6 – 7 – 0 (.462)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 3 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 56 – 56 – 5 (.500)
Without the spread: 61 – 56 – 0 (.521)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 8 – 7 – 0 (.533)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
Washington (+2.5) @ Detroit (-2.5)
Buffalo (+7.5) @ Kansas City (-7.5)
Carolina (+3.0) @ St. Louis (-3.0)
Tennessee (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5)
Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ New Orleans (-1.0)
THE BAD
Miami (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0)
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
Green Bay (+6.0) @ NY Jets (-6.0)
Denver (+2.0) @ San Francisco (-2.0)
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Minnesota (+6.0) @ New England (-6.0)
Seattle (+2.5) @ Oakland (-2.5)
Houston (+5.5) @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
SUNDAY
Tampa Bay (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Statistically, Tampa Bay probably shouldn’t be 5-2; but they are, and that says a lot about the type of team they are; they more often than not keep games close and find ways to win. Doubt they beat Atlanta, but I can’t pass on getting nine points in a division rivalry game between two teams that usually play close games.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
Chicago (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Chicago (and Jay Cutler) is falling back to earth, but they are still more than capable of handling Buffalo, especially with a bye week to prepare. Buffalo has lost two straight emotional overtime games on the road; some might think they finally get their win this week, I say they come out flat and lose again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
New England (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0)
So the team with the best record in football (with five straight wins) opens at -5.0 at Cleveland, people bet them heavily (over 80%), and the spread moves DOWN to 4.0? Bookmakers are just begging us to take New England here; even if you do respect Cleveland for beating New Orleans, hard to make a case that they can beat New England. But if the bookmakers like it (especially enough to move the line that way), so do I.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland
NY Jets (-4.0) @ Detroit (+4.0)
Embarrassing effort offensively by the Jets at home last week. Should be able to bounce back against Detroit’s defense this week; and Stafford will have his hands full trying to solve this tough Jets defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets
New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina (+6.5)
Very impressive win by New Orleans last week over Pittsburgh, but they’ve been wildly inconsistent this season. As bad as I think Carolina is, 6.5 points is a lot for a home team in a division rivalry, especially considering they kept their first game in New Orleans to just a two-point loss. I’ll say they keep it close again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Miami (+5.0) @ Baltimore (-5.0)
For whatever reason, Miami just loves playing on the road this season, with a bizarre split of 4-0 on the road and 0-3 at home. I like their defense and running game enough to keep this one close, but Baltimore likely finds a way to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
San Diego (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
There is a lot more to NFL football than the “total yards against” statistic, but San Diego ranks #1 at 260 yards against per game while Houston ranks #32 at 404.1 yards against per game. Considering the importance of defense in this league, I can’t take Houston with the way theirs has been playing. San Diego is due for their mid/late-season run too, aren’t they?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Arizona (+7.5) @ Minnesota (-7.5)
Minnesota has been awful this season, and the Randy Moss fiasco didn’t help. But whether it is Derek Anderson or Max Hall at quarterback, Arizona is simply inept at the position. In Minnesota, this is a game that the Vikings are more than capable of winning comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
NY Giants (-7.0) @ Seattle (+7.0)
New York is pretty clearly the superior team, but there is something about the way that Seattle plays at home. Despite getting gashed by the Raiders last week, Seattle’s rushing defense has been strong this season, and I think they can slow down New York’s attack. With a bit of their home field and special teams magic, I think they can at least keep this one close and bounce back from last week’s embarrassing effort.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
Another Philosophy Pick here; first, surprised to see Indianapolis GETTING points, considering they are coming off of an impressive win against Houston and have won three straight. 80+% of bettors are on Indianapolis, and as some of you may know, I like to go against teams coming off of Monday Night Football wins over division rivals. So it all adds up to a spectacular return for Michael Vick I suppose, and a Philadelphia victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
Kansas City (+1.0) @ Oakland (-1.0)
How many people would have guessed that this game would be between the two best rushing offenses in the league, and very relevant in the AFC West Title hunt, before the season started? Well here we are, and it is a tough one to call. The stats lean towards Kansas City, but Oakland has been playing at another level over the last few weeks; and at home, I actually think they claw out a win in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland
Dallas (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0)
Philosophy Picks come with all sorts of different tricks, but the fundamental principal of them is going against the grain. Does it get much more against-the-grain then picking this horrible Dallas team? Dallas is coming off of an embarrassing blowout loss at home to lowly Jacksonville, while Green Bay is coming off of a road shutout win over one of the NFL’s best teams, the NY Jets. Everyone has to be thinking Green Bay wins in this spot; I’ll go crazy and pick Dallas to win this one outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Dallas
MONDAY
Pittsburgh (-5.0) @ Cincinnati (+5.0)
And I’ll finish with one more surprising pick. Not quite a Philosophy Pick, but close; Cincinnati was favored last week at home and lost, and are an underdog at home this week; on Monday Night Football no less. You could also argue though that Pittsburgh lost in prime time last week, so the two motivational standpoints may wash out. But even though they’ve had a bad season to this point, getting five points at home in this physical rivalry, I’ll take Cincinnati; but not to win outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 25 – 33 – 1 (.431)
Week 10 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-10/
Miami -7.5
Boise State -21.0
Utah +4.5
UAB -10.0
Nevada -11.0
Oregon State -4.5
Arizona +9.5
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 9 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-9/
My College Football Top 25 for Week 10 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-10/
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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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good call on the Patriots / Browns